Gallup Poll update: Barack Obama and John McCain essentially dead even

We've paid a lot of attention to Gallup polls this week, in the wake of seemingly contradictory results by the most-famed brand name in gauging public opinion. By one Gallup measure, John McCain was up; Barack Obama had a solid lead in a different survey by the company and a narrower advantage among a third sample group.

Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll -- the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (correction: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) -- shows the race at almost a dead heat. Obama had a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%.

A week ago, in the midst of his much-heralded overseas trip, Obama began a spurt in the tracking polls -- on Sunday, he reached his peak with a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%. But since then, his edge has steadily declined.

Writes Gallup editor Frank Newport:

"The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change."

Perhaps, but the Ticket and others will be watching the track closely over the next couple of days to see if what may end up as the most-discussed ad of recent vintage -- the McCain camp's spot tying, improbably to many, Obama with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears -- has a clear effect on either candidate's standing.

-- Don Frederick

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Comments

[nancy]

gallup maybe professional, but is any pollster reliable today? based upon the results of the primaries, i would say no. perhaps the U.S. is 2 diverse for the sampling techniques now in use, or there is something in the water. swings of nine per cent in a week for obama? with that kind of results its possible for mccain to be one point up before breakfast and five points behind by bedtime.

[maria]

Obama supporters are nuts. If you are not in love with the golden prince Obama then you are either a racist or a dump. Folks support McCain because they like McCain, period. It is not because of a smear campaign or a hidden racist agenda, or anything else. If you had fallen in love with Obama - fine, but don't expect other to do the same. By the way, I am a Democrat. And thanks, I am voting for McCain.

[Raul PEDRAZA]

Polls don't scare us Barack Obama supporters and neither will all the lies and tactics Karl Rove Republicans can throw at us. We know in our hearts that our man Obama is the one with the greater intellect, the greater integrity,and the better proposals for how to change our country for the better. The days of George W. bush and his buddies is soon over Thank God..

YES WE CAN! SI SE PUEDE!

[Clyde Nugget]

just looks at Obama's friends ..... Rekzo, Wright, Nation of Islam, the rapper Ludacris, Hamas, Fidel.........you can always tell a man's character by the his friends. I'd really like to know what Hillary really thinks of Obama; probably would make my ears burn.

[benvictor]

No surprise to me. Remember, Obama was voting "present" only 4 years ago in the Illinois state legislature. He has zero experience and no record of accomplishment. Indeed, one journalist wrote about about as law professor in Chicago; he failed to distinguish himself and did not write even one paper according to this source who attended that school. This has reached the point: fool me once, shame on Obama; fool me twice, shame on me. People are sooo tired of this emptiness.

[nancy]

gallup maybe professional, but is any pollster reliable today? based upon the results of the primaries, i would say no. perhaps the U.S. is 2 diverse for the sampling techniques now in use, or there is something in the water. swings of nine per cent in a week for obama? with that kind of results its possible for mccain to be one point up before breakfast and five points behind by bedtime.

[Andy Luke]

The Paris Ad is right on taget.

Obama and the girls have same kind of characters, high on apperance and low on quality and substances.

[Bubba Nelson]

There are plenty of relevant negatives within Obama's past life and they need to be known throughout the voting public. It is not at all clear to me why many of Obama's past statements, those of his wife, and his associations with fanatics and racists such as J. Wright, W. Ayers, L. Farrakhan, and others should be considered off-limits.

[John A. Bailo]

Barack's campaign of hatred has failed. Hatred of America and senophobic comments about McCain backfired! Now McCain is picking up steam among African-Americans who see him as the correct path to wealth!

[Bill Bradley]

Look, try to get it straight on this suspect poll.

THIS is Thursday. The poll was not conducted today. Got it?

I mean, really, boys. I know Hillary lost and you can't stand Obama, but get over it.

>Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll -- the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

[dave]

yes, by stark choice of words, it would seem a fitting description, to say they are both 'essentially dead,' even.
as both would-be nominees have sold their soul to new world order global tyranny, and seek to bring about the end of america, and mislead the people to call for their own enslavement.

[hinnis]

The more people learn about the true Obama, the more his numbers will decline. He is desperately hoping that most Americans remain in the dark until November and/or fall for his high priced propaganda ads. Obama is a dangerous, arrogant, inexperienced, deceptive and divisive politician, and must be stopped.
.

Definition of Arrogance: The attitude displayed by Barack Obama during the 2008 Presidential campaign, as exemplified by the following statement:

A witness told the Post's Dana Milbank that at a closed-door meeting of House Democrats, Obama said, "This is the moment . . . that the world is waiting for," and, "I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions."

Excuse me while I vomit!

[Brian]

Gallup must be polling at GOP fundraisers or something...

(Mostly from his biography in wikipedia, i assume its correct since his campaign hasn't been editing recently) McCain graduated at the bottom of his class, crashed at least 3 airplane in non-combat situations, committed adultery on his wife (after her debilitating car accident) with a woman 20 years younger, has a horrible voting record for veterans rights and the environment. He admits (sometimes) that he doesnt know squat about economics, and his (former?)chief economic advisor thinks the current economic situation is all in our heads and that america is a nation of whiners. Not very respectful of women.. when at a campaign event one of his supporters asked "how do we beat the b**tch" (referring to Senator Clinton) he laughed and said her question was "excellent". He thinks pakistan and iraq share a border.
He thinks he is the only one that can win the war on the inanimate object. And lately, he spends all of his time attacking Obama instead of putting forth any ideas of his own.

In contrast, "Obama's popular so maybe he isnt ready to lead", his preacher is a nutjob, he doesnt always wear a flag lapel pin (not part of my daily attire either, i admit). He sings along with national anthem instead of putting his hand over his heart (i thought you were only supposed to do that with the pledge of allegiance?).

So maybe im missing something, because im not seeing how this is even a contest yet, as im sure we will find out in November. Maybe its the experience thing, but our "experienced" leaders havent been doing so well for the last 8 years, and im still waiting for someone to tell me exactly what experience it is that sufficiently prepares you to be president...

[Larry Clifton]

It's the policies, stupid! The reason Obama is falling in polls is because he has no energy policy, no foriegn policy, no economic policy, but he promises to raise taxes and spend a lot more taxpayer dollars. Why would anyone want him
Beyond that, he was Rev Wright's protege and Michelle has "never been proud" of this country.
What's a matter with you people?

[J snyder]

You Obama fans are pathetic. He has had the most favorable media coverage in political history and your afraid of a McCain ad? Maybe your inexperienced socialist leaniing candidate isn't as popular as you think?

[BC]

From anecdotal comments, McCain appears to have a lock on what one might diplomatically call the less than cognizant, non-cogitating section of the American public. A very large and vocal, if not exactly coherent and logical, part of the population that has to be considered well by Obama and his crew. Their support has been the bread and butter (or Coors Light and hot wings) of Republican campaigns. The good news is that they respond well to shiny objects, flags and bold statements that make no logical sense.

[Cindy]

Eight more years! Eight more years! Eight more years!

[Diane]

Obama has taken the high road and McCain the low, it's true but I still think McCain is the better qualified candidate. I think he needs to get out his ideas and credentials and let the public see Obama's empty suit themselves.

[Russell4America]

What's humorous about McCain's weak, laughable attempt at comparing Obama to the likes of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton is that both Spears and Hilton supported Bush in the last election. So the proper comparison of Spears and Hilton would be to McCain, a republican just like Bush, JUST LIKE BUSH IN EVERY WAY. McCain's attack ads are juvenile. They reveal McCain's lack of character and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that his actions are not the hallmark of someone prepared to be the leader of the free world. At best, McCain is delusional. At worst, he's as delusional and dangerous as George W. Bush has been the last 8 years. And we know what the last 8 years has been for the U.S. -- awful in every way.

[lightnin]

OMG! The election is 3 months away, and the Obamorrhoids are ALREADY making with the alibis! I LOVE it! Even with all of obama's millions in questionable donations (that WILL be pursued!), and all his groupies in the press (some of whom seem to be edging toward the exits now!), McCain has ALREADY caught him, and is starting to pull away! Nobody thought that would happen 'til 2-3 weeks before the election! Ya got a choice about why, are people realizing what a fantastic record McCain has in service to his country, both in the military and the U.S. Senate, or are they just wising up to Obama? Ten to one it's wising up! High Five!!
The Obamorons are behaving just like rats cornered by oncoming pit bulls! DAMN, it's beautiful! Can you say "0 for 3!"? Can you IMAGINE the debacle in the "democratic" party in the next 4 years?!! There won't be anything on TV as good as that, I guarantee! Here's hoping they tee up another liberal extremist/socialist/marxist for us again 4 years from now! How about Fonda/Moore in 2012?!!

[Rick]

Obama will continue to falter because of his friends including Ludicris, Rev. Wright, the Weathermen and John Edwards. The Dems wish Hillary had won. What a loser with the american people.

[AJ]

the TRUTH is our subliminal nuanced sense of bias....about the "OTHER";
PLUS
so dastardly veiled and coded messages from the "liberal media",
and Low Road Express candidate...
desparate, devisive,delusional...
running Empty !

[William]

It's become obvious that BHO really is a rock star. That is, someone worshipped by immature juveniles, but not well liked by the more mature populace at large. Remember, with age comes wisdom. The cheering crowds that made Obama appear more popular than he really was were just young teeny boppers that were screaming for the new incarnation of Shaun Cassidy.

[craig Wille]

When does laying out a message in a way that cuts through the information overload out there become negative? I think the issue of Obama's cult-like following which obscures an objective look at his policies and experience is a perfectly reasonable item to discuss.

[Robel]

its clear that the Mccain camp know that . if they don't scare the people about Obama they won't 'win. Most of obama's policies for America are better than mccain's. but the problem is some people don't know obama that much so the mccain camp are defining obama for the people using negative adds.