A Barack Obama blowout scenario, boldly etched by a pundit

Among political analysts, the early story line for the Barack Obama-John McCain general election face-off has been set: Despite strong Democratic winds that the party should ride to significant gains in Congress, the presidential race -- like those in 2000 and '04 -- will be close.

Renowned sage Charlie Cook captured the prevailing view in a recent National Journal column, writing: "Considering how bleak Republicans' down-ballot prospects look, it is remarkable that they appear to have a 50-50 shot at holding on to the presidency."

But one prognosticator, Bob Beckel, begs to differ. Strongly. Indeed, Beckel is carving out a niche for himself as the leading cheerleader for a sweeping Obama victory.

Writing for RealClearPolitics.com a few weeks ago, he envisioned a scenario in which McCain "will lose by at least 50 electoral votes in November -- and possibly as many as 150."

He then walked through a list of swing states, touting Obama advantages in virtually every one.

Today, in a column on the same website, Beckel details what he sees as striking parallels between Obama's positioning in this year's campaign and that for Ronald Reagan ...

... in 1980. In that year's campaign, what looked to be a tight contest broke decisively at the end for the Republican and against the incumbent Democratic president, Jimmy Carter.

Given his prime pedigree in politics, it must be conceded that Beckel's forecasting is unlikely to make Republicans quake (or cause Democrats to start planning inauguration parties).

As is noted at the end of his columns, he managed Democrat Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. That would be the one in which Reagan, running for reelection, carried 49 states and won almost 59% of the popular vote.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[Wm Tate]

Is this the same Bob Beckel who showed his political acumen by managing Walter Mondale's campaign into losses in every state but Minnesota--Mondale's home turf--and the District of Columbia?
-Wm Tate,
http://www.atimelikethis.us/

[SpankenStein]

lets hope so, because republicans suck.

except for Ron Paul who would make an excellent veep for Obama.

[denmister]

I think that Regan actually won Minn. but didn't want a recount

[dickginnold]

As the campaign goes on, McCain's tired and stressed persona is less and less likely to respond to makeup, Botox and artificial stimulants. Also there is no stimulant that can replace lost brain cells. Example: His headline for the day--Obama will be bad for business. Oh, yeah, in the midst of our worst recession in 30 plus years and a time when the US dollar has lost over 60 percent of its value, caused by the tired and divisive Republican ideas McCain and Bush have been pushing. Also, look at McCains own state, where vigilante activities against the poor, downtrodden and anyone not lilywhite are endorsed by the majority. A redneck state where unions and civil rights have been put down for 50 years. As soon as McCains full ideas and political record are known, most Americans will reject him.

[Martin A]

Mr Tate. If you read the article, you would not have to ask who Bectel is. Did the author waste his time explaining or are you just trying to push your point of view?

[amy]

How can Obama be Reagan when he cannot win Reagan democrats? laughable. Say all you want to "believe in" -- that is Obama supporters' only way to talking now: we believe. Obama will lose for sure

[Michael]

The Republicans could run a chimpanzee and it would get an automatic 45% of the vote and Fox News would claim it was more qualified than the Democratic candidate. After all, this is the country that elected GW Bush to a *second* term. Obama should be blowing McCain out of the water right now, but McCain is close. Imagine if he ever gets his act together.

[John]

Question is will the electorate take the time to pay attention. The Obama campaign has 5 months to educate. Amongst informed voters, this election will be a blowout. Some Republicans who realize how important this election is will refuse the Hannity/Limbaugh slime and realize they need to rebuild the moderate wing of the Republican party and present something other than name calling, rumor-mongering and what George Bush has stood for. They understand they will be blown out, but they will shake off the extremists, who are Hell bent on destroying this great country and be back in four years. If Obama does what we hope he will do they won't mind waiting 8 years, if he doesn't they will be there. The right wing is the worst trash this country has seen in a long time, the left wing isn't much better. Both want to take away the most important thing we Americans hold dear - Freedom. I believe that Americans will wake up over the next 5 months and Obama will win in a blowout. If he does what he says he will face token opposition in 4 years.

[Mandelay]

Yes, he's the same Beckel of Mondale fame. But the Obama campaign works this way: say it often enough and people believe it.

[Curtis Johnson]

Putting aside Political etiquette for moment, let me speak from the gut, this years election reminds me a lot of the first Liston-Clay or Ali fight, all the pugilistic pundits said the kid from Louisville must be nuts!!! Sonny Liston will put to sleep early!!! He'll break the kid in two, it will be a slaughter poor Cassius alias we knew him well. Well John McCain is going find out for himself the meaning of "float like a butterfly and sting like a bee, your hands can't hit what your eyes can’t see. You see John McCain is a bully, a puncher and like most bullies not a good catcher. Like Ali's lightning fast hands Barack’s lightning fast keen mind will hit McCain with intellect, knowledge and facts from which his aging and slow reacting brain won't be able to react to our handle, and he will blow his cool and come straight at Obama looking from the early knockout but will only run into a well trained and prepared political warrior such as the like he has never seen, The problems with vets is that they somehow convince themselves that they, and they alone know the meaning of warrior. Ali was as welterweight when first learned to box but from within the light little body the heavyweight champion lay dormant only waiting to be sprang on the unsuspecting Liston, this is what John McCain is about to find out.

Curtis

[Roger]

How did it go for the last candidate who ran on a promise to raise taxes?

( :-) )

[Gaias Child]

I'm guessing a landslide because this liberal democrat is really fiscally conservative and competent, bipartisan, biracial, multicultural, and can honor the gifts and strengths of men and women, can envision honest government, inclusive government, respectful to resources and all people, and on top of all that, he's friendly and engaging and luminous and people just like having him around. My guess is that as the general election campaign goes on and more people get to know him, it's going to a very strong mandate. But not for the individual as much as the message and the opportunity of a new way to govern. With integrity and heart.

[Joe]

McCain should beat Obama by at least 5%. Republican's are a silent majority. We don't speak until it's time to vote, then we speak. The media doesn't measure those of us who remain silent until voting day.

[Kenneth]

Obama has about as much chance of winning as Bob Beckel. Bob fails to take into consideration that blue collar whites, The Jewish vote and the conservative faithful aren't colorblind. The polls can say what they say but the truth will expose the results come november, Roco-Bama is going down hard. Bob wants to give it one for gipper before the last vote is counted. NO one wants 4 more years of Jimmy Carter.

[Voting for McCain]

This is one-half of Dick Morris' prediction. Morris has been saying for weeks that the November election is not going to be close. He openly admits, however, that he has no idea yet who is going to win. He just knows it ain't going to be close.

I just do not see how Obama is going to win in a landslide of electoral votes. I can see a scenario where John McCain wins big, and I can see how Obama could win a close election. But, the possibility of Obama winning along the lines that Beckel is predicting seems impossible.

[Lu]

I would vote Hilary. Choosing between McCain and Obama, I rather go for McCain.

[Jon]

Michael - You make an excellent point,

Amy - You're sadly misinformed,

[Jon Iscream]

One this is certain. This race will not be close. Either the American people will decide to give up more freedom and quality of life and to begin WW III or they will decide that they don't want those things. They either hate the USA or they don't. It is a simple choice to make. People don't need to think that a gangsta has any chance of winning, anything, ever!

[An American]

Ronald Reagan hid his intellectual deficiencies behind one liners just as John McCain does it seems to be the strategy of the right when their narrow self centered black and white answers do not fit the question. When will the right learn that predicating an election on simply the tax issue is the thing that got us into trouble in the first place?

An American

[Gordito Mojito]

Obama is a Marxist. His passion resides in redistributing your labor which is anathema to incentive and your economic prosperity.

Obama is articulate in expressing what people WANT to hear but practices a much different hard left stance. Sting like a bee indeed if given the opportunity.

Thus far, he has been protected by the media when he refers to the 57 states, Sioux City, ND, or selling out his white grandmother.

To me, the bullies in this ring are those who continue to cast stones against the current leader without justification or alternative solutions.

High gas... must be republican oil companies not protectionist politicians. Healthcare... republican health care execs... not personal responsibility and eventual rationing of services. Global Warming... gas guzzlers... not un-proven science like solar bursts which peaked in 2001. Iraq... republican oil grubbers... not stopping Saddam Hussein from murdering another Million people or harboring terrorists.

This country is divided because the people in power. Both sides of the aisle, are acting upon self-interest rather than your interests.

Voting for the man who promises to increase this through "bi-partisanship" (Obama) IS THE PROBLEM AN EVEN MORE OF THE SAME....not the solution.

Careful what you wish for. Equality at the Expense of Liberty is Communism... and you're about to lose the liberty to vote with your hard-earned dollars and the opportunities they offer you and your family if Obama succeeds.

[Shon]

As someone living outside of the United States (The Bahamas) I have to say that the political race in America is of great interest to the rest of the world. Not only is change--real, fundamental change--needed in America, but in many other parts of the world. There is a sense that there is a new Day upon us, that indeed the youth of today are fundamentally different from those who were the youth of the 60s and 70s. Depsite the social problems reflected in today's youth (those, say 35 and younger), one cannot help but notice that today's youth have a greater level of accpetance of racial and ethnic differences and a willingness to imagine "out of the box" scenarious. I happen to believe that Barrack Obama will win in November and that his election will be historic. I also happen to believe that Barrack is uniquely suited to bring about the kind of changes he tauts. Some of his talk might be rhetoric, but I believe that he would not have gotten this far were it not for a sincere and deep longing to bring about real change in the Unites States. The rest of the world is hoping America makes the right decision this time around.

[Josh]

Reading the comments really fleshes out the folks who have been drinking the Fox News, Republican cool aid. Case in point, Jon Iscream's pathetic comments.

[COL. [retd] A. M.Khajawall MD]

Dear American Voters,

Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics. The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees are as under:

1. Presidential "Temperament and Composer".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.

In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities.

The need of our next movement and generation is a change. The Change in " past Washington and its Leadership". A change we can believe in and not the seductive, deceptive, and confusing slogan of "leader we can believe in" [? Effexor ?".

Our Greatgrand Nation has to address many present and future challenges and start with new clean "Slate and Senator".

God Bless America. its diverse people, and our Greatgrand Nation.

Our Greatgrand Nation is needs the CHANGE at every level and for long time.

I am sure Senator Obama with the help of Senator Clinton and her supporters, can deliver that CHANGE.

Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..

Yours truly,

COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas

[Mary]

Beckel, it ain't gonna happen, no darn way!!!!

All you Clinton supporters and others who say they will stay home in Nov,------------A NO VOTE IS A VOTE FOR OBAMA in my thinking. Who would you prefer making decisions if the U.S. were again attached by terrorist: Obama or McCain? There is only one choice: MCCAIN, SO GIVE HIM YOUR VOTE. You conservative Republicans, Clinton voters, Jewish voters: much is on the line in this election. Vote McCain....===============

[willie b free]

Obama, who the fark is Obama?
The one who say's we'll tax the oil companies, then they tax us. Or the Obama who say's I make 100K per year, i should pay more captl. gains taxes so the fat, lazy and POS's who won't work can still smoke dope, drop 5 kids and continue the downward spiral of a once great nation? Hello America, you are now a socialistic country and the end is near for the end of the way most of us thought it would be........

[Mike-KY]

I just hope the American people vote based on the candidate they believe can best fix the problems that we are facing (war, bad economy, gas prices, health care, school systems,etc..). In one of the most important presidential election in years, so many are focused on gender, race, age and even party affiliations this is pretty sad to me. There is just to must going on in America to focus on such petty issues. Vote for the person who you think is going to pull America out of this tail spin.

[Stan G]

America needs:
a) 4,000 more of our sons dying on a desert 5,000 miles from home in hopes of bringing Freedom to people who would rather kill Americans than help Americans free themselves ... to a life they've never known.
b) to ship more jobs overseas so China, India, Maylasia, Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan can have full employment and those of us still gainfully employed can buy poisoned products at low, low prices.
c) higher gas prices so Exxon-Mobile can rake in billions of dollars. How else can their CEO retire with a billion dollar Platinum Parachute? How else can the Arab Emirates of the Kingdom of Dubai transform themselves from camel herders to the most modern and ostentatios destination on the planet? How else can they hire lobbyists whose largesse keeps the GOP in office.
d) our BOOMING economy to continue moving along the same path path that makes the very rich even richer and the poor very much poorer.

For more of the same, please Vote for McCain

[scooter]

It's too late folks. The person who wins will lose. There is no way the next President is going to "turn the country around" in 4 years. Whichever party is in the White House is going to take the blame for the debacle that the next 4 years will bring. Obama is not going to bring your house back to you or bring oil prices down or "unify" the Red and the Blue. Remember Jimmy Carter? The Washington outsider? Going to clean up Washington after Watergate? And McCain is worse-- he has real power and knows how to work the system--and continue along Bush's path to disaster. Sadly, we have nominated the 2 candidates best suited for a reality TV show-they are entertaining and play their parts well. But run the country? More like run down the country. I don't want either of them.

[LEPhil]

This has been interesting for me to read - I am not sure if there will be a blow-out

I am an Obama supporter for three reasons
1) I believe we need another approach to Iraq and the middle east - I do not agree with the Terrorists and I do believe we must protect ourselves. I respect the armed forces and their willingness to sacrifice on our behalf but I also believed they are being misused in Iraq and not properly supported in Afghanistan. Our current president led us into a war he wanted to have whether you believe he knew the spies were wrong or just added to it - It has hurt us as Americans in our reputation around the world - We always at least pretended to be the good guys now for years we have occupied 2 other countries - in both cases choosing leadership that fit our image of what those countries needed - I agree they are better than what they had but I also know there are other countries with bad people in charge we do not attack so the rationale is not consistent
2) I believe we need some new practices within the US that care for the poorest and the neediest - with conditions attached such as work and effort - the gap between the rich and the poor in the US is growing - the Republicans have convinced many people that if taxes continue to be lower they will be better off -with their $ 250 tax rebate so that the rich can get their 250000 rebate. Meanwhile the roads can not be repaired and the quality of education in the US drops - I am not sure that Obama can solve these problems but I think he will try some new approaches,
3) I believe we need open and reflective policies in teh US government and the current government has promoted secrecy and divisiveness at every level.

These said I believe both of them are men of honor - I do not believe the McCain is evil but I do believe he has shifted his personal positions on torture and taxes in order to cater to the republican party

I believe both of these men

[Glenn Greenwald]

Obama will stick it to the Zionists and end the war and bring tolerance for ISLAM.