Where did Barack Obama's mojo go?

Something's going on. Or some things.

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll out Wednesday shows that despite nine solid days of blanket media coverage from overseas with Barack Obama cheered by adoring throngs of Germans and parlez-vousing with the French, making a three-point shot in the Middle East and standing outside No. 10 Downing Street, the freshman Illinois senator is stuck right where he was in the polls before he left.

No bounce. Not even a roll.

He still leads Republican Sen. John McCain 51% to 44%. But it's the same 51-44 as last time.

A CNN poll average shows an even slimmer 48-45 Obama lead, dangerously close for an experienced opponent who relishes being the underdog.

"Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And some 52% think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq -- virtually the same number who felt that way in April."

Other polls show the same stubborn one-digit lead holding for the Democratic nominee-to-be with only 96 days left until the general election. Some crucial state polls even show McCain gaining.

Obama seems to have everything going for him. A fresh face. A smooth, cadenced speaking style suited for TV. A message of change at a time when Americans historically favor change, after one party holds the White House for two terms. And after several convictions of GOP legislators.

Obama's got tons of money. An attractive family. Energized followers. A media that's curious about the new guy and tired of ...

... the dogged old POW one. High gas prices, a poor housing market, a two-front war ongoing and a slightly sagging economy, all of which should help political challengers. Not to mention an unpopular incumbent president.

A lead's a lead, but political strategists are puzzled.

In 1960, John F. Kennedy, the last sitting senator to win the presidency, announced his candidacy on Jan. 2. In 10 months he not only won the Democratic nomination in a blaze of freshness, but he beat 47-year-old Richard M. Nixon, who'd been a prominent vice president for eight years and a House member and senator before that.

Obama's had nearly twice that long to campaign. He's barely ahead and should be pulling away. But isn't. How to explain this?

Well, it is summer -- vacation time when millions of Americans are actually having personal fun, enjoying "The Dark Knight" and the bright beach, just before the back-to-school sales. It's already been a long campaign -- 19 months -- for everyone to pay attention all the time. And the interregnum between winning the nominations and getting them is a long, hot one.

Also, the down side to "fresh face" is "little-known face." Obama's still a very new character on the national stage. And though Europeans have shown they can fall in love with an American politician during one speech in a platz, Americans historically take much longer to grow comfortable with a potential national father figure.

For a large number of Americans who don't make up their minds anymore according to their parents' "D" or "R," they let the anecdotal impressions of candidates accumulate over time to create a larger, whole portrait for their gut ballot decision. The TV debates could be crucial.

Despite awfully quick denials by party officials and the smiling summit of Obama and Hillary Clinton in Unity, N.H., is the Democratic Party perhaps more severely fractured than it looks? Is race more important than many let on?

The Iraq war and Obama's much-touted early opposition to it have seemed to shrink in importance in direct proportion to the dramatic drop in U.S. casualties.

A focus so far has been on McCain's age, but are others maybe wary of Obama's relative youth and public inexperience?

Several strategists of both parties sense that Americans want to vote for Obama, but something is holding them back. Or several somethings, as we suggested up top.

Maybe Obama's flips -- his outspoken opposition to denouncing the Rev. Jeremiah Wright until he did; his promise to take public campaign financing, since broken; his eagerness to debate McCain in town halls, now abandoned; his apparent unwillingness to see progress in the Iraq troop surge, which he opposed and predicted would worsen sectarian violence?

Is there a simmering concern over arrogance by the Ivy League lawyer and mere candidate who so blithely patted the French president on the back for a well-done news conference? Asked the other day if he ever doubted himself, Obama replied smartly, "Never!" And grinned broadly. Sounded more like a 20-year-old than someone about to turn 47 next week. 

Americans bought George W. Bush's message of changing Washington in 2000. But he was a governor coming from Austin, Texas. Americans like governors as chief executives; four of the last five presidents were governors first.

Voters have proved more suspicious of legislators. This year they have no more choice; it'll be only the third time in American history a sitting (or standing) senator has been elected to the White House.

Obama's talking change too. But he's a legislator who's been in Washington three years now, two of them as a member of a Democratic-controlled Congress that was elected in 2006 with great promise but currently holds historically low favorability ratings.

What's Obama done for D.C. change since arriving? What's Obama done for reform back home within the historically monolithic and corrupt Chicago Democratic machine, where some up-and-comers are sent off to Congress for seasoning before advancing to the big time of City Council?

The longer the Obama campaign goes without pulling comfortably ahead of the former fighter pilot who was trained to stay on his opponent's tail, the more worrisome it'll become for chief strategist David Axelrod (see photo) and others behind the closed doors in their Windy City headquarters.

A good reason maybe to consider a jump-start: perhaps advance the announcement of his running mate, get another fresh (or maybe not-so-fresh) face out there to draw news coverage while Obama takes a week of well-deserved vacation like so many other Americans, who could care less about the static polls these days.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo credit: Associated Press (above); Chicago Tribune (below).

Comments

[Tim]

"too true", you are an idiot. I guess you'll have to take McCain's word for it that he is not a muslim... or does McCain not LOOK like a Muslim?

When has McCain admitted anything?

This article is nonsense, but you are an idiot.

[dean]

What about th poll from USA/Gallop on July 27th?

That shows McCain with a 4 point lead over Obama

Why not mention that in the article? Can you say BIAS

[Eddy]

In McCains townhall yesterday in Aurora, McCain stopped short of telling a story of a man that said he had two truck and the gas tax.... (what happened?) McCain changed the subject and didn't finish. He either lost track of his memory or had a Geritol moment. Can you see this happening at a world summit. Is McCain suffering from Dementia?

[Jennifer]

I can understand why there is hesitation about Barak Obama. I realize that Caroline Kennedy thinks that he is a lot like her father. However, I do remember how we were all in love with JFK. He was fresh and new and very idealistic which is why we had the "Bay of Pigs" because Kruschev took one look at him and saw his inexperience. It remains to be seen if he would have been a great president if he had lived. George Bush soothed Americans when asked any questions of "substance". He would always reply: "We'll take care of it." Idealism is great but I think we need a little or a lot of substance here!

[Kadius]

Anyone who votes because of color is racist. Oh why would I start out like that?

Well the "mojo" is going away because many who have supported the freshman Senator are indeed black Americans. The funds are still coming in but the voice is weak, the votes to get him where he is will be drastically reduced come November.

The color of his skin is the issue, had he been white (err) with the same abilities, he still, would have beat Clinton. Sadly enough his skin color will play a role in that the people who share his skin color will ultimately let him down by the no votes in November.

Hopelessly waiting on a real contender for the people.

Maybe the "Independent Party" will send soemone to help all people and all people will vote for that person.

[A.Levine]

I HAVE BEEN HERE FROM THE START AND FROM THE START THE CHOICE WAS MADE............THEN CAME THE PRIEST(WRIGHT),THE WIFE(HATE) THE FRIEND (AIRS)THE SEAL(FAKE) THE TRIP(ROCK CONCERT),THE WHOLE STAGING OF THIS JUST MAKES ME SICK, AND FOR THE ONES WHO STILL DON'T GET IT THE GUILT (HE'S BLACK) AND IT'S ABOUT RACE YOU RACTIST. I SAY GIVE IT UP AND PICK THE GUY WHO WE KNOW IS THE RIGHT CHOICE FOR AMERICA AND THAT IS ONLY ONE..................................MCCAIN WHY ???? READ THE TOP PART AND SEE THAT AMERICA CANNOT AFFORD TO BE A KINGDOM ,WITH A KING RULING AT THIS TIME.

[Richard]

If Obama is Spears and Hilton than McCain is the cartoon character Jim Backus's Mr. Magoo. There is deeper water running here. The stark contrast between McCain and his inability to match the grace, style and new vitality of Obama must be deeply worrisome to the McCain campaign. His handlers are rtrying to manage every motion of McCain's body in front of the camera as to not let people see his hands because they make him look like a pre-historic reptile. These charges of Obama being "like" Spears and Hilton are ridiculous and desperate.

[isaiah]

In answere to your head line question, Barack's mojo went exactly where the propagandist wanted it to go;away! It seems like we learned a lot from NAZI GERMANY,in particular,their propaganda machine.But not this time.Your premise that OBAMA shoul be pulling away is ludicrous.For GOD'S SAKE,this is a freshman SENATOR running against a political icon.If anything your question should be directed toward JOHN McCAIN.How can a unknown freshman SENATOR beat the CLINTON machine,and now is making McCAIN look his age.What is so objectionable about JOHN McCAIN and the NEO-CONS? I challenge all AMERICANS to answere the question put forward by RONALD REAGAN. "ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO"I know I'm not,I know the country is not ,I know the ecomomy is not.Spin the facts as you will,but the truth is still the truth.I beleive the REBUBLICANS were right in the year 2000 when they said GEORGE BUSH was better than JOHN McCAIN when they chose BUSH over McCAIN during that year's republican primary.That is not saying a lot for JOHN McCAIN;Is It ???

[dave]

a nation has come to a crossroads, to decide which way to take. that of liberty and conscious self-determination and rewarding expansion of their horizon by reasonable and loving interaction, or that of dull fearful servitude, unconsciousness and abominable denial of self.
people are uneasy, feeling or knowing that something's fundamentally wrong with the choices presented. and with the fact that the viable one is being forcibly withheld.
they miss wisdom and truthfulness in both candidates proposed, regardless of their age. and many might be vaguely aware that insincerity, lies and treachery do not recommend anyone for a 'father figure'. a living nation that would make conscious choices in their own interest would be represented by a 'father figure' that is not an elusive ghost of a father seeking to abduct the nation into a spooky underworld of unconscious bondage and brutish rule by perversion of virtue, and inversion of truth.
yet there are many people who can tell right from wrong, and they will not be hoodwinked or bamboozled.
while they hear the bell toll for america, they will keep sounding the voice of freedom.

[Peter Principle]

Actually, the real question is where the LA Times's journalistic integrity went. Oh wait, you guys never had any to begin with.

[Jeff]

Dear Too True,
You want Obama to admit something, anything? What? So then you'll have something to really dislike him for that you can point ?
And some racist slam for good measure about maybe really being a Muslim but not admitting it?
If you really want lack of humility then look no further than George Bush.
You racist comment was just idiotic.

[Pat Bruno]

Could it possibly be that most Americans just don't agree with his policies? No drilling? Pull out of Iraq ASAP? Switching positions on FISA? Maybe we just don't like him or his policies and are afraid to trust him with our country.

[JohnQ]

If one is to speak of Obama's flip-flops, why no mention of the most indisptuably shocking one: the vote to legalize the Bush spying regime, and dismiss lawsuits against the telcos that were already underway?

I live in Arizona and know John McCain all too well for that two-faced SOB to get my vote. But I'm bothered that Frederick, for unknown reasons, ignored the elephant in the room.

[VoiceOfReason]

Did McCain's "Straight Lies Express" send you these talking points or are you still getting them from the White House?

[omar]

Too true, Jerry Diamond and the like:
So after 8 years of the worst disaster in american politics,our country's prestige in the toilet, more people living under the poverty line, more people without insurance, more people losing their homes,hurricane katrina, the highest gas prices ever, the highest deficit ever, the highest national debt ever, the biggest blunder in american history (Iraq), the politicizing of the DOJ under Gonzalez, the attempt to sell our Ports to Dubai, all led by the republicans and their idiot-in-chief, you still have reservations about Obama? I mean, what else does Bush and the republicans have to do for all you rednecks to wake up? Oh yeah, I forgot, god told the evangelicals that Bush was the right man for the presidency...just like it told Bush to invade Iraq...World, meet America the racist, the stupid and the irrelevant...

[Jeff]

So not taking the taxpayer's money is a bad "flip"? Are you joking?
The surge in Iraq is working? For how long? 4000 plus dead. DEAD! Obama had the foresight to vote against it. If Bush had not started this horrible trillion dollar war then we would not have to even discuss if the "surge" was working.
By the way, Bush never questions himself either. Old news?
Also, If you are insinuating that Obama is acting like a 20 year old then I'll take Obama's 20, as opposed to Bush's 12 and McCain's 90.

[skeptic]

Where did Obama's mojo go? Remember the scene in The Wizard of Oz where Toto pulls back the curtain to reveal the snake oil salesman. That's where Obama's mojo went.

[Bruce Barney]

Well, it's interesting how all these disingenuous writers seek to erase the fact that Obama is still a black man in America seeking the presidency. When was the last time a black man ever came close to winning the nomination of a major party, let alone think of winning the White House? You write as if you've just come from Mars and never heard of racism. And of course you also conveniently forget to mention that Kennedy's bid wasn't smooth. He didn't win in a landslide, despite being white. He won with only a razor-thin margin in a controversial election that many still believe was decided in Chicago. And here you sound like he zipped right through to the White House. You forget to mention that McCain is no freshman senator or unknown. You level the ground so that you can erase the complete miracle of Obama's candidacy and performance against a powerful, long term national figure who's also a white man. That kind of pseudo-analysis makes little sense. One begins to wonder why you all seem so keen on Obama's failure. Same racism, perhaps?

[Alex01]

Hmm, maybe it's something the author didn't mention. Maybe it's the fact that Obama is friends with an unrepentant terrorist (Bill Ayers), and launched his state senate campaign from Bill's house. Maybe it's because Barack went to an anti-American church for 20 years. Maybe it's because he thinks slumlords are great people to do house-buying and other business with. Maybe it's his terrible voting and legislative records. None of this was mentioned in the article. Way to not look at the actual reasons for this unqualified, unelectable conman not getting the bump he thinks he deserves. No matter what the MSM does, Obama won't be elected. His bad judgment, associations, and character will see to that.

[plankbob]

You couldn't make this stuff up but the GOP and its witless media accomplices have.
McCain criticizes Obama's lack of foreign policy moxie and says he better go to the war zones. Obama does and by all but his most vociferous critics' measures, carries it off flawlessly and impresses all but the vociferous critics, who spout off to the traditional media. The scribes are only too willing to make mountains out of molehills because they like a close race, even if it isn't, and they like to generate false controversy instead of fact-based reporting.
I guess the question remains: Why is Obama not ahead by double digits over a pathetic candidate in terms of campaign style, and one who has flip-flopped all over the place since he started running? Why isn't the first black nominee (surely that's an advantage in a nation with only 10 or 12 percent blacks, right?), who has only gotten glowing coverage from the media from day one, ahead by more? Did you ever think that 7 points is a good margin?

.

[Toon Moene]

Dang, you managed to find the two most *tired* photographs of Obama's campaign. Congratulations.

I never understood how he could travel to the Middle East, then back to Europe, in just a few days and still be standing up and speaking.

[ I visit Las Vegas twice a year for a Standardization meeting - nine hours difference, and Ottawa once a year for a GNU meeting, six hours difference ]

[Bruce Barney]

Too True: "When will Obama finally admit something - anything. Where is the humility of this man. The only other time I have seen a person so stuborn was when I worked with a muslim. Obama says he is not one, and I will have to take his word for it. Seems I have to take his word for a lot of things. Voting for someone I need to take their word is not something I will do."

A question for Too True: I understand you're a muslim yourself. At least that's what I heard. Can you prove to me that you're not or should I simply take your word for it?

Too many idiots like you make America look stupid in the eyes of the world. You worked with a fanthom muslim--which of course is a lie, but if you're a Christian, it;s perfectly ok to lie--and this fanthom was "stubborn", so, all muslims are stubborn. See how stupid that reads? Shame on you and the likes of you. Over the past 7 years this country has spent more than $400 billion on muslims and continues to spend more than $12 billion a month on muslims in some far away country. And here's someone who says: let's stop that and spend that money helping struggling American families, but you won't vote for him because--lie--you worked with a muslim who was stubborn. Your education was obviously wasted.

[tigerlilly]

I am sure that those who approve these post are Obamatons. Obama would further ruin the US. He's a Marxist, and Marxism always leads to mass murder, oppression and poverty for the majority. I hate Obama and just about every Democrat and Liberal in the world! They are liars and hypocrites!

[John James Preston]

"Sounded more like a 20-year-old than someone about to turn 47 next week. "

47 was a *fine* age when Richard Nixon ran for President in 1960, now the rightwing tries to imply that it is too young, too inexperienced. Kennedy was 43 when he was elected; Teddy Roosevelt was 42 when he became President after McKinley was killed. Vigorous, intelligent, next-generation leadership has served our Country well over the centuries.

How about singing 'bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran' - how old does *that* sound ? 16 ? 17 ? And this from someone who is trying to be the oldest elected President *ever* ???

"That's not change we ... can believe in ... my ... friends... zzzzzzzzzz".

[Alex01]

And let me add: Barack as a "father figure"? Please! He's a goofball. An immature, egocentric child. I know that's redundant, but people have to realize why he chose powerful figures like "Reverend" Wright to idolize for two decades, not to mention giving his church tens of thousands of dollars. Barack has no center, due to a rootless young childhood, and parents that didn't care about him. It was too late by the time his grandparents got him, and they were very busy with their jobs. He was left to fend for himself. So he tries to get his roots from others, whether those others are powerful "religious" figures or rich corporate sponsors. He basically needs some serious therapy, since he doesn't seem to be able to grow up on his own. And I'm sure the lovely Michelle is no help in that department.

We can't re-raise Barack. We need an adult for president. There are two adults to choose from, and I hope the DNC comes to its senses and runs a fair convention. That way we'll have a shot of getting a grown-up for POTUS.