Barack Obama ad targets include some shockers

Much attention, understandably, is being paid to the notes Barack Obama sounds in his first general election television ad, which starts running Friday and can be viewed here.

Its emphasis on family values, self reliance and patriotism would have made Ronald Reagan's media shop proud. And in case anyone misses the point, the spot's title -- "Country I Love" -- says it all.

What really grabs us, however, is where the ad will appear (and, in one case, where it won't).

For the most part, the 18-state list is predictable. It includes the battlegrounds, large and small, that political analysts expect to watch through election day: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico among them.

But the list also includes a handful of reliably Republican places where Obama aides have been saying they believe he can compete, based on strength he showed among certain voting blocs during the primary season.

The states in this category are Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Virginia.

And then there are two states -- Alaska and North Dakota -- where the airing of the Obama ad demonstrates that:

A) His campaign knows something about these GOP redoubts that the rest of us doesn't;

B) When you're riding herd over an organization that raises massive amounts of cash seemingly without breaking a sweat -- and just today announced it was breaking free of the restraints imposed by the campaign finance system, as our friends at The Swamp write about here -- you can afford to take a flier on a couple of longshots, especially when the media markets are inexpensive;

C) It's always fun, when the November election still seems a long way off, to play in a few of your rival's backyards, if for no other reason than to cause some headaches on the other side.

Probably some combination of A, B and C explains the decision to advertise in Alaska (which President Bush carried with 61% of the vote in 2004) and North Dakota (which Bush won with 63% of the vote four years ago).

Looking at all seven states where the Obama ad buy raises eyebrows, here are some of the daunting historical facts ...

... he must overcome:

** Four of the states -- Alaska, Indiana, North Dakota and Virginia -- have voted Republican in each of the last 10 presidential elections (i.e., every one dating back to and including the 1968 race).

** Among the three others -- Georgia, Montana and North Carolina -- only one has gone Democratic more than once over that time span, and that was a fluke. Georgia stood by its native son, Jimmy Carter, in the 1976 and '80 elections (and also was carried by Bill Clinton in 1992).

** North Carolina's sole break with the GOP came in '76, when Southerner Carter won it; Clinton claimed Montana in '92 (but then couldn't hold it in his 1996 reelection victory).

** The bottom line: in the combined 70 presidential contests in these states since 1968, the Democratic candidates have lost 65 times!

The audacity of hope, indeed.

The surprising omission we mentioned from the ad list is Minnesota.

Once staunchly Democratic in White House races, it became less so in the last two elections. Al Gore carried it by about 60,000 votes in 2000; John Kerry did better four years ago, winning it by about 98,500 votes (out of more than 2.8 million cast). But John McCain will be spotlighted in the state when Minneapolis/St. Paul hosts the Republican National Convention. And if he picks the state's Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, as his running mate, chances are Obama will have to make a concerted effort to hold onto Minnesota.

Also worthy of note is that, as of now, West Coast TV viewers won't be seeing the new Obama ad. That indicates the confidence -- justifiable -- he has about his prospects in California, Oregon and Washington state.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Nathan]

Maybe his operatives have been reading www.fivethirtyeight.com, which is currently making projections of some very close races in Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, among other places.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/afternoon-polling-update-618.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/why-obama-should-visit-alaska-part-ii.html

[GC]

There's a decent chance that a combination of a better than usual Democrat vote and Bob Barr will end up costing McCain Georgia like Perot did for Clinton in 1992. Georgia was like 43-42 in favor of Clinton thanks to Perot.

[Amie]

I think it's great that Obama has decided to air his ad in Alaska! As an Alaskan who attended the first, and only, democratic caucus ever held in Alaska, the support base was overwhelming and I truly believe that if there was ever a year that this historically red state could turn blue, this is the one.

The caucus location was too small, by thousands, and I've seen more Obama '08 posters around town with no McCain presence whatsoever. Add that to the fact that our Republican senators are involved in more scandal investigations than ever before, and our veteran senator Ted Stevens is being challenged by Anchorage's mayor... this could be an interesting and worthwhile year in politics for Alaska after all. It's a great move by the Obama team, and I'm not surprised at all.

[Michael]

It's a good ad, and a good introduction to Obama for people who still harbor misconceptions about him. I hope he can afford to run it nationwide.

[YHW]

As a Democrat in Virginia, I would say that it should NOT be shocking that Obama is making a play for VA. VA elected a Democrat in the last Senate race (Jim Webb), and the heavy favorite to replace Senator John Warner (R) is former governor Mark Warner (D). Dems have also won the last two races for governor.

At the same time, demographics in heavily populated Northern Virginia (NoVa) mean that it is only a matter of time before VA goes purple, if not blue. And the statewide Republicans seem to not care about competing in NoVa.

[oil field worker]

Obama has lied again about money for his campaign. Where is he getting all this money, not from small internet contributions? Follow the money, someone, follow the money. What countries are giving him money and what organizations, under the table so to speak. He's not getting it from all his young lacking-wisdom people.

[Laird Popkin]

As a Democrat who grew up in North Carolina, I wouldn't be shocked to see Obama win there. While NC votes for Republicans for federal contests, the state is otherwise generally lead by Democrats, so there's a strong Democratic party for Obama to build on.

[EddienTexas]

McCain is finding out along with the GOP that Obama is a whole lot smarter and better advised than they thought!

Obama will FORCE McCain to face issues instead of rhetoric and smear tactics in all 52 states. The GOP has always had a field day with 527's and this time the Democrat 527's will more than equal the GOP 527's then throw in Obama cash in the ole Campaign BANK and the GOP and MCSAME have a rough row to hoe!

MCSAME won't win!

NO BUSH 3rd term

OBAMA '08

[Clark]

Instead of voting for McCain or Obama, because it's very difficult to know who would be the lesser of two evils, one who would continue the war and the tax breaks to the rich while the other doesn't know what he would do until someone tells him,
VOTE NADER

[Chuck]

The ad scores well in the deception category. It is nowhere close to reflecting what he says on the campaign trail. Furthermore, his proposed policies are nothing new. He is copying Gus Hall's presidential platform.

[keller]

We'll bite "oil field worker".
Is he getting his money from Saudi Arabia? Maybe Al Qaeda? Or maybe the French, who'd like to see pommes frites restored to its American name. Perhaps it's his co-conspirators in one of the many crimes Larry Sinclair had accused him of. You know, the guy carted off to jail yesterday at the close of his own press conference to answer one of several warrants out for his arrest, while his disbarred attorney stood dressed in a kilt, all the better to oxygenate his manhood, so he said.
I'm sure I'm missing a few. In fact, I'm sure if toked a few joints and chased the smoke with shots of Wild Turkey my imagination couldn't go where yours is.
So save me the hangover, please. Where's Obama's money coming from?

[shrdlu]

Last I heard Diebold is still in business so any commentary about win/loss appears to me to be academic.

[OhBrother]

A) His campaign knows something about these GOP redoubts that the rest of us doesn't;

Who wrote this garbage? "Knows something that the rest of us doesn't?" Good grief, that would be "that the rest us don't, as in the rest of us do not know. Major mistakes in grammar as well as a ridiculous article...I thought I'd stumbled onto a rural Kentucky newspaper, not the LA Times.

Thumbs down!

[Chris]

Virginia is definatly up in the air....infact I'm going to say in a month it will be leaning Democrat.

I'm from Northern Virginia...and let me say....we are the absolutly perfect demographic for Obama, and vote heavily democratic.

Its about time our area outweighted the rest of the state...our only state republicans have been ignoring the north forever, and end up sucking as much money as they can to bring it down south.

Can't wait to see it handed to them.

[Joe]

Hey OhBrother,

You forgot to close your quotes after:

"that the rest us don't, as in the rest of us do not know.

-Joe

[Mary]

Barack Obama is scary to me. He comes as a black candidate who can blow away every other white candidate in raising campaign money. Why ? I don't recall this much money being raised by past primary or presidential candidates. He is actually trying to buy his way to be president. I too ask who are all these people who know him only recently, but are giving him all this money. Many of our foreign enemies appear to want him elected. Republicans should investigate where these funds are coming from. ----- Curious

[Everett W.]

A Virginia ad buy (for Northern Virginia, technically a Washington, D.C. ad buy as well) is smart for Obama. The state's a near tossup, leaning Demo if Obama runs with Jim Webb or Tim Kaine.

Haven't a clue why Obama would target Alaska though. His campaign might believe that Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will cut into McCain there.

[Ben]

Numerous articles online have talked about alaska as a possibility for obama. This shouldn't be a surprise to people who follow the political blogs.