Opinion: Pennsylvania poll offers good news for Democrats

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Democrats worried about Barack Obama’s primary losses to Hillary Clinton in key states might find some solace from a poll of Pennsylvania voters released earlier this week.

Yes, the survey by the Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Clinton the stronger November contender against John McCain in the state; she led the presumptive Republican presidential nominee by 11 percentage points, 49% to 38%.

But Obama was up by 7 points, 46% to 39%, a margin just outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The pollsters, in writing about their findings, noted that compared with Clinton, Obama had problems in Pennsylvania’s southwest corner -- an area ‘where Democrats are more culturally conservative on social issues like gun control, abortion and gay marriage and have voting patterns similar to so-called ‘Reagan Democrats.’ ‘

That’s John Murtha country, home turf of the legendary House member who worked hard for Clinton in the April 22 primary. So with Obama presumably on the path to his party’s nomination, one of his challenges will be to bring Murtha fully on board.

Given Obama’s front-runner status -- the New York Times has a telling piece today on the ‘subdued’ nature surrounding Clinton’s campaign appearances of late -- attention is shifting wholesale to the shape of the Electoral College map ...

... in an Obama-McCain matchup. Indeed, an in-depth look popped up Friday on Salon.com, penned by veteran Democratic pollster Paul Maslin.

Maslin examines each of the 17 states where, in his view, ‘this fall’s outcome is not a mortal lock.’ He also writes: ‘I mostly ignored the polls -- come on, it’s May. Instead, I looked at long-term voting trends and demographics.’

The result is a must read for political junkies in both parties.

-- Don Frederick