Alaska: Could it truly be a swing state between McCain and Obama?

The Tickets begs your indulgence; we are absolutely enthralled by the prospect of a barn-burner of a presidential race in Alaska. And although it's only August, a new poll suggests that such a prospect has a chance of becoming reality.

The survey by the Anchorage-based Hays Research Group on Aug. 6 and 7 found Barack Obama -- improbably to us -- leading John McCain, 45% to 40%, in the fight for Alaska's 3 electoral votes (which haven't gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 landslide).

True, the survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. And precedent argues that the Land of the Midnight Sun will revert to its true-red Republican form as election day nears.

But when we asked the poll's veteran research director, Anne Hays, when she last recalled anything as seemingly competitive as this year's presidential matchup appears to be in the state, she paused and said, "I don't think I was in business then."

And asked if she thought that competitiveness would be sustained into November, she replied, "I think we're definitely in play."

Obama, Hays said, is benefiting in part from scandals that have rocked Republicans -- the state's dominant political players -- in recent years. The spotlight on these miscues intensified recently with the indictment of Alaska's numero uno Republican, Sen. Ted Stevens, on federal charges related to a corruption probe.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Annie]

We love Alaska! Who said Alaska wasn't cool :-)
The Republican Mayor of Fairbanks just threw his support to Obama too!!!

[john]

I've observed politics since 1960, when I ran my high school's JFK support group. It seems unlikely that Alaska would go for Obama, although it is certainly understandable that the LA Times would be salivating at the prospect.

[Greg Whitworth]

Well, I live in Wasilla and work in Anchorage, Alaska and I have to say that this article is correct. I won't vote democratic but must admit that the republicans have shown the state little to vote for, and given the dems much to leverage. So, I think that for once the nation may stay awake to see how are votes were tallied - here's hoping.

--
Greg

[Mya]

I live in Alaska and the misinformation being put out by Obama's supporters is wrongly influencing people's votes right now. I believe this will be straightened out by the election. I have spoke with many supporters of his who wrongly believe that he supports drilling in ANWR while McCain is against it. Obama is strongly against drilling in ANWR. Most people in Alaska support drilling in ANWR as the oil companies pretty much singlehandedly are keeping our economy afloat here.

[maz hess]

When the polls in alaska are remaining that way obama will have to go to alaska once, if he likes it or not.

[gary grimes]

I lived up there for 11 years and the people by and large are anti-establishment types. I never understood why they voted Republican but I think it was just out of indifference and not really knowing the issues.......Viva the revolution!

[Cooday]

Alaska has some great candidates running against Representative Don Young in Ethan Berkowitz and Diane Benson. I wish we could send both Ethan and Diane to Washington DC. They have stuck to the issues with no attacks against each other so the Alaska Democrat Party will not be divided for the stretch run in the fall.

Mark Begich, a Democrat and the mayor of Anchorage, who is running for the Senate seat against Ted Stevens is anther great candidate.

Also this was National News when Republican Fairbanks North Star Borough Mayor Jim Whitaker endorsed Democrat Barack Obama. I saw this on KTUU.com. Alaska may surprise the nation.

All of the Democratic candidates can work across party lines with Republicans, Democrats and Independents in Washington DC and help end the Gridlock. Since the 2006 elections, the Republicans as a minority in both the Senate and Congress in Washington DC have proven that they can block bills. Its clear that the Alaska Democrat candidates are ready to work across party lines and provide the leadership that can bring results to Alaska.

All eyes will be on Alaska on election night. It would be national news if Obama and the Alaska Democrat team won in Alaska.

[Bill Barnes]

That the GOP can possibly lose their stronghold, even though the Alaskan vote has been bought for decades by BigOil, is testament to how badly Americans feel cheated over the past 8 years. I predict BigOil will run a 527 in a month, with commercials reminding Alaskans how much of their treasury is paid for by oil. "Who controls Bartertown?!"

[Jonathan]

Alaska isn't like some of the not-in-play Republican states, where the legacy of the Confederacy dominates among White voters and lower-income Republicans will continue to vote against their own interests. Alaskans are open to making real choices, they know that McCain consistently opposes ANWAR and nearly all the help that their legislators have brought Alaska over the years, and they see the Obama campaign listening to them and making a real effort to win their support. Alaska is definitely in play.

[joel mael]

Don Frederick writes:

"The spotlight on these miscues intensified recently with the indictment of Alaska's numero uno Republican, Sen. Ted Stevens, on federal charges related to a corruption probe"

So Stevens is indicted for "miscues"?
.....on charges "related" to a corruption probe"

Oh, I thought it might be something serious. How softpedally can you get, eh?

Another example of why I rarely read a newspaper anymore. I wonder if some other folks aren't noticing the lack of forthright reporting also.

[Alaskan]

Isn't a "swing state" one whose votes could swing the election? I expected this post to tell me why Alaska's three votes will matter.

[KevoH]

Alaska: Could it truly be a swing state between McCain and Obama? No Obama will not be the next president

[Johnson]

Alaska is full of illiterate, Bible-thumping gun nuts, core Republican voting block. Of course, its going Red.

[Robt]

I have spent a lot of time in Alaska and Obama has no chance to win that state. Most of the people who have moved to Alaska have moved there to remove themselves from much of what Obama represents; a part of society who points their finger at everyone but themselves for their own failings, a part of society responsible for violent crime figures which most people are totally unaware of (young blacks represent less than 3% of the population but commit almost 40% of the murders), never ending generational welfare, almost 70% of newborns are to unwed parents which only increases chances of crime involvement, welfare, drug use, etc., etc., etc... No; Obama will not win Alaska.

[wolf]

It just shows that Alaska - despite their geographic isolation to the continental US - cares about American politics and the state of our Union - just like the rest of us do.

Obama '08

[Johnson]

Oh look, there's one now.

[Michael]

Robt,
Your racism is not even cleverly disguised. Obama does not represent the people you describe. If you think that voting Republican will make the problems go away, you have not been paying attention for the last seven and a half years. Republican voters have been dead wrong for the last two elections and that includes the white-flight Alaskans that you think you speak for. My sincere apologies to the majority of non racist Alaskans that you do not speak for.

[Sameer]

Hmm... you are using the wrong definition of the phrase "swing state." Three electoral votes won't change anything this year.

[that1guy]

I remember when I lived in Anchorage...during a 2004 dispute with my neighbor (while in Air Force uniform) he called me both a "communist" and stated "I bet you're gonna vote for Kerry!"

There are four basic types of people in Alaska:

1. Rednecks.
2. People who were sent there by the military or by oil companies.
3. Criminals who fled there. (There seems to be some sort of an exchange program with Arkansas here; in the local news, Alaskan fugitives were frequently apprehended in Arkansas.)
4. Sharp operators who make a fortune up there, mostly off of group #1, which is the majority. (Little-known fact to most Californians: Cal Worthington has a dealership in Anchorage!)

So, back to the point, is Alaska in play? Nah. They'll go Republican because they don't know any better, nor do they give a damn about the rest of the nation, which is often disparagingly referred to as "South America". They'll also re-elect Stevens even if he's in prison, and Don Young's still a shoo-in. This is the same group of zombies that didn't make a peep after Frank Murkowski appointed his own daughter (read that twice; the state accepts monarchical politics?!) to fill his Senate seat after he was elected governor. They are docile sheep politically. They would vote in Bush as President-for-life if given the opportunity.

[PulSamsara]

Alaskans ARE independent !
Alaskans will vote for the best person for the job -
Not along party lines.

That is why Alaska is Alaska ---
and Alaskans are Alaskans !

[Saxxon Domela]

I just returned on Monday from a swing through Southcentral Alaska (80% of the population lives in this area) and was surprised by the change in the political landscape. I can't count the number of times I heard the phrase "That idiot Bush." With Ted Stevens under inditement and Don Young under investigation, the Republicans have taken hit after hit. Several Anchorage attorneys shared their opinion that the charges against Stevens will be small change compared to what they uncover about Young. Sarah Palin is the one bright light for the Republicans. She is considered to be both competent and well liked. Alaska has traditionally been tied with government employment either directly or indirectly and that led to a right of center population base. In the last few years the employment base has become very much more diversified. Alaskans tend to be fiercely independent and I suspect that polls will drift back and forth between McCain and Obama up until election day. The one element that might swing the state to Obama is the "feet on the ground." The Obama camp has set up shop and are hard at work throughout Alaska. They have even recruited a number of bush pilots who distribute campaign materials in the remote villages.

[steve conn]

How about some truth? Hays worked for IBEW until
THREE YEARS AGO. Her poll was funded by IBEW.
The "veteran" research pollster found ten percent undecided, two percent for "others" and two percent for Nader, a week before Nader submitted 5900 signatures to Division of Election for ballot placement. When Alaskans discover Obama's big dollar support from Exxon employees and his distain for personal privacy, they will rethink their selection.

[P3epe]

Alaska has three electoral votes only. Sure, I'd be curious if Obama wins, but hardly relevant.

[Bill]

For those wondering, its actually quite easy to envision a scenario where the election hinges on Alaska's 3 electoral votes. Obama needs 18 more electoral votes than Kerry. If, for example, he only swings Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, the election is tied at 269 each. If he also swings Alaska, he wins.

[jesse]

Sex, Money and Power

Adultery cast a shadow on a person's ethics. It does not necessarily mean that the offending person is a bad person but it defines the person’s credibility and respect of the political office he/ she holds or aspired for.

John McCain had a well-documented affair on his first wife, former model Carol Shepp with his current wife, formerly Cindy Lou Hensley. Cindy was much young, beautiful and with lots Budweiser money to support his political ambition. The LA Times had reported that McCain obtained an Arizona marriage license on March 6, 1980, while still legally married to Carol. On Friday, February 12, 1999 when questioned about the affair by CNN's Bernard Shaw, the Arizona senator said. "Let me say that I am responsible for the breakup of my first marriage. I will not discuss or talk about that any more than that. If someone wants to criticize me for that, that's fine."

Later on McCain went on to cheat on his second wife Cindy with a much young and beautiful lobbyist Vicki Iseman. Vicki Iseman represented telecommunication companies on the Senate Commerce Committee that John chaired. They contributed tens of thousands of dollars to McCain's campaigns. In return, McCain championed de-regulation for them. He pressured the FCC to uphold marketing agreements that allows television companies to control two stations in the same city and introduced a bill to create tax incentives program for them.

Two times, he tried to advance legislation that would permit a company to control television stations in overlapping markets. If John Edwards' political career is over, why isn't John McCain's? Is McCain credible enough to be trusted to serve as a President? Once a cheater shall always be a cheater. A man that cannot be faithful to his loving, self-sacrificing wives cannot be trusted to be faithful to the American people.

[LMGTS]

@ Bill..."those wondering, its actually quite easy to envision a scenario where the election hinges on Alaska's 3 electoral votes. Obama needs 18 more electoral votes than Kerry. If, for example, he only swings Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, the election is tied at 269 each. If he also swings Alaska, he wins."

Not ture, It would be TIED. and goes to the US Congress. There are only 538 electral votes and 269 + 269 = 538...
If Obama performes average like he's polling, this scenerio is likely... GAME ON!

OBAMA 2008.

[Tim L]

Democrats from Alaska!!
Barack, Big AL loves you!!!

Obama '08

[Dustin]

I was born in alaska and let me tell you since i am 24 every person i speak to most likely is leaning or voting for obama. and secondly, i am not a redneck, thank you. lmao