New polls -- one national, one from Ohio -- have glad tidings for Obama
With the Democratic presidential race finally settled, there's been a "modest bump" for Barack Obama in the Gallup organization's continual nationwide survey of voter preferences.
Today's report showed Obama leading John McCain by 6 percentage points, 48% to 42%.
The pollsters write that Obama "has consistently held a lead of 5 to 7 percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date" in the daily tracking poll.
Obama's forces no doubt are heartened by that; McCain's strategists will be heartened if the margin stays roughly at that level over the next few days and doesn't escalate to double digits.
Both campaigns, though, appreciate that in our electoral college system the national figures, which are indicative of a general trend, aren't nearly as useful to them as readings from certain key states, such as those from the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, which released some new results today.
The survey questioned more than 1,300 state residents -- a large sample group -- from mid-May through early June. It eschewed candidate matchups, focusing instead on two other matters: attitudes toward President Bush and the state's governor, Democrat Ted Strickland (assumed to be on Obama's starter list of veep prospects).
The findings on Bush delineate the challenging environment for McCain in Ohio, currently considered an absolute must-win for him in his White House quest. The president's favorable/unfavorable rating in the state is slightly better than it was a month ago, but it still represents a stiff wind McCain must overcome.
In an April survey, 74% of Ohioans disapproved ...
... of Bush's job performance, with 25% approving -- a whopping 49-percentage-point gap. The current numbers are 68% disapproval, 29% approval -- a still daunting 39-point margin for the Republican seeking to replace him.
Strickland, a former congressman who rode GOP disarray into the governorship in 2006, posted strong overall job performance ratings: 61% of his constituents said they approved of how he's done, 25% said they did not.
But an additional finding -- on his handling of the economy -- could undercut Strickland's running-mate potential. His approval figure dropped to 51% on this issue, while his disapproval number rose to 38%.
Peruse the entire poll here.
On the subject of Ohio, also worth reading is this look by The Times' Peter Wallsten at discontent within the state's Republican ranks over McCain's organizational efforts -- or more precisely, the lack thereof.
-- Don Frederick
Bah humbug. Hillary Clinton won in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana and Nevada, but when ONE Minnesota caucus victory for Barack Obama is added in, Obama gains more overall delegates.
This is just such a joke, and certainly does "Fair Reflection" an injustice that will not be soon forgotten. Expect a backlash at some point.
http://www.Fair-Reflection.com
http://www.CaucusCheating.com
http://www.Florida-Michigan.com
http://www.Hillary-Wins.com
Posted by: Alessandro Machi | June 09, 2008 at 05:03 PM
A 6% point "bump" as stated is, in actuality not a good sign for Obama. He should have received at least a 10 to 15% point bump from Hillary supporters, IF they had transferred their votes to him. This only proves that only a modest amount of Hillary supporters are voting for Obama come November.
Most of them have stated they would vote McCain, but in reality are just biding time to make up their minds between sitting out their votes or actually voting for him. The polls don't reflect this. If they see Obama leading into November, they may transfer their votes to McCain, but if it's the other way around, they may decide to just sit it out.
Posted by: BJ | June 09, 2008 at 05:33 PM
Mccain is a fractious man on the wrong side of history and human events. He and his party will be relegated to oblivion in November. It is presumptuous to elevate Mccain as the competitor to Obama and dangle the losing proposition as an alternative for America. In the coming election majority of Americans are going to vote based on their deteriorating economic conditions, the sinister present from the Republicans to America. Obama will be the president and Democratic Party will win both houses of the Congress in a landslide victory.
Posted by: Nat. | June 09, 2008 at 05:37 PM
On a list of a (baker's) dozen reasons why Obama will win, # 10
10. A Motivated Democratic Party: Yes, there is the issue of whether most of Hillary’s supporters will come around. And there are unknowns in terms of whether Obama will be able to bring more working class folks into his corner. But the Democrats are hungry and they have resources. There will be some synergy between Presidential, Congressional, and local races.
"A Dozen Reasons Why Obama will be the Next President:Money-Back Guarantee"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/page/2/
Posted by: Mitchell Aboulafia | June 09, 2008 at 11:42 PM
McCain has to deal with the fact that people are figuring out that he's flip-flopped on almost every single issue since running for president.
He's remarkably weak in his home state right now (though he'll still probably carry it) for reasons like that.
It doesn't help that he did nothing to stop his fellow Republicans from protecting the oil companies' profits. I don't think we can afford 'leadership' like his and I've voted for McCain for the past decade.
Posted by: Joe | June 10, 2008 at 03:57 PM
Cottage cheese on lime-green jello married to the human icicle. It's hard to take McCain seriously about anything.
Posted by: Ericmiami | June 10, 2008 at 04:34 PM