Gallup Poll update: Barack Obama and John McCain essentially dead even

We've paid a lot of attention to Gallup polls this week, in the wake of seemingly contradictory results by the most-famed brand name in gauging public opinion. By one Gallup measure, John McCain was up; Barack Obama had a solid lead in a different survey by the company and a narrower advantage among a third sample group.

Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll -- the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (correction: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) -- shows the race at almost a dead heat. Obama had a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%.

A week ago, in the midst of his much-heralded overseas trip, Obama began a spurt in the tracking polls -- on Sunday, he reached his peak with a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%. But since then, his edge has steadily declined.

Writes Gallup editor Frank Newport:

"The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change."

Perhaps, but the Ticket and others will be watching the track closely over the next couple of days to see if what may end up as the most-discussed ad of recent vintage -- the McCain camp's spot tying, improbably to many, Obama with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears -- has a clear effect on either candidate's standing.

-- Don Frederick

u

Comments

[Another Fred]

Good point Fred! The democrats were so afraid of the Clintons that it will once again cost them the White House. I guess that 8 years of peace and prosperity wasn't enough. The dems deserve to lose for picking a loser like nobama

[Bob]

Obama definitely has a hidden agenda and the people know it. Too much of what he says and does is DESIGNED to appeal to the masses. It may be a good agenda, but unless Americans understand it SOON it's over for him.

[rachel]

Well Obama underhandedly used his race against hillary to the point noone could say anything against because his camp or the media camp would try to put some racist twist to it. Now all those complaing about what hillary was doing in the primary ha those were only love taps if that stuff hadnt been brought then Mccain would really be having a feild day if the rev wright and bitter stuff was just coming out. I dont want either Obama or McCain running our country. If Obama doesnt want to be seen a celebrity maybe he should stop going on access hollywood giving people magazine, instyle magazine, having his wife go on the view.

[joey64]

gallup, i am 44 years old born an raised in L.A. County, where in blue blazes is a darn gallup poll here. ( oh i get it its a GOP thang!

[hinnis]

OBAMA HAS ALREADY SAID THAT HE FAVORS AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, AND THAT “A COLLEGE OR UNIVERSITY SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RACE.” NOW, OBAMA FINALLY ADMITS HE WILL SUPPORT REPARATION PAYMENTS TO ALL BLACK AMERICANS
.

Sunday, July 27, 2008, before the UNITY 08 Convention in Chicago, he said this regarding the issue of reparations:
.

"I consistently believe that when it comes to whether it's Native Americans or African-American issues or reparations, the most important thing for the U.S. government to do is not just offer words, but offer deeds."

.
http://starbulletin.com/2008/07/28/news/story05.html
.

IS THIS THE WAY YOU WANT YOUR TAX DOLLARS SPENT? And, if you don’t think he will get this through a Congress, both houses of which are heavily Democratic, you are crazy. Just think of the race cards which will be thrown at any legislator who dares vote against reparations. So, if you want you and your children to be disadvantaged because they are not the “preferred race,” and if you want your taxes raised and diverted to “pay back” all black people in this country for a wrong committed 150 years ago, then vote for Obama.

[Raymond Anderson]

Sort of AMAZING that wll the blind OBAMAI CULT and free ride the national press has been giving Obama, that John McCain is in a dead heat with the cult leader.

[BG]

It is simple Obama is Black! He is not Colin Powell who at least had the resume to match anything McCain had to offer. The democrats blew it again! Unbelievable but look who you have running the democratic party, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. White America is not going to get ropa doped by a former community organizer who believes he is the next Messiah. It looks like we are going to be stuck for another 4 years with the same old tired ideas when the country was desperately searching for a real leader. Unfortunately neither candidate offers anything close except empty promises

[Mark]

Clinton lost because she was unwilling to criticize obama. McCain is smart to criticize him. obama has no meaningful experience that makes him qualified to be president, and so he deserves to lose. He should have made a decent contribution to this country before declaring himself emperor of both the U.S. and Europe. Earn it first, then claim it. Not vice versa.

[anon.]

John McCain?? The same guy whom only what, 9% of the viewers thought won the Republican debates in January?? For crying out loud he sounded a lot like Bush that evening.

[BJ]

No wonder the polls have them even... Obama has played the "race" card once too often, and everyone is onto him! He cannot counter allegations that he has no substance, nor does he have the qualification needed for the top office... SO, he resorts to his proven "they want you to be scared of me cos I'm black." Not gonna work this time!

The more I see of Obama, the less I think of him! His campaign has been peppering Hillary supporters with emails begging for $5.00 donations, and telling us McCain's campaign is really getting ugly on them!

Whomever falls for what this man Obama stands for, deserves what they get IF they vote him into office.

[Alex]

The reason the polls are even has nothing to do with the candidates. Yes, I agree that John McCain is dull, and has questionable beliefs and values. I would have much preferred to see someone like Huckabee win the primary.

However, what do you think will happen when it is time to nominate a Supreme Court judge? Obama will pick some liberal activist who will go against God's will and promote murder of unborn children and gay rights. But McCain would nominate a Christian. If he gets a couple of nominations in, then finally the Supreme Court will be unified, and will enforce God's law.

I think all real God-fearing Christians like myself realize this, and so no matter what happens we will vote for McCain. Electing McCain is the first step to turning America into a truly Christian country.

[hinnis]

Bill Bradley: Yes, millions of us are more than a little upset that Obama was "selected" to be the Democratic nominee by the DNC and the party elite, but our distaste for Obama is much deeper than just "sour grapes." Obama is the most ruthless, deceptive, divisive and racist candidate the Democratic Party has fielded in my lifetime. He will not be getting my vote, and as polls show, the votes of about 46% of Hillary Clinton supporters.

[hinnis]

July 31, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%
Race returns to statistical tie

PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%.

[gabe]

lol who's the moron who said all 11% of those not mentioned will vote for McCain. now thats a laugh. McCain failes to prove to the US that he is different that Bush, all he can do is unleash a flurry of smear ads. and you think swing voters will jus say, "well i didnt know before but these smear ads have mad e up my mind. Im voting for McCain" if anything they probably just wont vote or will vote for their dog.
The lead is consistent and i am willing to bet in another week or 2 Obama will enjoy a healthy lead again. McCain is just too out of touch with the real America.

[lbspinguy]

Isn't it great...

We're not better off today than we were four years ago unless you're in the 1 percent wealthy ....

Oil prices are thru the roof even though we have Iraq under our control which is a huge supplier ....

and there's no money for road repairs since money is going off daily to maintain iraq....

and people are voting republican....

it's called the dumming of america ...

money influences the weakest minds ....

[K.T.]

We've got Sen. Hopey and Sen. Cranky running for office. We're doomed for the next four years... I've never seen two politicians blow more smoke up the collective "you know what" of the American people.

[greylox]

**GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT quite adequately explains these ridiculous polls. Take a look at the internals, kiddies. McCain's going to get smoked. A tip to Gallup and other pollsters You're not counting a huge demographic: Young people with cel phones.

[cdub]

I love it - the GOP used his teflon-like status against him.

He is no longer just the man in the empty suit but a reality TV -based wannabe celebrity that has no reason to be.

He's like so yesterday.

[smokey]

I think people are less likely to be honest when race is involved. My guess is you can subtract 3 to 5% from Obama's numbers (or add to McCain's).

NADER/GONZALEZ'08!!

[Jeffrey Allen Miller]

The candidates are both doing a great job of avoiding the issues. I want to know right now what each will do to bring international companies into this nation for job creation. Our companies are shot, and our CEOs are fat but the stock brokers love them anyway. Gotta bring in the European firms to settle this score... And count on this guy to be in line for the first openings. The first candidate to address these important and relevant issues will get my vote. Otherwise I'll simply tear up the ballot in November. Also signed... the nation's token, mean, angry, enraged (growing more so with each day) white middle aged man in Manhattan.

[lightnin]

"Obama" supporters? Is that like a "child's size"?

[lightnin]

The demo's have been deep in denial so long their skins all look like raisins! (If they still don't get it, "de Nile", like in "river"?)

[Bradley LA]

I think we all know that the polls can only tell you so much, didn't Kerry have a lead over Bush in general? I could be wrong but really nothing starts until after the conventions and as everybody knows the undecideds will decide. That's a good thing.

I was turned off by Obama's appeal to the Europeans actually, since when do they know anything in depth about the USA. They just sit and do nothing about most world problems and have benefited the most from American drug companies and consumers who pay full price for their products, if there is no one paying for innovation these products would not be out there, see the recent German courts okaying a generic version of Plavix, in contradiction to the Deutsch Banks statement that the patent won't run out until 2012, guess who gets the bill for the lost revenue? American Taxpayers and consumers. Don't get me started on the Europeans underspending on their militarys due to the American Militarys guarantee of their security. As you guessed I'm a Mccain leaner, but Obama is charismatic and I don't think inexperience is such a bad thing either, I think the ideal is the Clinton and Reagan years, when you had opposing parties in control of the legislative and Executive branches, it keeps both parties honest. Democrats can screw up being the dominant players in Washington just like the Republicans did from 2002-2006, so they should be careful if they get it all in November.

[ALM]

The problem with Obama is that there is too little believable substance and too much flash. He's adored and lauded and looked up to--why?? Because he's a black man, tall, relatively good-looking, suave, articulate and looks presidential in a suit. Reasons to vote him in as Commander in Chief? I sure hope not!!!

Wake up world and stop being so shallow.

[Orinigal Patriot]

This poll won't stand very long. Just wait until debates begin. Johnny boy can't keep his scripted material straight, how is going to be able to keep his freestyle straight. Obama on the other hand is a debate freak. I just hope Obama doesn't make McCain sem too senile.