Field poll says things are getting worse for McCain in California

For those still harboring hopes that California will be hotly contested in the November presidential election, it’s time for a pity party.

The latest statewide poll, conducted by the Field organization, shows Democrat Barack Obama extending his lead in the state and now trouncing Republican John McCain by 24 points, 54% to 30%. In May, Obama’s lead was a smaller 17 points, and in January, an even slighter 7 points.

The Field poll, conducted July 8-14, also demonstrated an enthusiasm gap in California: 51% of Obama’s supporters said they were very enthusiastic about him, whereas only 17% of McCain’s made the same claim.

Obama led strongly among  Democrats, and McCain held a less-dominant lead among Republicans. But among the nonpartisan voters highly coveted by candidates, Obama led 64% to 18%.

McCain has repeatedly stated that he will contest the state in the general election. But most political observers believe that vow reflects a desire to keep voters and donors happy rather than any serious intention to compete in California, where running statewide ads costs millions of dollars per week that can be more optimistically spent elsewhere. Only 32.5% of the state’s voters are registered as Republicans, according to the most recent voter statistics.

Until 1992, California was reliably Republican in presidential contests. Bill Clinton that year became the first Democrat to win the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But changes in the state’s voting pool, including a rise in moderate voters that coincided with a conservative streak in GOP nominees, turned the state toward the Democrats.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry beat George W. Bush by 10 points.

The state is hardly homogeneous, however, as the Field poll showed again. Coastal voters, for example, favored Obama 62% to 24%, whereas inland residents backed McCain by a 44%-35% margin. Unfortunately for McCain, inland voters make up less than one-third of the electorate.

Still, Obama won almost all demographic groups, including 51% of men to McCain’s 35%, and 56% of women to McCain’s 27%. He won overwhelming margins among Asian, black and Latino voters, and won white voters by 47% to 37%. Women and Latinos had powered Hillary Clinton's victory over Obama in the February California presidential primary.

-- Cathleen Decker

Comments

[Scootmandubious]

It's encouraging to me to see Obama doing so well ic California.

I would think that any chance McCain had of challenging in the state ended with his call for more offshore drilling.

[tlsmith1963]

Well, the Republicans think that people are whining & are only imagining that times are bad, so I'm not surprised that they are doing badly. The Republicans are out of touch with average Americans.

[Javalation]

A lot of Californians remember the electric car and know that big oil killed it. As a result they know that the solution lies in alternatives, not in the "solutions" that big oil and their dupes: McCain/Bush are pushing.

[James McDouglas]

OMG,

This shows that Orange County's economic conservatives have zero confidence in John McCain. Finally, some intelligence from the red camp.

From my discussions overseas, this sentiment is echoed throughout the international business community. They're praying for Obama to win. Literally. Like daily... sometimes twice.

California, the 6th or so largest economy in the world... obviously they can't afford another crooked Republican in office.

The rest of America would do well to take heed of what the engine that drives our nation's economy is saying.

We know that the racist warmongering contingent of the Republican party is hopeless, and frankly I'd need to take a shower if their brand of filth was voting for my candidate. But the business oriented and Evangelical Christian Republicans seem to be wising up to just how crooked and hopelessly corrupt the Republican party actually is... I mean it's no coincidence our economy has basically sucked for 40 years under everyone but Clinton. And Carter was just suffering from the oil industry's corruption (Saudi Arabia and the Bush Sr cartel... he was CIA at the time), to be quite frank about it...

too bad those Republican voters didn't listen to us Progressives 4 years ago; maybe they wouldn't have flushed the American economy down the tubes... much less the international economy.

Let's not forget who's directly responsible for 911, Enron, Katrina, the mortgage crisis, the Iraq lies, and now the world economic crisis.

One party: Republicans.

Never forget.

[Emily Wortham]

I lived in California for 9 years. Attempting to refinance our condo, we tried twice with two different institutions. Both times they kept asking for more information (until the rates went up). The crooks then approved our refinancing which we declined as we knew these institutions took their time for higher rates (we had twice the money in banks than the loan we were trying to refinance.) A Calfornia scam. Another banker told me that the state where I had lived did not have as many drifters as Calif. and the people in my former state were more honest and honorable. So it is not surprising that Obama has a big lead in Calif. as Californians basically dance to a different tune than most states. Obama has you fooled but again he may be more your type.

[Scatter Abroad]

Are you kidding? We all know what happened to California, a change in orientation. You have to feel sorry for those who have lived there for many generations, especially inland, and then had giant hedonistic populations overwhelm their votes. Those Southwest commercials about "want to get away" are apt descriptions for many people of conscience trapped in a California they don't recognize. The economy in CA says it all about who is in charge and what has happened to the once proud mantra of "responsibility". Beware to the rest of the country, what has happened in California is headed your way...the rest of the country always follows California on a time delay.

[Lmaris]

Poor Emily. A bank actually wanting to verify her financial position before loaning money, and she thinks it is some sort of scam. Unlike so many in the past decade throwing money to people without the ability to repay the loan, she found financial institutions who followed sane business practices. It is a sad state of affairs when fiscal responsibility is a "scam" and somehow proof a state is out of step with the rest of the country.

No wonder she supports McCain. This tortured logic fits right into his campaign strategy.

[NinaK]

Thank you California! Please ignore the haters Californians, please stay safe. I am sorry so many o you have lost your homes and belongings due to the many fires in your state. I sincerely hope those fires are extinguished very, very soon and that God holds all of you in the palms of His hands.

[plankbob]

John McCain: Running for Hoover's 21st term.

[TJ]

It boggles the mind to think that anyone would choose a Republican after what that party and its leader, George W. Bush, have done to this country in the last 7.5 years.

The man has the lowest approval rating in the history of the presidency, even lower than Nixon at the height of the Watergate scandal. The country has been involved in two simultaneous wars for virtually his entire presidency, and now the country is flirting with a financial crisis not seen since the Great Depression.

To further prove just how surreal George Bushes' presidency has been, one only needs to be reminded that George W. Bush, while campaigning for the presidency in 2000, blamed Bill Clinton for what was then just $20 a barrel oil.

"Democracy is a form of government that substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few."

-George Bernard Shaw

[jurassicpork]

If only 51% of Democrats are voting for Obama, does that mean the other 49% wish the Democratic nominee were someone else?

If so, I feel their anguish and pain.

[NinaK]

lived in California for 9 years. Attempting to refinance our condo, we tried twice with two different institutions. Both times they kept asking for more information (until the rates went up). The crooks then approved our refinancing which we declined as we knew these institutions took their time for higher rates (we had twice the money in banks than the loan we were trying to refinance.) A Calfornia scam. Another banker told me that the state where I had lived did not have as many drifters as Calif. and the people in my former state were more honest and honorable. So it is not surprising that Obama has a big lead in Calif. as Californians basically dance to a different tune than most states. Obama has you fooled but again he may be more your type.

Posted by: Emily Wortham |
--------------------------------
Emily, I am sure you have left an impresson with Californians, and not a very good one. You lump ALL Californians ine two categories: 1) They are dishonest and 2) they are dishonorable!! And you are categorizing Senator Obama into those categories as well. Gee, what a big ego you must havem, your were the ONLY resident in California who was honest and honorable?? Frankly my dear, you are just making crapola up. Like I mentioned in my earlier posting, your comments do not make sense, but I have figured it out; they don't make sense because YOU do not make sense. If you cannot figure your finances, you should hire an accountant to do it for you. I do not see you as being an honest and honorable person, mostly I see you as a bigot tinged with prejudice. I hope you have moved from California back to your "homest and honorable" state. Californians, or any other state, do not need your kind of loyalty and your gross putdowns. Good riddance!!