Where did Barack Obama's mojo go?

Something's going on. Or some things.

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll out Wednesday shows that despite nine solid days of blanket media coverage from overseas with Barack Obama cheered by adoring throngs of Germans and parlez-vousing with the French, making a three-point shot in the Middle East and standing outside No. 10 Downing Street, the freshman Illinois senator is stuck right where he was in the polls before he left.

No bounce. Not even a roll.

He still leads Republican Sen. John McCain 51% to 44%. But it's the same 51-44 as last time.

A CNN poll average shows an even slimmer 48-45 Obama lead, dangerously close for an experienced opponent who relishes being the underdog.

"Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And some 52% think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq -- virtually the same number who felt that way in April."

Other polls show the same stubborn one-digit lead holding for the Democratic nominee-to-be with only 96 days left until the general election. Some crucial state polls even show McCain gaining.

Obama seems to have everything going for him. A fresh face. A smooth, cadenced speaking style suited for TV. A message of change at a time when Americans historically favor change, after one party holds the White House for two terms. And after several convictions of GOP legislators.

Obama's got tons of money. An attractive family. Energized followers. A media that's curious about the new guy and tired of ...

... the dogged old POW one. High gas prices, a poor housing market, a two-front war ongoing and a slightly sagging economy, all of which should help political challengers. Not to mention an unpopular incumbent president.

A lead's a lead, but political strategists are puzzled.

In 1960, John F. Kennedy, the last sitting senator to win the presidency, announced his candidacy on Jan. 2. In 10 months he not only won the Democratic nomination in a blaze of freshness, but he beat 47-year-old Richard M. Nixon, who'd been a prominent vice president for eight years and a House member and senator before that.

Obama's had nearly twice that long to campaign. He's barely ahead and should be pulling away. But isn't. How to explain this?

Well, it is summer -- vacation time when millions of Americans are actually having personal fun, enjoying "The Dark Knight" and the bright beach, just before the back-to-school sales. It's already been a long campaign -- 19 months -- for everyone to pay attention all the time. And the interregnum between winning the nominations and getting them is a long, hot one.

Also, the down side to "fresh face" is "little-known face." Obama's still a very new character on the national stage. And though Europeans have shown they can fall in love with an American politician during one speech in a platz, Americans historically take much longer to grow comfortable with a potential national father figure.

For a large number of Americans who don't make up their minds anymore according to their parents' "D" or "R," they let the anecdotal impressions of candidates accumulate over time to create a larger, whole portrait for their gut ballot decision. The TV debates could be crucial.

Despite awfully quick denials by party officials and the smiling summit of Obama and Hillary Clinton in Unity, N.H., is the Democratic Party perhaps more severely fractured than it looks? Is race more important than many let on?

The Iraq war and Obama's much-touted early opposition to it have seemed to shrink in importance in direct proportion to the dramatic drop in U.S. casualties.

A focus so far has been on McCain's age, but are others maybe wary of Obama's relative youth and public inexperience?

Several strategists of both parties sense that Americans want to vote for Obama, but something is holding them back. Or several somethings, as we suggested up top.

Maybe Obama's flips -- his outspoken opposition to denouncing the Rev. Jeremiah Wright until he did; his promise to take public campaign financing, since broken; his eagerness to debate McCain in town halls, now abandoned; his apparent unwillingness to see progress in the Iraq troop surge, which he opposed and predicted would worsen sectarian violence?

Is there a simmering concern over arrogance by the Ivy League lawyer and mere candidate who so blithely patted the French president on the back for a well-done news conference? Asked the other day if he ever doubted himself, Obama replied smartly, "Never!" And grinned broadly. Sounded more like a 20-year-old than someone about to turn 47 next week. 

Americans bought George W. Bush's message of changing Washington in 2000. But he was a governor coming from Austin, Texas. Americans like governors as chief executives; four of the last five presidents were governors first.

Voters have proved more suspicious of legislators. This year they have no more choice; it'll be only the third time in American history a sitting (or standing) senator has been elected to the White House.

Obama's talking change too. But he's a legislator who's been in Washington three years now, two of them as a member of a Democratic-controlled Congress that was elected in 2006 with great promise but currently holds historically low favorability ratings.

What's Obama done for D.C. change since arriving? What's Obama done for reform back home within the historically monolithic and corrupt Chicago Democratic machine, where some up-and-comers are sent off to Congress for seasoning before advancing to the big time of City Council?

The longer the Obama campaign goes without pulling comfortably ahead of the former fighter pilot who was trained to stay on his opponent's tail, the more worrisome it'll become for chief strategist David Axelrod (see photo) and others behind the closed doors in their Windy City headquarters.

A good reason maybe to consider a jump-start: perhaps advance the announcement of his running mate, get another fresh (or maybe not-so-fresh) face out there to draw news coverage while Obama takes a week of well-deserved vacation like so many other Americans, who could care less about the static polls these days.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo credit: Associated Press (above); Chicago Tribune (below).

Comments

[frank]

2 simple reasons:

1) he is a socialist, and the most far left presidential candidate of my lifetime

2) he is black with a Muslim name

pure and simple. The first reason is enough to consider thisman a mortal threat to the country I love, the 2nd, while irrelevant to me, is enough to cause many otherwise-Democratic swing voters in swing states to make a gut reaction vote for the safety of John McCain.

[Tom J]

How about the obvious: a lot of working people are on vacation this time of year, therefore not available to pollsters. Ya think?!

[Lynn E]

Obama is a total fake and I think most people know it. When the press mentions anything negative about him, they are lambasted as is McCain. Even the Europeans would back away if they really had to vote for him. How did this guy get so far? If he really had cared about this country, he would have worked very hard at buliding a record and reputation for doing good work and taking the time to do things. Instead he stands on little record, a lot of talk and a lot of arrogance. He is totally intolerant of anyone not enthralled with him is marginalized and disgarded. Now the wonderful stadium nomination is going to be limited to those who can show proof they worked on his presidential campaign, guaranteeing a number syncophants cheering him on and who have gone through the "training" to be fully indoctrinated with Obama's rhetoric. All Democrats are not invited to the table to unify the party but large numbers are being left out.

[Southoc]

OMG I'm going to be sick

[cbk16]

If you look at the two daily tracking polls of likely voters, the race is tied, Gallup has McCain up by 4, Rassumssen has Obama by 2. If you look at the two issues that stand out, Obama doesn't look so good. Obama was against the surge, (the surge won the Iraq war) and Obama is against further drilling, drilling is the best solution that will help the economy solve its biggest problem, $4 gas. It is amazing in this year that should be a Democrat slam dunk, it is trending towards the Republican. Bush may have terrible ratings, but Bush may be able to beat Obama this year. The media gave Obama all the headlines during his trip, all this did was tell the world Bush/McCain won the Iraq war.

[joey64]

andrewy, the sooner people get over the color thang, the better off they will be with thier personal growth, the guy thats runing things now ,is a major screw up, but i dont here anything about race with him. as far as mcain goes, he part of the old gaurd. the people that have us in this mess in the first place, plus he is the governer of the state that took FOREVER, to make MLK DAY LEGIT. part of the old crap that will take this country the next 30 years to recover from, andrew please get with the new, expose the old crap, get off the fluff and spin!

[s. Chaidez]

Given the media's love affair with Obama (The Times being at the forefront of it all) .Obama should be ahead in the polls handily. Just look at today's headlines. It talks about McCain going negative while the majority of other media outlets write that McCain is simply trying to mold Obama's image. Leave it to the mega libera Times.

[nimh]

Andrew sets up a clear contrast between JFK, the American hero Obama has been compared to, and Obama itself.

Obama doesn't match up, is the implication. After all: "In 1960, John F. Kennedy ... not only won the Democratic nomination in a blaze of freshness, he beat 47-year-old Richard M. Nixon".

Obama, on the other hand, is "barely ahead" in the polls, when he "should be pulling away"! Time for Axelrod to panic?

Fact of the matter is, of course, that Kennedy only won the 1960 elections by the tiniest of margins. By a mere whisker. Andrew knows this of course. Kennedy won 49.72% of the vote; Nixon 49.55%.

In that light, breathless chatter about how Obama is failing to "pull away" seems a little overexcited. Or at the least lacking in historical awareness. Hell, in comparison with how Kennedy fared in the elections, Obama is doing fine.

Wrong historical analogy, obviously. But a comparison with LBJ wouldnt be as sexy, I suppose. And it's summertime, cucumber season.

If you are interested in a more comprehensive look at the polls, rather than a cherry-picked selection to illustrate a column, check out pollster.com, or FiveThirtyEight.com. Whether there's good news or bad news, it's a lot more informative!

[anonymouse]

What mojo?

Just another hack lawyer that got into office via Chicago Machine politics and a rather shameless gift from the parent of this newspaper (see Jeri Ryan for details).

His meaningful achievements: Zilch.

Personally I prefer a "Citizen of the United States" run our country.

[BG]

Could it be that Obama is black? A tough pill to swallow by most voters who look at this guys resume and see nothing but a lot of talk. Colin Powell would have been a shoo in but he lied to the UN. As for McCain how anyone could vote for Mr Grouch is beyond me. The man is too old and tired but is gamely campaigning for his last hurrah. Sorry to say our country which is desperately searching for a real leader instead of these two faux candidates will have to endure another 4 years of our country headed in the wrong direction.

[sdimig]

"Remember, Obama won the hearts and votes of only half the Democrats.Hillary won about 49% and they are still ticked."

I guess I am one of those 49%. I just can't buy into Obama. The hypocrisy kills me.

[The Other Ed]

It's deja vu, all over again! And it's driving me crazy!

This new McCain strategy is not just a replay of the Bush/Rove attacks on Kerry for being elitist, unmanly, French and arrogant, it's also a replay of the arrogant, robotic, condescending, "he says he invented the internet" attacks on Gore. The $400 Edwards haircut/Breck Girl meme would have played out the same way if he had won. They did vary the attacks against Hillary Clinton by portraying her as a "bit*h" and castrating but it was all in the same playbook of making the election about phony cartoon characters that they created.

The GOP apparatchiks learned the lesson that P.T. Barnum was right, there's a sucker born every minute and they've made a living selling the same snake oil over and over.

The Bush/Rove/McCain GOP team is just a one-trick pony and if you liked 2000 and 2004, you'll love 2008!

[sdimig]

"Oh, and let's just slap a nice jumbo picture of Tony Rezko in there without connection or explanation. "

That photo is not Rezko, it is Obama's creepy chief strategist David Axlerod. I can't sand that guy.

[nordstrom]

I'm getting really sick of all these stupid, time-wasting, "why can't he close the deal?" stories.
"Something is holding [voters] back," ha ha.
HELLO — HE'S A BLACK MAN.
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT.
IN AMERICA.
Got it now?
Stop wasting our time. Talk about the real issues. We're grownups. It won't go over our heads, we promise.

[Newton Minnow]

You cannot be serious.

Prepare yourself for this: Obama will not get every vote. The fact that Bush still gets approval ratings around 30% shows there are still a lot of dead enders out there unwilling to vote for any Democrat, let alone this one.

If he beats McCain 51-44 it will be a landslide margin, about the same as Clinton's over Dole in '96, which translated into a 379-159 electoral margin. The difference would be that unlike Obama, Clinton never broke 50%.

[Bill]

Not sure what you are trying to "kick up" with this BLOG? The US public is known for its arms-length distance approach to elections and doesn't get interested in the race until its on perched on the doorstep... We'll see who has the mojo come late September when the kids are back in school and 99% of the public is plunked down like a sack of pototoes in front of the TV watching football...

Then we'll see if McCain can hang or Obama blows it...

[NO-bama]

Hilarious that nowhere in your head-scratching post do you mention the power of women, and that women are p.o'd about this election, and they rightfully do not like Obama.

The fact is, time is an enemy to lack of substance and lies. Time is not on Obama's side.

[Imaguest]

Obama is the Human Macarena, here today, gone manana.

Madeleine Albright dancing the Macarena at the United Nations = Chris Matthews describing how Obama gives him a thrill going up his leg.

[muD]

Remember that Kennedy only won because Joseph Kennedy bought WV and mayor Daley delivered the Chicago cemetery vote.

The real reason he isn't really pulling away from McCain is that Obama has gone into run out the clock mode. While fans hate it, coaches know running out the clock is the best bet. The difference between a coach with a big lead and Obama, is that coaches always wait until after half-time to shut down the offense and play it safe. After avoiding all of the mistakes made by Dean in '04 during the primaries, he seems to be repeating them now. If McCain wins, it'll be because Obama let him back in the game by playing at being President rather than campaigning for it.

[Sree]

So, what should happen for you to certify Omaba as mojo man. I think even if he polls 90-10, you lazy journalists will be whining that Obama is still yielding 10 points to McCain. One reason Bush/Rove were so successful despite their limited intelligence is that they perfectly understood how brain dead the media people are and treated them as such. McCain is beginning to grasp that concept it appears. Obama is consistently leading McCain in almost every poll and that is a bad news for him, lovely!!!!

[Concerned Citzen]

Stop trying to blame Obama's campaign woes on race. That's a cop-out and falsehood.

Voters are waking up to the fact that Obama is all photo op and teleprompters but no substance.

He is inexperienced and ill-informed. Obama won't debate McCain because without scripted answers, Obama is lost.

Voters who refuse to vote for Obama are realists not racists.

[Jim]

I don't know why this should be so puzzling. If Obama were not so liberal he would be walking away with this right now. The average person is not concerned about his lack of experience. They are concerned that he is hiding how radical he is. Everything he does and says looks like he is trying to evade exposure of his beliefs. Fortunately it is likely that, if elected, he will quickly swing to the center somewhere between Bush and Bill Clinton and things won't be that much different than they have been for twenty years. He's no dummy.

[Ray]

You guys have to be kidding. The trip over seas will pay off in huge dividends during the debates and at other times leading up to November. Obama has done no wrong and this trip was almost flawless (visiting the troops). He has proven that foreign leaders would be more than happy to work with him on solving global issues. McCain has proven that he will continue the George Bush practices of going it alone when everyone in the world disagrees with him. What the hell is going on with America when diplomacy is discouraged?

Visit my site: http://sethandray.com

[Seriously?]

Oh no! Obama must be terrified! He's WINNING BY 7 POINTS!!! What's he going to do? How's he going to pull this thing off?!? He has so much ground to make up! He'll never win if things stay the way they are!!!

[PAC]

I'll tell you where his Mojo went! Obama's Mojo was sapped the moment he became a play-toy of the same "experts" that brought us President Mondale, President Gore; President Dukakis and President Kerry.
His stupid comments at the anti-American AIPAC lobby, his position on FISA and his unwillingness to fight McCain in the gutter will make him a candidate for the monument of failed Democrats.