Poll of Latino voters puts Barack Obama way ahead

The latest national polling in the presidential race is nothing if not consistent -- most of the recent ones, including an ABC News/Washington Post survey released today, show Barack Obama with a four- percentage-point lead over John McCain among registered voters.

That's not great news for the presumptive Democratic nominee, given all the factors seemingly weighing against the Republican Party (most obviously President Bush's in-the-tank approval ratings). But Obama should be heartened by a new poll that focused solely on Latino voters in 21 states.

The survey, conducted by Pacific Market Research and political scientists at the University of Washington, found Obama's level of support approaching what Democratic presidential candidates -- until the 2004 election -- had come to count on.

Obama swamped McCain in the survey, 60% to 23%, with 16% undecided. The poll's margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Hillary Clinton consistently walloped Obama among Latino voters in the prolonged Democratic primary battle. That caused some in the party to wonder about Obama's ability to attract significant support from this bloc in the general election.

But the new results put him within shouting distance of the 67% of the Latino vote that, according to exit polling, Al Gore won in the 2000 election. And Obama's goal, no doubt, will be to come close to the 72% that Bill Clinton won in his 1996 reelection (or, even better, the 76% that Jimmy Carter won in 1976).

Bush raised GOP hopes that the party was making inroads with Latino voters when he captured 43% of Latino votes four years ago, compared with John Kerry's 56%, according to exit polling. But the new figures indicate that the party has not been able to sustain that support.

More about the new survey, including matchups in specific states, can be read here.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[COL. [retd] A. M.Khajawall MD]

Dear American Voters,

Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics. The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees are as under:

1. Presidential "Temperament and Composer".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.

In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities.

The need of our next movement and generation is a change. The Change in " past Washington and its Leadership". A change we can believe in and not the seductive, deceptive, and confusing slogan of "leader we can believe in" [? Effexor ?".

Our Greatgrand Nation has to address many present and future challenges and start with new clean "Slate and Senator".

God Bless America. its diverse people, and our Greatgrand Nation.

Our Greatgrand Nation is needs the CHANGE at every level and for long time.

I am sure Senator Obama with the help of Senator Clinton and her supporters, can deliver that CHANGE.

Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..

Yours truly,

COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas

PS: Talk about" Presidential Temerament" media, pundits, and politicians do not be quite about it. Our nations future depends upon it.

[Linda]

I'm an American of Mexican decent. After polling my six siblings this past weekend, only 1 is voting for Obama.

[Luis Alvarado]

I can understand how these polls have Obama as a front runner among us. It's been particularly hard for us Latinos with regards to the state of the economy.

Unfortunately, as Latinos we are not in tune with the specifics of the platform that each candidate is presenting to us. We tend to judge our best candidate by what he/she is saying as opposed to what kind of track record they have demonstrated in their political careers.

Obama is saying that he is going to help us.....like, right now. And McCain is saying that he is going to help us but it's going to take a lot of work and time before we feel the relief. Obviously, we choose right now.

For Latinos it's about which candidate can sell their message best. And Obama so far has resonated well. Yet, I personally believe from the bottom of my heart. That as an owner of a micro business who has studied political science in college and has voted for the candidate NOT THE PARTY for the last 25 years, That McCain is the best option for the Latino community. On immigration he has demonstrated his courage by co-writing the immigration reform bill, this at the peril of the back lash of his own party too. Not to seem politically biased, but I do not think Obama knows who we are. He has not related to our intricacies and challenges of our community as McCain has done. And now that some pollsters are telling Obama that he needs us, he is pandering to our vote. If you are reading this, one day you are going to see Obama with Mariachies or wearing the Famous Sombrero.....Then your remember my words.

As a proud Latino from Los Angeles, I'm supporting and voting for McCain.

[Mitchell Aboulafia]

General election polls this far out are of limited value, to say the least. More interesting are the polls that show voter expectations regarding who will win and their enthusiasm for a candidate. Obama does well here. And then there are factors that the polls have yet to address, namely, the way that the Obama organization is going to be changing the game by bringing in new voters. On a list of a (baker's) dozen reasons why Obama will win, #8 and #9.

8. The African-American Vote. Obama will draw the greatest number of African-American voters in American history. It will make a difference. As Poblano’s analysis shows, just a 10% to 20% increase can make a significant difference in who wins in the fall. (Poblano suggests 13 electoral votes for each 10%.) See Josh Kalven’s “Obama Over the Top: How New Voters Could Redraw the Electoral Map” http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top

9. The Youth Vote and Support: Typically the youth vote is viewed as an unreliable voting block. But Obama has shown that he can increase the youth vote. In addition, youth represents ‘boots on the ground.’ They do much of the door to door and office work that campaigns require. On how the youth vote could assist Obama, once again, see Josh Kalven’s “Obama Over the Top: How New Voters Could Redraw the Electoral Map” http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top

"A Dozen Reasons Why Obama will be the Next President: Money-Back Guarantee”
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

[Mr. Music]

This is great news. The media can keep talking about how Clinton beat Obama in some groups - but it's BS. People are too smart to vote for the Republicans again after 8 years of Bush. The Republicans must lose.

[Mary]

not for the minuted for I believe your damn polls. You put them up to make Obama look good. Where is the unbias reporting and integrity of the press we used to have. You are a sham.

[Melvin]

Your state of California has gone to hell. You people have not sense of obligation to your country, no integrity and no honor. You are a left coast state that has gone astray. If the terrorist attach the U.S. again (a very good change) you will be oh, so sorry, then you will be blameing someone for this besides the terrorist. You have absolutely no clue what an honor it is to be an American. I have read blogs and see that America is in real trouble with you people. I do not belive for a minute that if we are attached that you would have the honor of defending your country as you have become too selfish. I am fortunate that I have no children and am a senior citizen so that I can go to a better place one of these days soon and not worry about the country I love so dearly since it has changed from a hard working, ethical, family loving, honorable people to you worthless idiots.

[Intelligent Lady]

Col., I've seen your post on many other blogs. You must not be a Col but someone who supports obama and paste your message in other blogs.

You are full of sh--!!

[Notsurprised]

Im not surprised at this newspaper. It did endorse obama during the feb.5th elections. Any news org. that endorsed a certain candidate will only make that candidate look good. i wont look too much into this poll or read much about politics from this newspaper. but i do read about the local events that happens. not politics. also, they do have a great world section. but politics? nah. too biased.

[Steven]

As a latino voter, I can assure you that not one single member of my family or freinds will be voting Republican. In the past, we have voted less along party lines. However, this time around, after all the Bush scams, we will not be fooled again.

[JTS]

I don't like the result of the poll. Therefore, the LA Times must be biased. bla bla bla

It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow, Repugs. Maybe you better start finding some policies that majorities agree with.

[Tom in California]

Read the handwriting on the wall: McCain is going down to ignominious defeat.

[April]

Obama will say and do anything to be elected! He's a liar, a fraud and is DANGEROUS. People who think he's so wonderful need to do their homework -- he has NO EXPERIENCE in running ANYTHING, much less the COUNTRY! Get real -- we all want "change" -- just not the kind he's offering. As much as I detest McCain, he's getting my vote. Remember, whoever's elected president will likely be able to appoint 2-3 justices to the Supreme Court. I don't want an ULTRA LIBERAL Supreme Court!

[erin00]

McCain is a panderer. In his interview with La Opinion (in today's edition) he announces that he never abandoned "comprehensive immigration reform." Didn't he contritely tell the Republican base during the primary that it was huge mistake and that he would not vote for the bill he authored if it came up again? Now, he says he will be working on it again the first day of his presidency.

The Republicans are experts at running two separate campaigns: one in English and one in Spanish. The messages are not the same and are sometimes down right contradictory. Bush got away with this sort of forked tongued messaging. McCain will not.

[di]

Of course most Latinos will vote for Obama. Not just because of immigration, but because they care about ending the war and improving the economy. McCain does not inspire confidence in the latter two categories.

As for immigration, what a tangled web. McCain made a valiant effort to stand up to the "hateful" wing of his party, but when it looked it that kind of valor would cost him the primary, he quickly bailed out on that, ... Latinos, even those who don't care a lick about immigration policy care a lot about "hate" towards immigrants. McCain failed the test, ... it is too late now to come crawling back!

There are some Latinos (no doubt) who will never vote for Obama either because he is black or because they are loyal Republicans -- those two categories of Latinos overlap tremendously. I say McCain get's 25%-30% of the vote, maximum.

[J Lee P]

April. Have you lost your mind? When you add up all the years of "experience" that was SO important in PROTECTING AMERICANS, tally up the years since Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rice, Wolfowitz, Libby, Rove, McCain, Bush (well, he really doesn't count cuz he never had any experience to start with) and all the people who pushed the US invasion of Iraq and you probably have a couple hundred years of so0called "EXPERIENCE". And just WHAT did all that all-important "experience" get us???? LOOK AROUND at the economy, the mess in Iraq and Afghanistan, our loss of credibility in the entire world, the loss of the perception that the USA is a power not to be messed with, our moral authoriity in just about everything, and this is only the top of the list of things Bush/Cheney/McCain have cost all of us. Come to your senses. Barack Obama is the right person for the time. He's white - and he's black - and maybe that is fate giving us a way to ease America into once and for all ending the racial ugliness we've been through. We can finally be seen as a country that acts like a TRUE democracy. We need to start walking the walk and stop only mouthing the words 'DEMOCRACY FOR ALL". How you could possibly vote to continue going down the same road of the last eight years is beyond belief. There is no time left to undo and repair the damage to all of us if we do not start with THIS ELECTION. No more Republican craziness. We need a new and bold change to kick start this country after being scared into submission by the creeps in the Bush administration for the last eight years. We need to remember how great this country really is and start doing the things we do best. And that means putting the power back into the hands of us people who make the wheels of this country turn every day.

[Wilford Brimley III]

Abortion is a sin! Please Sen. McCain...make it illegal. Women don't know what's best for their bodies! I pray to God that the honorable John MacCain will kill ALL the nations that disagree with the U.S.A. We are the greatest country in the history of the world! WE know what's best for everybody else! Stay strong McCain! Don't let those terrorists bully you! Just kill their whole damn family! GOD BLESS AMERICA!

[NinaK]

Abortion is a sin! Please Sen. McCain...make it illegal. Women don't know what's best for their bodies! I pray to God that the honorable John MacCain will kill ALL the nations that disagree with the U.S.A. We are the greatest country in the history of the world! WE know what's best for everybody else! Stay strong McCain! Don't let those terrorists bully you! Just kill their whole damn family! GOD BLESS AMERICA!

Posted by: Wilford Brimley III | June 19, 2008 at 12:30 PM
---------------------------------------------------------
Wilford, is this supposed to be a bad joke?? You are talking craziness, is Hitler your grandfather??? Please give some thought to your posts before entering them.

[NinaK]

Abortion is a sin! Please Sen. McCain...make it illegal. Women don't know what's best for their bodies! I pray to God that the honorable John MacCain will kill ALL the nations that disagree with the U.S.A. We are the greatest country in the history of the world! WE know what's best for everybody else! Stay strong McCain! Don't let those terrorists bully you! Just kill their whole damn family! GOD BLESS AMERICA!

Posted by: Wilford Brimley III | June 19, 2008 at 12:30 PM
---------------------------------------------------------
Wilford, is this supposed to be a bad joke?? You are talking craziness, is Hitler your grandfather??? Please give some thought to your posts before entering them.

[AJM in The OC]

The Latino vote will depend largely upon the candidates' position on IMMIGRATION REFORM, particularly providing a pathway for undocumented persons to become U.S. citizens. Thusfar, only Obama favors this path. McCain used to, but in an attempt to appeal to the Republican conservative base, he has since flip-flopped on the issue and now says controlling the borders and building a border fence is the priority. If the Republicans chose to use this as a "wedge issue" during the presidential campaign, they did not learn the lesson that occurred in California during the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 campaign. Any "immigrant bashing" will only serve to energize Latinos to register and vote Democratic in even large numbers. The California Republican Party has never recovered from their Prop. 187 stance.

[philipe]

mary is right. You are liars and spin doctors. the media has told lies and half truths for BHO from the beginning. Your polls are fixed.