John McCain picks up steam in Colorado and Minnesota

If John McCain and his loyalists were hoping for something to brighten their day amid the blizzard of coverage of Barack Obama's foreign tour, they've gotten it with new poll results from four key states -- Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The survey by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, conducted between July 14 and Tuesday, contains especially good news for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in Colorado and Minnesota.

In Colorado, the one state among the four that President Bush carried in 2004, the poll showed McCain ahead by 2 percentage points. That lead is within the poll's margin of error, but it represents a positive trend for the Arizona senator; in a Quinnipiac survey a month ago, Obama led in the state by 5 percentage points.

The poll found McCain making even greater strides in Minnesota, host of the convention where McCain will formally become his party's nominee in early September. Obama's advantage over McCain there now is negligible -- 2 percentage points -- compared with a 17-point lead the same survey gave the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee in June.

Here are the new results:

Colorado (nine electoral votes): McCain 46%, Obama 44% (in June, Obama 49%, McCain 44%).

Michigan (17 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 42% (in June, Obama 48%, McCain 42%).

Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 44% (in June, Obama 54%, McCain 37%).

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Obama, 50%, McCain 39% (in June, Obama 52%, McCain 39%).

The Quinnipiac release on its poll notes that McCain "has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters."

Summarizing the change over the last month, Peter Brown, the poll's assistant director, says that Obama's "post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit."

Brown's comment contrasts starkly with his summary ...

... of the results a month ago. At that point, as The Ticket reported, he said: "November can't get here soon enough" for Obama. "He has a lead everywhere, and if nothing changes between now and November he will make history."

A change that could explain McCain's gains, Brown says, is the energy issue. He notes that the new survey found "increased support for additional drilling, which McCain supports and Obama opposes. Roughly one in 10 voters say they have changed their minds and now favor drilling because of the jump in energy prices."

Several other states will prove crucial to the election's outcome, including Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and New Mexico. But the four states Quinnipiac has focused seem, as of now, especially criticial to Obama's game plan for winning the White House.

Amassing the 270 electoral votes required for victory will become much more of a strain for him if he cannot hold onto the upper Midwest trio of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, which every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 has carried.

And snatching Colorado from the GOP column, which the Obama camp long has viewed as very doable, would make for a much straighter path for him to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

The new poll also will hearten Republicans hoping to keep their party's expected Senate losses in November's vote to a minimum. GOP-held seats in Colorado and Minnesota have been viewed as prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, but the survey finds a deadlock in Colorado and a growing lead for incumbent Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

In Colorado, last month's poll put Democratic Rep. Mark Udall 10 points ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer in their fight for the seat GOP Sen. Wayne Allard is giving up; the new numbers show the candidates tied at 44% each.

In Minnesota, Coleman's margin over Democrat comedian Al Franken is now 15 points, up from 10 points in June.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[Isaac N]

Romney will help lock down CO, NV, MI for McCain. Not to mention NH, MA and MN.

[MissClarity]

STEAM? "STEAM?" Steam generally doesn't have a most disagreeable odor Retitle your article so it is politically incorrect. Thank you.

[MissClarity]

I hear Obama's steam doesn't stink.

[Steve007]

Osama is owned by the hard left, and they are unalterably to more domestic energy and victory in Iraq. He can't back out of those postions.

On top of that, "late deciders" in the primaries post-Jeremiah Wright always went for Hillary. Most non-doctinaire people don't trust him...and that won't change.

I think the boy Messiah of the left is going down.

[Kerry]

Would Barack Obama have gone to Berlin to give the speech he gave today if he had not defeated Senator Hillary Clinton----the answer is clearly no. Obama says he came as a citizen and not as a candidate for the Presidency yet he gives a “campaign speech”. “I know that I don't look like the Americans who've previously spoken in this great city” obviously referring to the “race issue”. “The journey that led me here is improbable”, is what he is saying unlikely and unbelievable because I am from America where they have racism there. “America has no better partner than Europe.” Well America has many Allies that have stood and fought with us for freedom, giving the nod to Europe as the best is offensive to the other countries that maybe aren’t as big as Europe, but gave sacrifices and stood by America. Very disappointed that this man is representing America without even being Elected.

[Beltway Greg]

Obama must choose Hagel as his running mate. End the election tomorrow. If not we're going to find out what America would've been like if Ross Perot had become president and Admiral Stockdale had succeeded him. Obama must be up by 10% or more to win the general election in America. Remember what happened to Harold Ford in Tennessee. I love my country but there's significant latent racism and anti-semitism. Sad but true.

Beltway Greg

[Jane]

Mccain will save his dignity if he retired today. We need a president who is stable, young and has physical capacity to endure the burden of the oval office. The man can't even see, speak or stand up.

[Jack]

I agree with Beltway Greg. This Country is full of latent racism and although I think Obama would be an excellent President, some folks will not get passed his color. A sad Country we live in!!!

[Monty Ousley Weddell]

McCain wins on issues!!! The further he gets into the campaign and begins comparing issues against Obama, apparantly at his own campaign expense, since the liberal news media will not cover him equally, the more suport he will recieve. The multi "flip foloping" Democrat now has too many negatives, plus less experience and no military, etc... and thus they will show up after the convention. McCain more closely reflects the largest portion of American voters beliefs, so lets hope that he registers enough Republican voters to win.
Monty Ousley Weddell Dallas, TX

[Emily Wortham]

Obama told an Israel crowd "Just this past week, we passed out of the U.S. Senate Banking committee, which is MY committee, a bill to call for divestment from Iran...."

ONE PROBLEM: oBAMA IS NOT A MEMBER OF THE SEMATE BANKING COMMITTEE.

Another lie to get votes by Obama. When will the American left wake up and smell the lies that Obama tells almost daily? He'll do almost anything to get votes. Will the American Jewish voters be fooled by this man?

[RAL]

Choosing McCain because he favors letting the oil companies drill in currently restricted areas, like ANWAR, is what lazy low-information voters would do.

Don't bother these people with facts. Don't tell them that the oil companies aren't drilling in all the places they currently have available.

Don't point out that it isn't the lack of off-shore drilling, but rather the lack of oil refineries that is a problem.

Don't bring up the fact that drilling in ANWAR won't produce anything for at least a decade.

And by all means, don't point out the evidence that illegal oil speculating is behind the recent "surge" in gas prices.

These voters don't want to think. They are Phil Gramm's whiners. They just want someone to promise them that they can have wat they want with no consequences - if they vote for him.

And that's what McCain does; he makes statements based on fantasy and promises based on nothing. People who would vote for that kind of candidate want to feel the emotional gratification his promises give them without examining why they feel good.

And, beyond that, there will be a lot of racism raising it's ugly head, especially in Michigan. When push comes to shove, anyone lying to themselves about how racist they really are will use any excuse to vote for the white guy. Off-shore drilling will be just one such excuse, so will Islamic radicalism.

[Wedding Planner Liz]

I have never scene a presidental candidate hyped to the extent that the junior senator from Illinois has been. His "judgement to lead" has been proven to be a serious lack of judgement. Can Obama not see the contradiction of him opposing the surge in Iraq as a failure while at the same time advocating a surge in Afghanistan! I mean, if the surge was a "failure" in Iraq, why does he want to have a surge in Afghanistan?

[John]

This is a simple issue. Obama is losing ground because people in the US, including myself, don't particularly care about those countries that haven't supported us. We are concerned about gas prices. The congress can't seem to pass meaningful energy measure to help us out but they can bail out idiotic home owners and government subsidized housing agencies.

But Obama doesn't seem to care. His handlers want him to go over there and act presidential.

So, I'm happy to see Obama's numbers go down. This is a candidate that can't close the deal. He couldn't close the deal with Hillary and he appears to not be able to close the deal against McCain.

Also, I am getting peeved about the media issue and the treatment John McCain is getting.

I'm telling you now, the dew is about to come off this rose and it isn't going to be pretty. Get ready for the Obama camp to play the race card and the media to turn on him.

At the end of the day, people will like Obama less than McCain and that's the issue, likability. McCain should keep doing what he is doing.

John

[Larry Clifton]

America should not relax because McCain is up in a couple of polls. The entire old "mainstream" media is in the tank for Obama and there are many, many ignorant people utterly fooled by them.

Republicans need to unite and fight!

[lightnin]

Borrowing from the article: "if nothing changes between now and November (Obama) will make history." Hopefully, after November, he'll BE history! I think he's going under the bus with Kerry(ecch!), Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, and Humphrey. They've never managed to foist a liberal extremist/socialist on the American people yet, and even if they did think they could force us to vote for Obama for fear of being labelled "racists", it DIDN'T WORK! Go, John, you da man!

[lightnin]

You damn right there's a lot of racism in this country, and 92% of it is from blacks! You will NEVER be taken seriously here, or anywhere else, until you get over it! Saying if we don't give you your way and elect your black liberal extremist then we're racists is crap, you're the racist! I don't know a damned soul who wouldn't vote for Obama because of his outside (color), but I know a hell of a lot of people who won't vote for him because of what they believe he has inside! Don't even say that whites not liking him because of his associations with Wright, Ayers, Dohrne, Rezko, support for Partial-Birth Abortion, etc.is racism! It is perfectly sound and understandable. The democrats could have picked many acceptable black candidates, but they wanted Obama, warts and all, because he's the most liberal possibility they had! Blame him, and blame them! You see him going down, and you won't accept why. Too bad, you lose, America wins!

[jack]

polls this early dont mean anything,well maybe for Mcain supporters give them a little hope,but in the end it will be President Obama.

[virginia mcmahon]

There is no way America will relive the nightmare of the past 8 years - McCain is 99% Bush shadow. We have to have change if our country is to survive, literally. McCain has no understanding of the economy and the middle class, like Bush he has never held a real job outside the government.
Last but not least is John is experiencing early signs
of dementia - his over 5 years of captivity puts him at least 10 years over his calendar years. Plus be believes war is the answer to every problem - this country has got to evolve past the cave dwellers of Afghanistan.

[Raffi Aidiniantz]

Here is the gist of the above article: There is "especially good news" for McCain, because "Obama's advantage over McCain" is negligible.

Well, you know what? Obama still has the overall advantage. And that's not likely to change, because nobody wants old-fart-McCaine with his war-mongering, chauvinistic politics to run our country, and give us 4 more years of Bush.

McCain was a military pilot. The guy's been tortured and held in solitary confinement for long periods of time. As a consequence, he's proven himself to be mentally unstable, often erupting in fits of anger at reporters and other people. He is a complete hot-head; a militaristic nut job.

How could anybody even THINK hot-head McCaine is appropriate to be our president? McCain is totally unfit to be in a leadership role of that magnitude. He's likely to start WW3, and send us into poverty and war, and stress, for the next two decades to come.

We need change in the positive direction, towards prosperity and global stability. We need to place emphasis on diplomacy to resolve disputes where possible, not military action. We need a skilled, tactful ambassador who can represent America brilliantly in the world; and that person is clearly Obama.

[Dox]

Wow! Do you readers think these posts are crazy? If we don't vote for Obama it's because we are racist, not because we don't believe he can run this great country. If we do vote for McCain we are voting for an old guy who can't see, speak or stand. There are only two people with a chance to be elected, so I guess our choice is obvious. Ignore the men, their ideals, their experience, their rhetoric... just do the right thing! You can avoid being a racist while you avoid voting for the old guy! Thanks fellow Americans for making this decision so much easier for us "undecided's".

[noella]

Obama will lose because the media has been kissing his behind. Nobody likes golden boys.

[lal]

Any news is good news when it comes to defeating the anti Christ that is Obama. We don't need another" Hussein" to screw up the world. We just got rid of ONE IN iRAQ. I think he is the anti Christ who'll screw up in Washington and lead the world to the ultimate destruction with his incompetence and immaturity. It scares me to see an immature person even getting a shot at it.

[JIMMIE W BECK]

OBAMA IS FIRST A WORLD CITIZEN AND A UNITED STATES CITIZEN SECOND. IN OBAMA MIND THERE IS A NEW WORLD ORDER WHERE THERE IS NO COUNTRIES BUT A GLOBAL WORLD WITHOUT BORDERS. THIS FAR LEFT WING IVY LEAGUE SLIP AND SLID, FLIP AND FLOPPING LAWYER WHO IS A PLAYING WITH WORDS TO MEAN ANY THING HE WANTS AT ANY GIVEN TIME. IS NOT WHAT AMERICAN NEEDS. WHAT THE UNITED STATES NEEDS IS A PRESIDENT WHO DOES NOT BLOW HOT AIR BUT IS A STRAIGHT TALKER. SINCERELY, JIMMIE W BECK

[John (not the one from the original post)]

John says:
"He couldn't close the deal with Hillary and he appears to not be able to close the deal against McCain."

Uhhh. I thought he closed that deal with Hillary. And he's ahead in every single poll against McCain. Every single one. He's ahead in every single analysis I've seen of electoral votes. What, exactly, do you consider "closing the deal"?

[dave]

ever bother to take a second look at the ads on this page? like, 'I AM disney', with a background similar to the obama campaign ads before, in the same place in the upper right corner? and they changed to this ad right after obama lying in israel claiming the senate banking committee was 'MY committee'? clearly an attempt at making his statement appear less of a lie, and to suggest it might have been meant in some figurative way. even the ad for macy's with the 'hottest trends for fall' either displays an obama look-alike picture or depicts women in black - coincidence? no. it is very obvious that all those ads, not only his campaign ads, are sponsored by his campaign. someone is VERY desperate to get obama, or at least mccain into the white house, at whatever cost.

both illegal candidates by constitutional standards, intellectually unqualified, ethically corrupt, disqualified. spook-like forebodings of the agenda they're determined to fulfill, in a nation that has lost its way: the end of freedom, and global enslavement of humankind. the crumbling bridge that for a short time still affords america to reclaim its freedom, and its civil liberties, and national sovereignty, is the CONSTITUTION. and the only candidate to defend the principles of the constitution is RON PAUL. time is running out.