John McCain as seer -- he predicts the trajectory of the '08 race

The national polls taking the temperature of the presidential race will ebb and flow (much as they have during the last week). The two candidates will be on their game and off. Attention will be lavished on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado and the other states deemed critical to the contest's outcome.

It all matters for naught. John McCain peered down the road Friday while speaking to reporters, including The Times' Bob Drogin, at an auto plant in Lordstown, Ohio, and laid out the following scenario:

"I’m the underdog in this race. ... I’m behind. I’ve got to catch up and get ahead. And I expect to do that about 48 hours before the general election."

That view is totally in character for McCain. As The Ticket noted earlier this week, the former fighter pilot "is right where he wants to be, behind his opponent. You can't shoot someone down from in front."

Indeed, McCain's embrace of the underdog role was the topic of one of the video chats that Matt Welch, author of "McCain: Myth of a Maverick," recently had with The Ticket's Andrew Malcolm (see below).

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[VJ Machiavelli]

McCain is right, it will be the voters who make up their minds in the very last hours of the campaign that will decide the race. Or those voters have already know who they are voting for but are telling the pollsters that they are "STILL UNDECIDED" That could be a very, very big problem for Obama and his media and pollster friends. Maybe a Dewey (Obama) vs Truman (McCain) headline or polling error like NH this year ??

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
ps In the end it's NOT THE POLLS, STUPID.

[Wm Tate]

" I’ve got to catch up and get ahead. And I expect to do that about 48 hours before the general election."

McCain is facing long-shot odds against him pulling the election out in the last few days.

In the last open presidential election, in 2000, Democrat operatives got their friends in the press to publicize a decades-old George Bush DUI. The "story" dominated coverage the weekend before the election and caused an estimated 3 million evangelical voters to stay home, costing Mr. Bush the popular vote and almost the election.

In 1992, the announcement on the Friday before the election of indictments against Caspar Weinberger, and the hyperbolic media coverage, blunted momentum for George H.W. Bush and allowed Bill Clinton to gain a plurality of votes and win the election.

Only someone with the nerves of a fighter pilot could have confidence of overcoming whatever this year's October Suprise will be.

-Wm Tate,
http://www.atimelikethis.us/

[08vote]

The Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" is a misnomer for it's REAL name and agenda, "Anti-Obama" blogger's corner....

The Nov election will be "close" but personal predicitions says Obama WINS by at least 9 percent points or 2/3rds of the electoral map....John McCain is a good and just man, he's just on the WRONG side of the many of the issues (not character). Bush robbed McCain in 2000 like Bush robbed Gore (sort of...), so let's get our blaming right.

[dave]

what's all the underdog buffoonery about? what's mccain up to? clearly he neither can be, nor does he really want to be president - so obviously he was recruited to distract from the serious contenders, like candidate for PRESIDENT, RON PAUL.

[Franklin Hearst]

You write: 'The former fighter pilot "is right where he wants to be, behind his opponent. You can't shoot someone down from in front."'

Right. That is just exceptional analysis. McCain really does want to be behind. If he were ahead, Obama might blast him out of the sky. But from behind, he can sneak up on Obama and win the election before Obama even notices that McCain is running.

Given that McCain is behind, it is going to be difficult for Obama to catch up. If McCain falls further behind, Obama might as well give up.

It takes a brilliant pundit to understand that an election is essentially the same as a dogfight between jets. Congratulations.

[Keith]

"As The Ticket noted earlier this week, the former fighter pilot "is right where he wants to be, behind his opponent. You can't shoot someone down from in front.""

Interesting analogy, but incorrect. In aerial combat, the position of being on your opponents "6 o'clock" is the position of advantage. This election is more like a horse race where being #2 coming out of the last turn, you better hope the other guy makes a mistake, or you've got something unexpected saved up. Right now I'd say Obama's got McCain by more than a few lengths. He's nowhere near Obama's "six", BHO is in the saddle on McCain's.