New poll finds sudden drop by Obama into statistical tie with McCain

Remember that Newsweek magazine poll a few weeks back that portrayed a big advantage for Democrat Barack Obama in his contest with Republican John McCain for the White House?

Well, forget it.

The newest Newsweek poll shows pretty much what the daily tracking poll of the Gallup organization has been recording for some time now: a virtual tie between the two major-party candidates for president among voters surveyed nationally.

Newsweek says the virtual tie portrayed in its latest poll, as compared with the 15-point lead that Obama enjoyed in a poll reported June 20, is "hard to explain."

"A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading," Newsweek now reports. "In the latest Newsweek Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44% to 41%.

"The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's Newsweek Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51% to 36%.

"Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate," Newsweek adds. "Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience -- an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June.

"More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics."

There's more to this surprising statistical midsummer turn of events, and our colleague Mark Silva has the full details in the Swamp.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[dave]

so when tomorrow we will learn that both preemptively-declared presumptuously-presumptive nominees are way down in the polls - it will not be such a big surprise; RON PAUL is ready to step in, and while he's already speaking up, you just have to turn up the sound, and stop ignoring him, his message and his movement...

[VJ Machiavelli]

Yes, many people are now taking a second look at Obama and his "SEAL" they realize that he is not ready for "Prime Time". or maybe "Newsweek" needs a new pollster.

The poll was out of line with many other polls.

If I was Hillary Soprano I would be warming up in the bull pen. Come Denver McCain will have a solid lead.

It Ron Paul was running and not Bob Barr many of Obamas "younger supporters" would be switching to Ron Paul"

VJ Machiavelli

ps Ron Paul has a message that rings true to "younger hip voters"

[Alessandro Machi]

Not that big of a deal really. What has McCain done to earn more votes in the past 2 weeks? Didn't he leave the country? If both candidates get bumps in the polls every time they leave the country....

I still want Hillary as the nominee, however.

http://www.HILLARY-WINS.com
http://www.FAIR-REFLECTION.com
http://www.POSTCARDBRIGADE.com

[dave]

i see where you're going...but when RON PAUL gets the nomination, you might reconsider; neither mccain nor obama have either a legal, moral nor any other qualification to run for office.

[Ulysses S. Grant]

Are you RON PAUL people really serious? Do you really think RON PAUL is going to get the GOP nomination? He's got a lot of really good things to say (except for not understanding that we have to actually fight terrorism, not wait for another 9/11 to hit us here), but even the great RON PAUL has dropped out of the race. Even if John McAmnesty drops another 10 points, he will still be the Republican nominee. I mean, hasn't the fact that RON PAUL never got above 5 percent or so nationally, even on his most popular day, struck you as some sort of sign that he's not going to win?

[BJ]

Why are people talking about Ron Paul? He's not even mentioned in the article.

Obama's supporters are obviously showing "buyer's remorse". Having propelled him as the presumptive nominee, they are now wondering who this man really is, and what he truly stands for.

Hillary! Blow this guy out at the Convention!!! We are still here, and so are your superdelegates!

[dave]

no - why?
if you care, you can easily find out on your own why RON PAUL is the only candidate left with serious chances to become president.

[Keith]

RON PAUL - LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

Please Dave, you're killing me. Even Ron Paul says it's done and over. I know it just doesn't even seem real to you, but it is. Get your copy of the manifesto, curl up in little ball and cry it out. It'll be okay.

[Alessandro Machi]

It's the middle of summer, the older folks are staying in out of the heat, the younger voters are out having fun, hence those insipid polling questions that go on for 10 minutes as they repeat the same question five different ways, suddenly find more older voters and less younger voters available for the prolonged torture.

http://www.HILLARY-WINS.com
http://www.POSTCARD-BRIGADE.com

[Kerry]

Re: Governor Schwarzenegger On "This Week with George Stephanopoulos"

Yes, flip-flopping can be acceptable if it is an issue but what about character Mr. Schwarzenegger? What kind of a President will Obama be? Is he going to say to Iran’s President “I’M JUST MESSING WITH YOU, MAN” as he said at a recent fundraiser with family’s present----“We can’t afford to be divided by race. We can’t afford to be divided by region or by class and we can’t afford to be divided by gender, which by the way, that means, Bernie, you’ve got to clean up your act next time,” Obama said. “This is a family affair. By the way, I’m just messing with you, man.” Is he going to call woman that are Heads of State “sweetie”. Knowing all too well that woman voters are upset with the way that Clinton was treated, he comes out with the statement “get over it”. Obama said he “REGRETTED” saying that the lives of American soldiers who died fighting in Iraq had been “wasted”. Obama said the “REGRETTED” his choice of words that "bitter" folks in Middle America who have lost economic hope "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them." Obama said he “REGRETTED” buying property and having help of the purchase of the lot next door by his longtime (17 year) supporter and big-time fund-raiser Tony Rezko (now in jail for corruption), who helped him win his Senate Seat. Just a few days ago Obama REGRETTED allowing his young daughters to participate in a family TV interview with "Access Hollywood."

Will the next Obama REGRET be that we embarrassed him because we do not speak enough languages? Obama voted against English being the official language of America. Obama said “they want to pass a law”, “We want English-only." The bill before the Senate was to make English the official language of America for which Mr. Obama voted NO. We are proud Americans, proud of our working people, our accomplishments, and proud of our freedoms. Obama wants us to change, we can not live the way we have been living “the rest of the world does not like it”.

I know I’ve missed a lot of regrets, and you can probably fill them in (or just watch the News because tomorrow will provide another one). When it comes to the Oval Office, the world and the American people what will be Obama’s next regret? Truthfully, Mr. Schwarzenegger you really think this man and his character is Presidential?

Proud to be an American Citizen

[keith]

so when tomorrow we will learn that both preemptively-declared presumptuously-presumptive nominees are way down in the polls - it will not be such a big surprise; RON PAUL is ready to step in, and while he's already speaking up, you just have to turn up the sound, and stop ignoring him, his message and his movement...

Posted by: dave | July 12, 2008 at 08:43 AM

Predictably preposterous mo-Ron post

[Adleta]

People should be smart enough to know the Newsweek poll is inaccurate.I predicted it was inaccurate when they had Obama ahead 15%.Now, Newsweek expects Americans to believe Obama has dropped 12% in polls.I am not buying it.I really believe Newsweek is just trying to grab the headlines,and sell magazines.We will see in November which poll is the most accurate.

[Ann]

Going to catch you off guard? Proposed changes in taxes after 2008 General election:

CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN:
0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples) McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA:
28% on any profits from ALL home sales. How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain in Taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes.

DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN: 15% maximum tax (no change).
OBAMA: maximum 39.6%

If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned in taxes if Obama become president.

INCOME TAX
MCCAIN: (no changes)
Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married couple making 60K- tax $9,000
Married couple making 75K - tax $18,750
Married couple making 125K - tax $31,250

OBAMA:
(reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married couple making 60K - tax $16,800
Married couple making 75K - tax $21,000
Married couple making 125K - tax $38,750

INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN: 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax).

OBAMA: Restore Estate and Inheritance taxes. Many families have lost the businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones may now only lose them to these taxes.

NEW TAXES BEING PROPOSED BY OBAMA
* New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet.
* New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already)
* New taxes on natural resource consumption (heating oil & gas, water, electricity).
* New taxes on retirement accounts