John McCain trend detected in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida polls

The Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which is focusing on several of the states that presumably will tell the tale of this year's presidential race, is out with results from three of those locales that can be spun positively by either campaign -- though John McCain's camp can make a better case than Barack Obama's.

Surveys of voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida show Obama ahead in each -- though by margins so negligible in the latter two that the contests there, as gauged by the Quinnipiac polls, are essentially tossups.

And in all three states, the trend -- compared to polls by the group a month ago -- favored McCain.

Here are the new results, compared to the previous ones:

Florida: Obama 46%, McCain 44% (in June, Obama 47%, McCain 43%).

Ohio: Obama 46%, McCain 44% (in June, Obama 48%, McCain 42%).

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (in June, Obama 52%, McCain 40%).

The movement toward McCain is in line with recent polling by Quinnipiac in four other key states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin (as The Ticket reported last week).

The solace for Obama in today's polls (elaborated on by assistant survey director in this Quinnipiac release) is that his lead in Pennsylvania -- a must-win for him -- remains outside the margin of error.

Also, if Obama can snatch either Ohio or Florida from the Republican column -- and that's obviously doable, based on the news polls -- it's hard to see how McCain can amass the 270 electoral votes needed for the White House.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[Richard Bionda]

I believe that after McCain and Obama debate the issues, Obama's percentage will rise by a huge amount.

[James Sanders]

If Obama makes the election about race he is going to lose. He is just going to open up the racial divisions that still exist in this country. Remember how the whites and blacks felt about OJ? That wasn't very long ago.

When push comes to shove, if this because a race campaign, people are going to vote along race lines not party lines.

So not to Obama and supporters, stop playing the race card. Its not a winning card.

[joseph marcucilli]

The electoral map is also shifting.Why not report traditional red states moving to Obama.Hell he may even win Alaska now.Obama has a better ground game, more offices in key states and workers on the ground.Don't underestimate that resource.We are micro tergeting unlikely and disaffedted voters that polls can't reach as well as the youth vote where cell phones ,their typical form of communication can't be polled Obama camp is not sweating this poll result at all because when it is time to get the vote out McCain will be slaughtered.

[Don Allen]

I don't know why the LA Times continues to use the Q poll only to make a case, when there are several other polls showing that not only has Obama taking control of theses states when McCain at one time held the lead, but is actually expanding his lead. It makes me wonder what the LA Times is up to. Example: McCain consistantly held the lead in Florida until just this last month when a couple of polls showed that Obama has taken the lead. How is that a plus for McCain. Example:McCain held the lead in Pennsylvania until about two months ago, since then Obama has held the lead in the last 12 polls in a row including the last 3 where his lead was 6, 9, and 7%. Meanwhile, about 5 or 6 states that were solidily held by McCain have been moved into toss up because he has lost his lead. How come the LA Times is not reporting this. Even Karl Roves electoral map shows Obama wih a 100 point lead. We are heading towards a landslide. This is the reason the McCain campaign is putting out new ads that lie and smear Obama. They are desperate.

[Michael]

Who cares!

[Carol]

Maybe it's just ME, but when was Obama expected to carry Florida? I thought Florida was a Republican state, yet the Q poll is pretty much insisting that a Florida is trending from Obama to McCain.

What am I missing here? Since when was Florida a blue state? IF Obama can take Florida, that will be a huge thing.

[Yaya]

Based purely on economic conditions and policies, anyone living in those states would be a total brainwashed idiot to vote for a Republican. I don't understand how people are so deluded as to be swayed by nasty political ads to actually vote against their own interests.

I don't have a problem with Republicanism in general, but THESE Republicans, including McCain, have only a few clients: corporations, the wealthy, and whoever's in their particular old-boys-club. It's amazing that people don't see this. I doubt that OH and PA are made-up entirely of CEOs and war-profiteers.

As to Fl, senior citizens live on a few things: Social Security, Medicare, pensions, and employer-backed health insurance. They will not be able to rely on those if McCain is elected.

[ML]

Well, despite the prevailing political winds, it just may be the unthinkable will happen this November: a Republican will be elected to the White House -- not because the US isn't ready to elect a man of color or a woman or whatever but because Obama is just a silver-tongued community organizer with far-left socialist plans.