Too large a Democratic advantage in new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll?

A well-known Republican research firm argues that the voter pool tapped for the new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll was too skewed toward Democrats -- a challenge that causes the GOP strategists to question the double-digit lead the survey gave Barack Obama over John McCain.

The case against the poll, laid out in a memo sent out today by Public Opinion Strategies, in turn sparked a response from survey director Susan Pinkus, who stood by its methodology and findings.

Part of the dispute reflects a long-standing disagreement between independent pollsters and partisan operatives (something The Times wrote about four years ago) -- whether or not to tinker with a poll to make sure its respondents reflect the nation's political composition at some fixed point, such as the most recent election.

Pinkus, like most nonpartisan pollsters, rejects that notion. Discussing the current survey, she says, "The poll was weighted slightly, where necessary,  to conform to the Census Bureau’s proportions of sex, race, ethnicity, age and national region. The poll was NOT weighted for party identification since party ID is a moving variable that changes from one election to another, or when one party may be favored more than the other."

As a result, the survey simply asked respondents their party affiliation or inclination, and came up with this breakdown: 39% Democratic, 22% Republican, 8% something else, 4% refused to say.

There's the rub, insists the memo from Bill McInturff, Liz Harrington and David Kanevsky. They write that these figures, and the 17 percentage-point gap between the two parties, are "greatly out of line with what most other surveys are reporting."

The memo cites several other recent polls in which the party ID gap ranged as low as  plus 6 percentage points for the Democrats to as high as plus 14.

It then asserts: "McCain’s double-digit deficit is not a reflection of reality, simply a result of an unusual party identification result in this survey.... If party identification on the L.A. Times survey is recalculated to ... 29% GOP / 39% Dem / 27% Ind / 5% Don’t Know/Refused, the ballot would be 40% McCain – 47% Obama."

Pinkus responds that ...

... while the result for self-described Democrats may seem high, "this is what the poll got from a random sample of 1,233 adults nationwide, including 1,115 registered voters (which includes listed, unlisted and cell phone users)."

She also notes: "These days, the Republicans are not doing well -– (in the new poll) 78% think the country is seriously off on the wrong track, 82% think the economy is doing badly, 75% said the country is worse off economically since George Bush became president almost eight years ago, and more voters blame Bush and his administration for the rise in gas prices.  Only 23% of voters and all Americans give Bush a positive job approval rating (the worst rating since President Nixon's last days in office).  With all the negatives associated with the Republican Party and President Bush, I am not surprised that the public would move away from the party in power."

You can count on this type of argument over poll results flaring periodically during this campaign ... and in future races.

The Public Opinion Strategies memo makes this good point: "It is important that both the campaign, as well as reporters covering the campaign, not over-react to every single survey that is released. "

And, as pollsters such as Pinkus continually caution the journalists they work with, surveys are useful for spotting trends but they also are only a snapshot of a particular moment in time.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Gimme A BREAK!]

Well, that Party wanted a finger puppet, so they could cut taxes and run amok with profiteering. Now the finger puppet has given so many of us the Govt Green Weenie, that he has poisoned the well. McBush has ZERO Chance of the Oval Office. I'm looking forward to masses of ANGRY voters flushing a whole slew of INCUMBENTS from office, regardless of Repub or Dem....sign me, one VERY ANGRY, BETRAYED Republican.

[B Knotts]

Doesn't one normally have to have some qualifications in order to work in the polling field? I mean, I don't consider myself an expert, but everything about this poll is just laughable, and appears to reveal someone who is not familiar with political polling.

The Republicans are having some difficulty, but a 17 point party ID spread is absurd.

And using "adults?" Any serious poll uses "likely voters," or "very likely voters," not "adults," or even "registered voters."

You have to find the people who actually are going to show up to vote.

[Ted in Jersey]

That sure is an accurate poll. They couldn't even get a proper mix of people to answer the questions. Another example of shoddy and slanted journalism. The spread of respondents matches the results. What a shocker!

[OneMoreDem]

Hum... I don't doubt that the gap is very real. McCain is going to have a very hard time if he continues to stick to nuke power, drilling, and coal. People want clean alternatives. And they are aware that it can be done. McCain seems to have shot himself in the foot this last week so earlier figs were probably more favorable. Day by day I feel like his message veers toward bush lite in an effort to get donations and money from the bush supporters. Too bad. I thought McCain was better than that.

[Joe]

After the crap the Republicans have pulled, 15% is to SMALL an advantage.

If they had any brains at all, the Republicans would be the ones calling for Bush's impeachment in order to wash their own hands. I doubt it would work this late, though.

[kiannone]

Bush and his cronies have made the filty rich filty richer, and screwed everybody else.

[Hugh]

What could be wrong with the supposed 25% who seem to be ignorant.

[Redman]

I want whatever the 23% of Americans are smoking who think Bush is doing a good job. I hope those people are not driving on the highways.

[theduke]

If they weighted the results to reflect liberal/conservative views rather than Democrat/Republican affiliation, I wonder what the result of the poll would be.

More responders invariably claim to be conservative than liberal in polls going back many years. I don't believe that has changed very much.

[brkdckdawg]

i tend 2 agree somewhat with ralph nader's assertions about the senators attempt at not ovr turning the apple cart but if he was trying to pander 2 white voter by not trying to appear 2 black then every time he's seen with his family in public there it is 4 the whole world 2 see on the other hand there is more 2 america than rich or middle class there r alot of poor folks also n it's not just vets that r homeless n downtrodden did someone do a survey that sez poor n or homless people don't vote so r 2 be out of sight n plain view like the crazy kinfolk no one talks about this year u have my vote so unless u want 2 b just another 1 term president remember we the people means all the people

[greg]

I don't trust any of these polls anymore anyway..I bet am not alone.
If I conducted a poll "just right" I could make it appear that the LA Times was making record profits and hiring additional reporters, due to increased subscriptions, and not having to rent parking space in their parking structure ..But no matter how I tried to sell the finding of such a poll, everyone would know it was B.S.

LA Times= NO credibility.

[Concerned Man]

Shows how stupid people are about the government. Congress makes lwas not the president...blame them. Oh wait - cannot do that as that would imply that Nazi Pelosi and the Democrats have not done a thing in two years. After being swept in the majority on the ruse of a new day in government, it is more corrupt than ever.

Thanks Dems and cannot wait to see what kind of stuff gets passed between them and Barry

[gerrrg]

They want pollsters to un-randomly select people? Well if that's the case, just use internet polls. Agreed, there is no point in focusing on a single poll in the month of June. But this gives us a basis to look at the trail to see if this was either an anomaly (so long as they stick to the same methodology) or something siginificant. If they change the methodology we have no basis for comparison and that one poll will have been a complete waste of money.

[Joe]

It's a mess, no doubt, but if this natiowide wake up call finishes off conservative Republican ideology as we know it, it will almost be worth it

[Skye]

There has been a substantial increase in the number of Americans who self-identify as "liberal" and a distinct unwillingness of potential voters to identify themselves as "Republican," contrary to the statement from "theduke" posted above. GOP apologists can commisserate all they want, but they are going to get creamed on election day.

[don]

This country has been on the wrong track since slick willie.

[Creative pollsters]

This is just a fine piece of fiction with wich the leftist lunatic fringe is intellectualy masterbating with. Truth in polling suffers a black eye with the complicity of the LA
Times who is falling into yellow journalism.

[Libby]

Something is very wrong about the LA polls. I worked in Market Research for 5 years and you simply do not get the great difference from everyone else's polls unless you are doing something WRONG in how you select your survey, demographics, and word your questions.

If Real Clear had a reality check they would take LA poll off their polls that they use to come up with their average. This one poll skews the average.

No wonder people are losing faith in polls. Hillary got more real votes but lost. McCain is losing big time because of the inclusion of the LA polls.

The November elections might just close down a lot of polling companies, when the people who pay them realize that they didn't get objective data to work with, but a bunch of results designed to placate those who pay their fees.

LA polls must be taken at the high school level of (non) voters. .

[Patricia]

I worked for a research firm also and I think all this polling is pure nonsense. I remember being held to polling only certain area codes. Besides that someone is paying for the polling to be done and it is the purchaser who makes the demands on who, what and where the polls are being made to even EVEN if it is the research firms themselves.