Pennsylvania poll offers good news for Democrats

Democrats worried about Barack Obama's primary losses to Hillary Clinton in key states might find some solace from a poll of Pennsylvania voters released earlier this week.

Yes, the survey by the Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Clinton the stronger November contender against John McCain in the state; she led the presumptive Republican presidential nominee by 11 percentage points, 49% to 38%.

But Obama was up by 7 points, 46% to 39%, a margin just outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The pollsters, in writing about their findings, noted that compared with Clinton, Obama had problems in Pennsylvania's southwest corner -- an area "where Democrats are more culturally conservative on social issues like gun control, abortion and gay marriage and have voting patterns similar to so-called 'Reagan Democrats.' "

That's John Murtha country, home turf of the legendary House member who worked hard for Clinton in the April 22 primary. So with Obama presumably on the path to his party's nomination, one of his challenges will be to bring Murtha fully on board.

Given Obama's front-runner status -- the New York Times has a telling piece today on the "subdued" nature surrounding Clinton's campaign appearances of late -- attention is shifting wholesale to the shape of the Electoral College map ...

... in an Obama-McCain matchup. Indeed, an in-depth look popped up Friday on Salon.com, penned by veteran Democratic pollster Paul Maslin.

Maslin examines each of the 17 states where, in his view, "this fall's outcome is not a mortal lock." He also writes: "I mostly ignored the polls -- come on, it's May. Instead, I looked at long-term voting trends and demographics."

The result is a must read for political junkies in both parties.

-- Don Frederick

 

Comments

[NinaK]

Senator Obama now has 1,905 delegates in comparison to Hilliary's 1,719. He is ahead by 189 delegates and away from the 2025 mark by 120. Hilliary is 307 delegates away from the 2025 mark.

[Karegi]

The slick way the Obama is trying to prematurely pose as the candidate recalls the behavior of George Bush when the votes in Florida were pending in 2000.

[J.Young]

RE: The slick way the Obama is trying to prematurely pose as the candidate recalls the behavior of George Bush when the votes in Florida were pending in 2000.
Posted by: Karegi | May 17, 2008 at 03:47 PM

Remember, first of all, Obama is behaving like the presumptive nominee because he is the presumptive nominee. Secondly, Hillary Clinton has also recomposed herself; she isn't spending any time making anything but positive comments about Obama. She is behaving like she has lost the candidacy and doesn't want to detract from Obama's ability to win in November. Third, president Bush and John McCain are treating Obama like the presumptive candidate (again, because he is the presumptive candidate), in that they have began attacking him, and disregarding Hillary.

Now, more importantly, the allegory pointing to similarities between Bush and Obama's behavioral tactics after becoming the presumptive winner is silly, and purely rhetorical. This is the way presumptive candidates need to act: it is the way Al Gore acted in 2000, and, in so far as I can tell, is the way every presumptive nominee has ever behaved. A good example is McCain acting like the Republican nominee, though it hasn't been declared formally by the Republican Party. McCain still has a competitor too, Ron Paul, who isn't running around criticizing him. All of this is because the winners and losers of gubernatorial contests are expected to behave in certain ways, and deviation from this behavior would be considered divisive.

[gaypastor]

Let's face it everyone. The DNC doesn't care about the rampant sexism that has pervaded Hillary's campaign for months and they are going to lose MILLIONS of us. Like it or not, more busy Americans took time out of their busy schedules to go to voting booth and pull a level with Hillary's name on in.