Barack Obama & the South: Forget about it, says an expert

As of now, Barack Obama seems committed to competing vigorously in Georgia and North Carolina -- the two states are among 18 that have been targeted for two waves of general election ads by his campaign.

But Obama's ultimate chances of carrying those two states -- as well as Mississippi, where some of his supporters believe he has a shot -- are nil, argues Thomas Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland's Baltimore County campus.

Schaller brings an impressive pedigree to the table in making his case; he's the author of the 2006 book “Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South.” As summed up in this blurb, Schaller contended that for Democrats -- certainly those seeking the presidency -- "spending valuable resources in Southern states is a dangerously self-destructive strategy..."

In an Op-Ed piece in today's New York Times, he focuses his general thesis on the particulars of Obama's candidacy. For instance, he walks through the prospect of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee maximizing black turnout in Mississippi and winning 95% of that vote (John Kerry corralled 90% four years ago), and concludes that Obama still would come up short in the state.

A major hurdle for Obama throughout the Deep South, Schaller writes is this: "the more blacks there are in a Southern state, the more likely the white voters are to vote Republican."

The one state in the region that Schaller thinks Obama has a "reasonable chance" of winning is Virginia -- in part because the percentage of its black population is low, compared to most other Southern states, and in part because, he writes, it has been transformed by a "huge influx of upscale non-Southerners."

Virginia also is one of the states where the recent spate of Obama ads has been airing (a list that contains several traditionally GOP states, as we noted previously).

Despite Schaller's overview, many Democrats in the South are feeling feisty these days, as illustrated by this news from Mississippi.

President Bush traveled there today ...

... to headline a lunchtime fundraiser for Sen. Roger Wicker, who is seeking a full term for himself after taking over the seat Trent Lott gave up awhile back.

As the MSNBC political shop noted this morning, the state Democratic Party scheduled a news conference preceding the event to “outline why a high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.”

MSNBC's First Read political note then added a bit of incredulous perspective. "Imagine: The Mississippi Dem Party believes it can run an anti-Bush campaign against McCain (and Wicker). This ain’t Ohio or Michigan or even New Jersey -- it’s frickin’ Mississippi."

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Associated Press

Comments

[Wm Tate]

Nice picture of typical southerners you used to accompany this entry.

I'm sure it's not an attempt--intentionally or not--to make anyone who opposes Obama look like a racist.

Is it?

-Wm Tate,
http://www.atimelikethis.us/

[Tim]

dose gize er lokin shmart.

[Clyde Nugget]

Even though Texas is not the South as some people believe, it took a President from the Great State of Texas to sign and enact the Civil Rights Act. Don't forget that, you liberals.

[YardBird]

Obama already has his black vote lock...his whole strategy in all 50 states is to consider that a given and even throw away the Clinton supporters.

He plans to carry the day strictly on new young voters with his MTV approach.

Sold and packaged thin just like the primaries.

Look back at the results and you will see he took his New Dukakis Caucus of eggheads and blacks and spiced it up with college kids and cherry picked all the urban congressional districts which the Dem formula for delegate allocation ended up dropping more delegates into his lap than his vote share would have given him in most states.

He can send Dean and Brazil thank you cards for all their help on how the strategy won.

[Forrest]

Wm Tate, HELLO, there are a lot of RACISTS in this country. It's so sad but so true. Obama has a tough battle ahead. May he please come out on top. We are in BIG trouble if not.

[Jim Nasium]

Absolutely ! to the poster before me

You know..the media is just a bunch of Obama cheerleaders. Anything they can do to make republicans ignorant is what they will do.

Yet more than 90% of blacks voted for the black canidate in the primary. How many stories have you seen on that type of racism?

None..all you hear are questions of whether wihites are going to be racists..forget the fact that the biggest percentage of a single race voting for a like canidate was the black vote for Obama

Yeah..like they all just happen to agree with Obama

Polls show that If not for the minority vote..McCain would win every state in the country--even NY. If white america would realize what is going on maybe they could see that its an anti american agenda that will be put forth--as minorties have an axe to grind with whites. If they didnt--Hillary would have at least picked some black votes.

[Steve]

I completely disagree with your assesment. First off you disregard the role of bush's unpopularity in dragging McCain down both due to his party affiliation in addition to their virtual agreement on all the important issues. With the economy in the tank and gas prices soaring, I have no doubt that enough new voters along with voters that have had it with the republican administration will be a major force to reckon with this election cycle.

[Jim]

I am a white Southerner, proud of my roots and a solid supporter of and contributor to the campaign of Barack Obama.

While I disagree with the premise of the article I acknowledge that it is a rational and intelligent point of view. I sharp contrast, whomever decided to publish that photo with the article is a narrow minded idiot.

I find the photo as offensive as alifornians may find a white man portraying Obama in blackface. It reduces the complexity of the experience, roots, and development of the Southern white man to our most ignorant demonination.

I don't think that every Californian is a vacuous as Paris Hilton. That would be unfair of me. However, there is apparently one scalawag who is that vacuous who decided to put this photo in this article.

Proud of the Glory
Stare Down the Shame
Duality of the Southern thing

[Manzone123]

The picture you use explains your prejudice towards the South. But since there was no caption to the picture and no relevance of the picture to the article,
I'm finding you too ignorant to be read in the future - instead, I'll go and listen to the brayings of a jackass.
And I'll be better off for it.

[bob kholos]

John Kerry lost the entire south, was a worse campaigner than Obama, and still almost beat an incumbent President-GW Bush.
Therefore Obama can still lose the entire south and win the Presidency.
He'll win the West with the exception of Arizona and Utah.
I'm just waiting to be invited to Senator Obama's swearing-in.

[Chris]

Seems that Mr. Schaller is counting only the black voters and the klan (judging by the picture). Lets not forget that there are intelligent white people in the South who are furious with the Republican mismanagement of the last 8 years. We are sick and tired of the Bush regime and the good ole boy blunders that have nearly ruined this country.
The key to this electiion is the truth. . . and the truth is Obama has a vision for this country. McCain has ?? I don't know what McCain has, I've been looking for signs of intelligence from his campaign and have been disappointed to date. They appear to be gearing up for the typical Republican mud slinging, deceive 50.01 percent to win type election, along with the associated whining ("Obama can't be trusted, he is not playing by our rules, General Clark is part of an overall trend of telling the truth about McCain, tax and spend liberal, tax and spend liberal").

[Scott Nash]

I've lived in the South. Though that picture isn't an everyday sight - it's not an unfair characterization. You get a LOT of that, even in Atlanta.

I still have hope that parts of the south will come though for Obama, but don't forget - racism in the north is institutional. Racism in the south is CULTURAL.

[Tongassberry]

Obama supporters aren't going to concede the South.

We have Bruce Springsteen, John Mellencamp and Bob Dylan on our side. Each of them have loyal fans. John Mellencamp is a Conservative Democrat Artist, Bob Dylan is a Christian and Bruce Springsteen's songs are American Icons and brings everyone together across America.

John Mellencamp - Small Town
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eDkAG3R0h8

Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2feoIM9baI

Bruce Springsteen - Radio Nowhere
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmLt6kcZ72Q

Obama '08

[Hunter]

As someone born and bred in the South, and a life-long Democrat, I found the photograph accompanying this story to be incredibly offensive and out of date. All that was missing was the theme song from "Deliverance." Having lived in various other regions of the U.S. for the past three decades, I'm hard pressed to detect any real differences in racial attitudes among whites elsewhere. If anything, racial prejudice is more insidious and destructive in states such as Minnesota, where I currently live, and where whites insist that they are completely color blind. To my mind, two factors other than race have kept the South in the Republican camp for the past several decades. The first is the intensification of evangelical Christianity, a nationwide phenomenon, but one with particular strength in the South. For evangelicals, the hot button issues that lead them to vote Republican are abortion and gay rights, not race. The second is the increasing suburbanization of the South, fueled by the the migration of Northerners and Midwesterners. Most of these newcomers, in my experience, tend to be political conservatives who are attracted to the Sun Belt's low taxes and cheap real estate. In other words, this migration stream is NOT a cross section of the U.S. population but one that is disproportionately conservative. In my home town, virtually all my old friends and relatives remain Democrats; it's the McMansion-building newcomers who have transformed it into a Republican bedroom community of Charlotte.

[RaferJanders]

With that picture, Hmmmm maybe some Southerns are Cheering there side at the Gettysburg renactment, It is possible, I lived in the South, 6 yrs in Georgia, 2 yrs in New Orleans, Heck I know black people that voted for David Duke, If you are not voting for Obama because he is black, well it is your right to be an idiot, I won't vote for Baby O or the Grumpy Ole Troll, Yes Obama is a amazing speaker, that talks about change and peace, I know of another great speaker who preached peace and change, and he was elected by a landslide 87% of the Popular vote, The Germans are still trying to live that one down, So who to vote for, Ron Paul will still get my vote. Call it a waste or whatever you want, As for the angry little troll I would vote for Hitler before I would vote for McShame.

[Cheryll]

Your right..there are a lot of racists...a lot of them black...it's really very sad that African Americans can only see Obama's color..They appear they would vote for a black bear as long as it was black...but a skunk is white and black...

[Cryos]

Wow to me this is a poster child of the double standard of racism in this country. There appears to be a lot of insinuation in between the lines of this article not including the associated picture and direct borderline racist if not racist assertions.

I have lived in several states and regions in the United States so am fortunate to firsthanded know better than to associate individuals with the stereotypes of different regions. I hope others who haven't had the opportunity have the ability to see through the smokescreens.

I have friends of many different races/nationalities and feel that any racism is bad. People have the right to think what they want as long as they don't act on it in my opinion. However I think the double standard increasingly pushed regarding racism has reached a critical point and this election cycle has highlighted it.

Freedom of the press allows venues to print what many find deplorable however I hope an increasing number of people begin reacting to racism as in this article and accept it no more than mainstream pro white racism would be allowed. When we can celebrate what we have in common and VALUE but not divide with diversity this country will be much better off. The current politics of divide and conquer help keep the populace distracted from the corruption in both major political parties.

[PC]

First off, that "article" was really a thinly veiled and poorly written insult to millions of Americans. The author of the article is a fool and should be acknowledged as such.

Second, the "political scientist" they quote is not only defeatist and cowardly, but he is also prejudiced against people from the South and not ashamed to show it. I think it's a sad reflection on the quality of whatever doctoral program he received his degree from that such stupidity isn't stamped out somewhere along the line.

Does this article have any real meaning, or is it just a way to suggest that the democratic process in America is broken and that people shouldn't vote their conscience because it doesn't matter? How stupid and unpatriotic.

[chrispc88]

This article is sickening and is not a representation of the south. Just because there are a lot of conservatives in the south does not mean that all conservatives are racist idiots as depicted in that picture. To label us as such, is by definition prejudice. I have lived my whole life in southwest Missouri, and have seen the confederate flag maybe half a dozen times in all my 32 years. I find it very offensive - just as anyone should. To imply that just because I live in the south, or just because I'm conservative - that I am like minded to the level of morons depicted in this picture is simply revolting.

[dfgsdf]

.... He already won the AL, MS, and GA in the primaries.
Was the author even from the south?!?

[jimbo]

The more blacks that Obama brings to the polls the more whites will rise up and vote against Obama. Its not only the race issue in the South, its the Muslim rumors, the terrorist connections , the racists friends like Wright and Farrahkan , the angry anti -american wife, the fli flopping on all of Obamsa postions etc etc etc ........ the Democrats were out of their minds to nominate this guy- and they will pay for it in November. Thats why Hillary scored so well in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennesee etc.....what part of it do you not get Nancy Pelosi and Howie Dean ??? ...you ultra radical idiots !!

[herbito]

90% says it all! Who are the racists?

[RoBoTech]

".... He already won the AL, MS, and GA in the primaries.
Was the author even from the south?!?

Posted by: dfgsdf "

That was the DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!
It's a long shot for Obama to take these states in the General.