Dueling Gallup polls, Part II, in the Obama-McCain race

For those keeping score (and in the political world, who isn't?), the day after a Gallup poll caused a stir by showing John McCain leading Barack Obama in a sample of likely voters nationwide, the separate daily tracking poll by the same outfit continued to show the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee ahead among registered voters.

The updated tracking poll, which averaged the results of surveys conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday, gave Obama a 6-percentage-point advantage, 47% to 41%. That's down from Obama's peak lead in the poll of late -- a 9-point margin reported Sunday.

But, as Gallup editor Frank Newport writes today, "Obama has generally led McCain by a consistent, but small, margin for much of the summer. There have been the expected daily fluctuations in the size of that margin, including Obama's recent gain, but nothing so far to suggest any lasting disruption in the structure of the race."

Many of us might be forgiven if we assumed otherwise, based on the distinct poll that Gallup conducted in conjunction with USA Today and released Monday. That was the one showing, among the participants deemed likely voters, that McCain led Obama by 4 points, 49% to 45%.

To add to the potential confusion, among the larger sample of registered voters in the above poll, Obama was ahead, 47% to 44%.

The gap between the two candidates in all of these surveys is within the margin of error for each -- a reminder that in a country that has seen two consecutive presidential races that were barnburners, this one also might remain tight up to election day.

Then there's this useful caveat, courtesy of MSNBC's daily First Read political note: "It's results like these that should remind us that even good pollsters are struggling to poll this year. This isn't an easy time for a pollster. The Gallup folks are in the charge of the best brand there is in public opinion research. So if they are getting screwy results, that should make you suspect of a lot of results you see, particularly on the state level by folks who claim to be pollsters but haven't been doing this for very long."

Obama offered his own horse-race assessment ...

... while attending a fundraiser in Arlington, Va., Monday night. Talking to about 40 supporters, he opined that when he began his White House quest, "there weren’t too many people who thought we were going to pull this off."

Now, he said, “We are ... in a position where the odds of us winning are very good. But it’s still going to be difficult.... We’re not going to see a huge gap develop between now and Nov. 4 [in the polls]. This is going to be a close election. I’m new on the national scene. People sort of like what they see, but they’re not sure.”

Amy Chozick of the Wall Street Journal has more on the fundraiser in this report.

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Associated Press

   

Comments

[John]

The Polls mean very little at this point, Its over For John McCain. You can almost hear the gurgle of a boat sinking. Or the whistle of a plane going down. Nothing can save him not even a clever veep pick., He is a sinking ship. An Old, Old, sinking pirate ship or perhaps a viking long boat. McCain cant win this, He is climbing a mountain on a walker., I dont think McCain can win as the GOP Nominee anyway. Could you imagine McCain even having enough energy to run your local Mcdonalds. Seriously. Think about it next time your in line watching the Mcdonalds manager run around taking orders and shouting orders. McCain couldnt do it. So I ask You, how will McCain be president??? Looks as though the RNC got behind the wrong candidate and they will pay for it., Guess they should of let the primary season play out without trying to minupulate the outcome.. Good news is i think McCain is just about done, I wouldnt doubt the GOP ditch him at the last second and run a younger more charasmatic charachter. Did you see him knock all that stuff off the shelf at the supermarket. the video is at http://www.mccanes.com all the while barack obama is looking like an NBA super star, (arrogence and all) even taking time to stop and have a cigar break video at http://www.theobamaplan.com

[Peter]

I wonder if the RNC isnt minipulating the Polls, It has to be some form of propaganda. I mean how in the world can polls come out with differnt numbers across such a broad base. Smells a little fishy to me. I did go to the link mentioned earlier. Funny watching McCain knock down a whole shelf of items in a store. He looked like steve Urkel. LOL Ha Good Link. ill leave it for others. http://www.mccanes.com I agree, Obama is going to come out on top here. I dont think there is much that can stop him, as long as McCain is the gop's nominee.

[Rick Huffman]

It is hard to believe Americans are so stupid to be sucked into the republican machine again. The republicans are just plain evil, they only look out for one constituent and that's the good ole rich oil buddies, insurance companies, and pharmaceuticals. The democrats maybe weak but not evil and they do want to consider the less fortunate. Look around folks...record deficits, illegal war, torturing prisoners, raping and polluting the environment, twisting facts on global warming and rewarding political cronies without qualifications. McCain is more of this garbage.

[Tim]

How about some information on how many 18-29 year olds are included in these polls?

Methinks that the identification of "likely" voters could very well be done in an outmoded manner.

For instance, how many of the partcipants were contacted on their cell phones, which increasingly, is all that younger people have?

[Jeff Tuttle]

Polls seem to be less and less reliable. The pundits and prognosticators go back and forth as if they too were politicians. Perhaps the thing to do is stop weighing in with speculation and conjecture and just report the news!
Then, and only then, we might actually return to something akin to the democratic process instead of sanctifying opinion makers.

[jefflz]

All of the polls are potentially highly biased depending on the sample. McCain is being aided by the conservative media in this country and the USAToday/Gallup poll is a good example of their capacity to spin the news in his favor when he desperately needs a leg up. . Nevertheless, is refreshing to have someone like Obama on the political front who has the native intelligence to meet heads of state with grace while abroad, and while at home discuss the economy in detail with some of the most accomplished leaders in the field. McCain has so far shown himself to be much too addled to speak with clarity on any subject including his favorite topic "The Surge" which he seems to have invented. The CBS cover-up of McCain's lapses concerning the Surge during the Couric interview is another glaring example of the tremendous anti-Obama bias. The economy is well beyond McCain's capacity to comprehend. After nearly 8 years of reckless and mindless Bushism, the prospect of having another intellectual lightweight like McCain in the White House is chilling to say the least. However, in a country as anti-intellectual as the United States, Obama's brains may in fact be a liability. Finally, the corporate media was in large part responsible for the success Bush had in the run op to the Iraq War. If they continue to shield from the voters a clear view of McCain's doddering state they may be responsible for the further degradation of this nation.

[Morro]

Obama said "People sort of like hat they see, but they’re not sure."

Oh you are so right Mr. Obama and whose fault is that?
How can anyone be sure about you? Are we to rely on what you say as opposed to what you have done? By the way, what have you done?

[Roger]

The elephant in the middle of the room is race. How much will racism factor into the election and how much does it factor into opinion polls.

I suspect some people tell pollsters they will vote for Obama so as not to appear racist, when in fact they will vote against him or not vote.

I hope America is better than this picture I paint, but I fear it is not.

[PacificGatePost]

OBAMA'S DISTURBING VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BERNANKE

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/07/obama-gives-bernanke-vote-of-confidence.html

This does not bode well.

[joseph marcucilli]

The bar is always set higher for Obama .If you listen to literally all the print and news media the words that come up over and over again as if you were in an echo chamber are hubris, presumptive, arrogant.Why not simply say what's really on your mind "that uppidy black guy"?Yes who would be able to accept the idea that he is an equal to a white candidate.If anyone has demonstrated arrogance here ,it is the press and John McCain who does not even repect the man,and suggests he would rather see troops die to win an election.I really will be motivated this year to defeat John McCain who is really been acting dishonorably this whole campaign.

[Julian]

What kind of an electorate other than an extremist Republican will throw his lot with this angry old man whose teetering intellect is embarrassingly visible every time he tries to say something. In the last interview with ABC he couldn't remember the name of Russia's president before then he couldn't read his text, after that he was leaning over his notes throughout his speech. Compare this senility with brilliance of Obama the Messiah! All god fearing Americans will vote for Obama to avoid a visit to Purgatory with Carl Rove.

[Russ]

I'm still trying to figure out if I want my taxes to go up $6,000 bucks when I couldn't even justify spending $1,400 this year on a big screen HDTV.

If I decide that I can do without the $6,000 then I'll vote for Obama.

Of course, I also have to consider all the corporations that are going to leave this country for third world countries with cheap labor and cheaper taxes which means I won't have a job if Obama wins.

What to do...what to do?

[Flapjacks]

Fortunately for McCain, the media has turned this election into a referendum on Obama. If more people were to pay attention to the doddering old man McCain has become, he would get very little of the vote.

[Laurel]

Americans, beware. Are you really thinking of electing another Republican? What have we just been through? McCain is attacking the future, and he is looking pretty pathetic doing so. Why can't he just say I am a Republican, and if you want things to be the way they have the past 4 years, "The Rich Get Rich & The Poor Get Poorer" then vote for me.

[Dan]

Interesting article; lame comments. But, what to expect from the left coast? There are so many reasons to not like Obama, race need never enter the picture. So far, here's the collected arguments against John McCain: he's a Republican; he's white; he's older than Obama; and horror of horrors, he might have a temper. I just hope Shrillary keeps stirring hate & discontent, and splits the dems.

[Jason]

LOL, likely voters? 70% of peple deemed unlikely voters (me for one, but I vote every year) are Obama supporters.

The ground swell of of-the-radar supoprt for Obama will leave the GOP buried and wondering what happened for year and years. I can hear the GOP whiners now: "Election fraud!" "election fraud!!!" because the results willbe so lopsided againt what "polls" have shown.

Silly GOP.

[LI]

Americans, beware. Are you really thinking of electing another do nothing Obama will give you a bright
future?
In Chicago Tribune, Saturday July 7-26-2008, there is article titled
" Illinois is 43rd in black male graduates". "fewer than
half black male students across the country are graduating from high school,
and the number is even lower in Illinois and Chicago, according to national
study. ......graduation rates from the 200-06 school year and found that
Illinois ranked 43rd out 50 states for the number of black male students
gradating that year. In the city that year, only 37% of the `102,185 black
students graduated, compared with 62% of their white male counterparts......
".
In Chicago Tribune 12-16-07, there is special report about Illinois'
poor. There are about 1.5 million people in Illinois--- 12 % of the the
state population live below the poverty line.
All These happen during Obama' senator year in Illinois.
Sen. Obama was a community organizer in a tiny black community
for more than 10 years in south of Chicago before he was elected as senator.
I would like you to ask him what he did to increase black male high school
graduation rate and decrease the poverty during his Illinois senator year?
How can American people trust him when he did not change anything in his
community and his state.

Li lake county, IL

[Bill]

Reasons to not like McCain: 1) he's a republican. 2) he will keep this country in the same tailspin it's been in for the last 8 years. 3) his whole campaign is based on Obama character assassination because he has no substance to his own. 4) who wants some old bitter man representing them in the eyes of the world, supposedly 'leading' a nation when everybody knows republican politicians only do what's best for their wallet.
Sadly the overall intelligence of this country is slipping to the point where 51% of us might be weak-minded enough to actually vote for yet another 4 years of poor political policy and worldwide hatred toward America.

[valdisfox]

The only thing more mouth-watering than a total blowout against the GOP this fall is the knowledge that they brought it upon themselves. Of all the administrations I've lived through (back through Nixon), and all those my parents can vividly recall (back through FDR), never have we seen one so utterly criminal, contemptible, arrogant and incompetant. In their very long list of things they clearly set out to destroy, like the Constitution, U.S. credibility abroad, due process, the fiscal surplus, international sympathy for 9/11, etc., etc., the Bush-Cheney administration and their cronies apparently neglected to leave "Republican Party" and "Electable Successor" off the list. I have to agree, I actually LIKED McCain back in 2000; if only he had been the nominee over Bush. The outcome of this election is nigh inevitable, but one thing we do know for certain: expect the attacks from McCain, Fox News, etc. against Obama to become more shrill, devious and desperate as the summer wears on.

[Jimbo]

The funny part of polls to me is the 2 to 1 advantage on whom is the better CIC. Obama stupidly questioned Petraeus view, Although I have minimum forces, I think I can do it. Other than that he is right on Iraq and Iran not central to the war on terror, right on Afghan buildup, right on where the enemy has it's strongest hold, right on talking getting results, and right on Maliki embraced drawdown time, especially with the caveat of talking to commanders on the ground before withdrawing. McCain has voted against Powell on the Somalian mission, against Shinseki on Iraq (he resigned before carrying out an order which would hurt America), got our best military tactician Adm. Fallon fired with his Iran is a grave threat, did not want increased troop presence in Afghanistan like Mellon recommended until recently, won't talk to enemies, thought the surge caused the Anbar Awakening instead of the sheiks, 4 months before voting in congress requesting help, McCain only recently came to the Mellon view of drawdown and Afghan increase. McCain voted against more educational benefits for returning warriors. McCain wants to slow the withdrawal and increase Afghanistan at the same time. 12,000 are already on stop loss, can you say draft? McCain does not want to talk, but thankfully Baker and Gates do. Lets give more to my wife is his tax plan. He spends 2 billion on alternative energy and Obama spends 15. Obama's tax package gives more to those under $125,000 and has great incentives for education. Al Qaeda in Iran? Iraq is central to the war on terror? Iraq and Pakistan share a border? The Czech Republic hasn't been since the 90's? Obama wants to lose a war? This is not what I consider good CIC material. Obama may be weak in not knowing commanders are nearly always right, but learns quickly and is following Mellon and advisors advice in shaping strategy. His main advisor and friend was stopped by the Pentagon as being a political apparatchek, but as a Senator Obama would be let in. Whether or not Obama explains adequately, the fact remains a distinguished retired general, whose blood, sweat, and tears, kept Obama and his family safe, was denied being with him visiting wounded troops. It would be a slap at the general and his service, if Obama went in and left him behind.

[Joyce]

Obama supporters are shivering in their boots, and McCain is pulling ahead full steam. Why? Maturity for one, experience for another. Obama has "changed" his mind on a number of issues and has come out in support of Bush several times. That has the Democrats upset to no end, and blacks are becoming uncomfortable with Obama's way of talking down to them. McCain is a sure win in November.

[So what]

For you Dem's out there who are so excited to be up in any poll right now, I just want to inform you that it is normal for the Democratic Candidate to be leading in the summer months. If you ever paid attention to the past elections. The past two times G.W. won the elections, ya...He was losing in the summer...And sadly, by more then what they have Obama up. Good luck in November when it really matters.

[Dan Ferrell]

The poor democrats. It is so funny how they accuse the Republicans of whining and crying foul at the polls when that is all they have done for the last 8 years. God help us if Barak Hussein Obama becomes "king" of this country. All I'm saying is, "don't gather all your eggs in one basket before the election has even come". I just resent having to pay for all the slackers to live comfortably in this country when I have worked hard all my life for what I have. Wonder if this post will make it.

[Democrats 08]

Anyone who actually thinks McCain will do right by the American people and we will prosper under his leadership is delusional. John McCain openly admitted he is weak on the economy, will never let us end the money pit that got us into this deep deep hole that is Iraq war and McCain will leave huge tax cuts in place for the very wealthy. Just those three points alone equal a failed and disastrous economy ahead for us all worse than the serious debt and decay we have already suffered due to the irresponsible policies of Bush. Obama is a chance at the very least even if you aren't crazy about him, he is a million per cent a better choice than McCain will ever be.

[chuck]

the last time i voted for a republican for president was my first election, 1968. the next time will be this november! McCain is the most progressive candidate since teddy roosevelt (1904) & reading these letter, few recognize it. it horrifies me that people lump mccain w/ Bush who is the stupidest man ever to run for office & we have 8 years of proof. if you think mccain is another bush you/re as stupid as bush. obama only talks about change he is keeping the money chase alive in these ridiculously expensive elections because he can, he has the money. bye bye reform. McCain will fix things, he's proved he can get things done. I'm not gambling on an unknown flapjack windbag.