Hillary Clinton's camp touts new poll findings

A just-released "memo" from Hillary Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes -- ostensibly directed at Democratic superdelegates, but also meant for a broader audience (like us) -- succinctly and effectively rolls out the spate of new poll data that bolsters her case that she, rather than Barack Obama, offers Democrats their best chance in the looming matchup with John McCain.

Here are the key details from the release:

"HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday.  A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).

"SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.

"CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42).  The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama’s negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been."

As tracked by Time magazine's Page blog, some superdelegates just aren't getting the message, however.

Also, the polling results that most immediately will count in the Democratic battle will be what happens at the polling places in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday (for the latest trends, see here and here).

-- Don Frederick

 

Comments

[joel]

So predictable. I'd love to see a chart that breaks down campaign responses to polls. Amazingly the polls are generally flawed or incorrect when the data doesn't support the candidate or an obvious reason why everyone should jump on board when it does support the candidate. It's such stupid politics and completely irrelevant. However, it does suggest what the campaigns think about the intellectual capabilities of the targets of their memos...not much.

[dee]

GO HILLARY! THANKS REV. WRIGHT.

[TRENIA KAY KASUNICK]

PLEASE DO NOT FORCE ME TO VOTE FOR MCCAINE I WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA PLEASE TELL THE SUPER DELLIGATES THAT THEY SHOULD HERE WHAT THE VOTER WANTS AND THAT IS HILLARY . SHE CAN TURN THIS COUNTRY AROUND AND IMY 401K CAB GAIN BACK WHAT IT HAS LOST IN THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

[Debbie , in El Paso, Texas]

...I think that those States that voted for Obama early in the election year...lacked the information to make an informed vote...they voted on a dream and a hope for a better tomorrow...
The problem:...they did not know the "true" Obama...until info. came out about his wife, his Reverend, and Obama's own racist comments about people in small towns "clinging to their guns and religion" and "G D America"...How stupid does Obama think the American people are to believe that he had no idea whatsoever about Rev Wright. after 20 years....C'MON!!!!

Now, people have more info. about Obama and his crew of racists loonies. This is why Hillary would win against McCain. Many who voted Obama are experiencing "buyers remorse". Additionally, I believe that Hillary would draw disenfranchised Republicans to the Democratic Fray.

Lastly, being Hispanic myself...I think it is very naive for the Democratic Party to assume that Hispanics will rally for Obama...I think NOT...I think that Hispanics would vote for McCain...that is if Hillary is not the Dem. nominee. I believe that if Obama wins the Dem. nomination (to appease the Black voters)...I am extremely confident that he will absolutely lose the presidency and McCain will win. The Democratic party will win the battle (and appease the Black voters), but will lose the war (and implode). What the Democratic Party lacks the most is...strategy....

[Kuilor2k]

So you want to vet the candidate. Ok, let's vet the candidate.

1.) Selma Got Me Born - Lie, you were born in 1961 - Selma had no effect on your birth, as Selma was in 1965.
2.) Father Was A Goat Herder - Lie, he was a privileged, well educated youth, who went on to work with the Kenyan Government.
3.) Father Was A Proud Freedom Fighter - Lie, he was part of one of the most corrupt and violent governments Kenya has ever had
4.) My Family Has Strong Ties To African Freedom - Lie, your cousin Raila Odinga has created mass violence in attempting to overturn a legitimate election in 2007, in Kenya. It is the first widespread violence in many years.
5.) My Name is African Swahili - Lie, your name is Arabic and ‘Baraka’ (from which Barack came) means ‘blessed’ in that language. Hussein is also Arabic and so is Obama.
6.) I Never Practiced Islam - Lie, you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years, until your wife made you change, so you could run for office.
7.) My School In Indonesia Was Christian - Lie, you were registered as Muslim there and got in trouble in Koranic Studies for making faces (check your own book).
8.) I Was Fluent In Indonesian - Lie, not one teacher says you could speak the language.
9.) Because I Lived In Indonesia, I Have More Foreign Experience - Lie, you were there from the ages of 6 to 10, and couldn’t even speak the language. What did you learn, how to study the Koran and watch cartoons.
10.) I Blame My Early Drug Use On Ethnic Confusion - Lie, you were quite content in high school to be Barry Obama, no mention of Kenya and no mention of struggle to identify - your classmates said you were just fine.
11.) An Ebony Article Moved Me To Run For Office - Lie, Ebony has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn’t, and never did, exist.
12.) A Life Magazine Article Changed My Outlook On Life - Lie, Life has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn’t, and never did, exist.
13.) I Won’t Run On A National Ticket In ‘08 - Lie, here you are, despite saying, live on TV, that you would not have enough experience by then, and you are all about having experience first.
14.) Present Votes Are Common In Illinois - Lie, they are common for YOU, but not many others have 130 PRESENT VOTES.
15.) Oops, I Misvoted - Lie, only when caught by church groups and democrats, did you beg to change your misvote.
16.) I Was A Professor Of Law - Lie, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
17.) I Was A Constitutional Lawyer - Lie, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
18.) Without Me, There Would Be No Ethics Bill - Lie, you didn’t write it,introduce it, change it, or create it.
19.) The Ethics Bill Was Hard To Pass - Lie, it took just 14 days from start to finish.
20.) I Wrote A Tough Nuclear Bill - Lie, your bill was rejected by your own party for its pandering and lack of all regulation - mainly because of your Nuclear Donor, Exelon, from which David Axelrod came.
21.) I Have Released My State Records - Lie, as of May, 1 2008, state bills you sponsored or voted for have yet to be released, exposing all the special interests pork hidden within.
22.) I Took On The Asbestos Altgeld Gardens Mess - Lie, you were part of a large group of people who remedied Altgeld Gardens. You failed to mention anyone else but yourself, in your books.
23.) My Economics Bill Will Help America - Lie, your 111 economic policies were just combined into a proposal which lost 99-0, and even YOU voted against your own bill.
24.) I Have Been A Bold Leader In Illinois - Lie, even your own supporters claim to have not seen BOLD action on your part.
25.) I Passed 26 Of My Own Bills In One Year - Lie, they were not YOUR bills, but rather handed to you, after their creation by a fellow Senator, to assist you in a future bid for higher office.
26.) No One Contacted Canada About NAFTA - Lie, the Candian Government issued the names and a memo of the conversation your campaign had with them.
27.) I Am Tough On Terrorism - Lie, you missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction of Israel.
28.) I Am Not Acting As President Yet - Lie, after the NAFTA Memo, a dead terrorist in the FARC, in Colombia, was found with a letter stating how you and he were working together on getting FARC recognized officially.
29.) I Didn’t Run Ads In Florida - Lie, you ran ads ONLY along the florida border as well as national ads in an attempt to reach Florida voters 8-12 times per day for two weeks - and you still lost.
30.) I Won Michigan - Lie, no you didn’t.
31.) I won Nevada - Lie, no you did not.
32.) I Want All Votes To Count - Lie, you said let the delegates decide, and you have fought to have another primary in Michigan or Florida.
33.) I Want Americans To Decide - Lie, you prefer caucuses that limit the vote, confuse the voters, force a public vote, and only operate during small windows of time.
34.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate - Lie, you passed 26, most of which you didn’t write yourself.
35.) My Campaign Was Extorted By A Friend - Lie, that friend is threatening to sue if you do not stop saying this. Obama has finally stopped saying this.
36.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics - Lie, you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer (a fellow democrat that wanted you to replace her in the next term) from running against you by challenging ALL of her signatures and thus running unapposed.
37.) I Don’t Take PAC Money - Lie, you take loads of it. The Obama PAC is the largest PAC in the US Senate. I dare Obama supporters to go look this up.
38.) I don’t Have Lobbysists - Lie, you have over 47 lobbyists, and counting.
39.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad - Lie, your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon.
40.) My Campaign Never Took Over MySpace - Lie, Tom, who started MySpace issued a warning about this to MySpace clients.
41.) I Inspire People With My Words - Lie, you inspire people with other people’s words.
42.) I Have Passed Bills In The U.S. Senate - Lie, you have passed A BILL in the U.S. Senate - for Africa, which shows YOUR priorities.
43.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq - Lie, you weren’t in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time, unlike Kucinich, who seems to be out gutting you. You also seem to be stepping back from your departure date in Iraq - AGAIN.
44.) I Have Always Supported Universal Health Care - Lie, your plan leaves us all to pay for the 15,000,000 who don’t have to buy it.
45.) I Only Found Out About My Investment Conflicts Via Mail - Lie, both companies you site as having sent you letters about this conflict have no records of any such letters ever being created or sent.
46.) My Wife Didn’t Mean What She Said About Pride In Country - Lie, your wife’s words follow lock-step in the vein of Wright and Farrahkan, in relation to their contempt and hatred of America.
47.) Wal-Mart Is A Company I Wouldn’t Support - Lie, your wife has received nearly a quater of a million dollars through Treehouse, which is connected to Wal-Mart.
48.) Treehouse Is A Small Company - Lie, the CEO of Treehouse last year, made more than the CEO of Wal-Mart, according to public records.
49.) University Of Chicago Hospital Pay Is Fair - Lie, your wife’s pay raise was nearly 150% her already bloated rate (going from $120K to $320K weeks after you got into the US Senate and tried to get a $1 million pork project for the very same hospital) and the hospital is a Non-Profit Hospital, which made $100,000,000 in the last 3 years. They overcharge blacks VS whites for services, and overcharge everyone in general by 538%!
50.) I Barely Know Rezko - Only 5 Billed Hours - Lie, you have known him for 17 years, and decided to do a real estate deal with him during a time when he was proven to be under investigation. Despite this, you divided your property and had them take off $300K before the mortgage problems started. Then Rezko’s wife buys the lot beside it that you can’t afford, saving you $625,000.
51.) My Donations Have Been Checked Thoroughly - Lie, you only gave back Hsu ($72K [Yes, the same Hsu, Obama supporters try to tie Clinton to]) and Rezko (first $66K, then when caught lying $86K, then when caught lying again $150K and now caught lying YET AGAIN, it’s $250k) their money when publically called on their involvement in your campaigns.
52.) My Church Is Like Any Other Christian Church - Lie, your church is so extreme, the pastor who married you, Rev. Wright, just got done blaming the US for 9/11 and named Louis Farrahkan their person of the year.
53.) I Disagree With My Church All The Time - Lie, you only recently repudiated Wright, who married you and your wife, and you still donate large sums of money to assist the church in furthering its message - hatred and revenge. You donated in 2006 alone, $22,500 to the church that you so terribly disagree with. That is nearly $500 PER WEEK - that sure is disagreement, Senator Obama.
54.) I Have Clean Connections Despite Rezko - Lie, you are not only connected to Exelon and Rezko, you are also connected to Hillary PAC supporter Mr. Hsu, AND an Iraqi Billionaire of ill repute, Nadhmi Auchi, who ripped off people in the Food For Oil, Iraqi deal. Mr. Auchi was also found guilt in another political corruption scandal (largest in France since WWII). And this is one of Obamas' good supporters that paid millions into the Obama campaign.
55.) I never heard sermons like Rev. Wright’s, that have been in videos all day, You Tube - Lie! 3 days later during your Mea Culpa speech you said “Did I hear controversial statements while I sat in that church? Yes I did.” FLIP-FLOPER
56.) The Passport Invasion is a conspiracy to find dirt on me! - Lie. Your own Campaign Foreign Policy Advisor is the CEO of the company that looked into your records. Could it be that you had them look into yours to hide the fact you looked into Clinton’s and McCain’s more than a year before!
57.) Rev. Meeks has nothing to do with my campaigning - Lie. Rev. Meeks appeared in ads for your Senate Campaign, donated to you, and helped raise money, then AND NOW. He also seems to despise America as much as Rev. Wright.
58.) My wife didn’t mean America is ignorant, she was just using a phrase - Lie. Again, MicHELLe’s comments are perfectly in sync with Wright’s, Meeks’, and Farrakhans, both in language, anger, and direction.
59.) I am very Anti-Terror - Lie. One of your good pals is long time radical and terrorist William Ayers, with whom you have been seen in the last 12 months and who has helped the now jailed khalidi, Professor at Columbia who invited Ahmadinejad to the University, to raise money for Palestinian terrorism attacks against Israel. PS - Your church published a pro Hamas Manifesto - guess you weren’t there on THAT Sunday either? How lucky for you.
60.) I have the best plan to cure the Mortgage Crisis - Lie. You and your campaign buddy Penny 'SubPrime Bank Collapse' Prizker have had your little fingers full of subprime cash - Obama has taken $1,180,103 from the top issuers of subprime loans: Obama received $266,907 from Lehman, $5395 from GMAC, $150,850 from Credit Suisse First Boston, $11,250 from Countrywide, $9052 from Washington Mutual, $161,850 from Citigroup, $4600 from CBASS, $170,050 from Morgan Stanley, $1150 from Centex, and last but certainly NOT LEAST - Obama received $351,900 from Goldman Sachs. I am sure that cash all came from folks who knew the subprime loan they had was a dream, eh?
61.) I played greater role in crafting liberal stands on gun control, the death penalty and abortion - Lie - It was found that Obama — the day after sitting for the interview — filed an amended version of the questionnaire, which appears to contain Obama’s own handwritten notes added to one answer. Read Obama had greater role on liberal survey

[Linda]

All I can say is hello President McCain.

Because I certainly WON'T vote for Hillary if Obama is not the nominee. And I seriously doubt if many of his supporters will.

A Vote for Hillary is a vote for the same inept same.

[Kip Anderson]

This arguement by the Clinton campaign just further illustrates their willingness to ignore the democratic process. Their 'when behind, change the rules' strategy is not going to win them the election in the end.

They continue to carefully wordsmith their arguements to rule out the reality that Obama is just plain ahead in the popular vote, the pledge delegate count, and very soon, the Superdelegate count. IT IS TIME FOR HILLARY CLINTON TO GO HOME AND SALVAGE WHAT LITTLE SELF RESPECT SHE HAS LEFT!

[alindra]

So let's forget the primaries and just do polls. Only which ones? They are all so different and fluctuate from day to day. So we've got to pick the right poll and the right moment when it is going to go OUR way, and bingo! we've got the nomination! Congratulations!

[Jakw]

Why are these superdelegates going for Obama right now? He is clearly the one hurting the party right now.

[Marge Pergola]

If Gov. Rendell and other like him support Barack Obama after Hillary Clinton is out of the picture, what are the statistics then?

Older white woman who supports Obama

[BJ]

Although I don't put much faith in polls, what is significant is, obviously Clinton IS outperforming Obama.

Considering all previous polls had Obama way ahead, this clearly shows the tide is indeed turning towards Hillary's favor.

Superdelegates have to consider the bigger picture. Obama is unelectable for November vs. McCain!

I personally was willing to take a hit on taxes under Clinton because I believe in her, and I believe she is the best candidate to lead us out of the mess Bush has gotten us into.

HOWEVER, I WILL NOT do this for Obama! I do not trust him, I think he is unqualified, and I don't believe his message of change!

It's either Clinton or McCain!

[Firman Beckwith]

up-coming story you may find interesting

Four Senior Citizens to Jet Ski from Chicago to New Orleans. Ages: 76,73,72, and 67.

We will arrive in Chicago on August 12 and launch two Jet skis for New Orleans on August 13. This is a 1850 mile trip lasting 16-17 days down the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers.

The 76 abd 67 year old will do most of the riding and the other two will shadow us in the land vehicle.

Our story will be written up in the American Watercraft Association's magazine RIDE.

We are also trying to get a story published by AARP's Modern Maturity, and we think this would be a great story for some network to carry with 1-2 minute coverage each day of our trip.

To read about a previous 4600 mile jet ski trip go to google and enter Firman Beckwith and read the artice "Old Friends"

We may be old, but still fistie and full of it.

For more info, contact me at"

Firman Beckwith
9020 Sandorn Drive
Roswell, GA 30075
770-552-6622
404-518-6622

fpcbeckwith@mindspring.com

[Jim Lundberg, San Diego, CA]

Ron Paul would beat them all, if main stream media would give his views a fair shake. I feel like I'm living in Russia sometimes, with Air America only showing us the candidates that THEY want, not us.

[dj6080]

Voters have been taken in by this promise-them-anything-to-get-elected, smear campaigner. She continues to sow seeds of distrust amongst voters of a black candidate. Rotten politics, considering the secret in her own closet. She needs to be true to herself and not continue to throw stones at Obama. Just think about all of her promises to us, and her poor record of sound judgment--do you really believe that HRC can, or intends to deliver on those promises? Can you trust a woman with a record of lies? And BOLD lies at that! (All the way back to WhiteWater, Vince Foster, and the White House "Affairs" and Paula and Gennifer, et al.). And of course she ran for the N.Y. Senate, telling the people of N.Y. that she wanted to be their senator and wasn't interested in running for Prez. In the interest of the party, it would be better if superdelegates declared ASAP; this woman in her own way is as bad as Rev. Wright. She is only thinking of herself and her need to be President of the U.S. She will do anything to get there.

[KH]

Ok... and why does this poll matter? Obama is leading in Delegates and many more points. This is far too late to be considered as anything of substance. When Clinton finally drops out of the race she should just make sure that she speaks to her supporter and lets them know that now they have to support Obama. That is as simple as that. With the amount of supports Obama and Clinton have combined they can easily win over Mccain!

[Denver Dave]

Hillary has 2 options to combat McCain.
1: continue this divisive, guaranteed to fail, Republican-style attack campaign and hope, against all odds and logic, that she wins.
2: Drop out of the race and strongly support Obama, lending him her supporters.

The first leads to further divisions in the Democrats and has only a small chance of succeeding. The inevitable outcome is that it hastens the flight of blacks and the young from the Democratic party. If Clinton doesn't win, or wins by a small enough margin to allow the Republicans to steal the election again, then it would mean the "permanent majority" that the Bushies have been looking for.

The second leads to a united Democratic party, a leadership position in the Senate for Mrs. Clinton, and an easy win for Obama.

Of course, she doesn't see this. Instead, her operatives will continue to invite Reverend Wright to press club meetings, she'll continue to claim that McCain would be a better commander in cheif than Obama, and she'll rip our party apart. Feh.

[Steve Nesich]

Don, why no mention of this week's Zogby poll showing McCain beating Clinton, nationwide, by 10 points, but also shows Obama beating McCain, nationwide, by 3 points?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1490

I can understand why the Clinton camp isn't telling us about this poll, but I think you're ignoring significant information that directly contradicts the recent Clinton attempts at "spin".

[Wake up People]

Rev Wright was close friends with the Clintons, so close that he got a personal invite to dinner at the white house. Why does Obama get all the flack? Wright spends more time with Clinton supporters!

[Brandon]

Seems a bit slanted:
Compare
"Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44),"
and
"Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46)."

[jimbo]

Stay in there and keep on campaignng Hillary . Middle America is behind you. !! We dont want this radical Obama and all his baggage of villains in the White House. He CANNOT WIN IN NOVEMBER. These Super delegates need to get back in touch with reality and with AMERICA !!! What r they smoking ??

[lata]

Oh really!!

Polls never mattered if Sen Obama was leading all this while over an year !! Now they mean a LOT??

After Obama wins the nomination, Hillary and her group can write up something on " How to spin things your way no matter what".

BTW, where are your 2007 tax returns Hillary and Bill ?

[melisande delissade]

These numbers are going to get worse for Obama. What I am concerned about is an underground current from some Hill democrats who support BO who want to ram through an early commitment from superdelegates.

Another example of some in washington being way out of touch with the rest of the country. No way no how will I vote for Obama unless he is veep to Hillary's coc.
Just can't stand the herd mentality and the whining sanctimony.

BTW, lest people say this is another indication of grouchy clinton people saying its their way or the highway, I want to make clear that my reasons for NOT VOTING FOR BO have nothing to do with my reasons FOR voting for HRC. They are two separate issues.

[J Hanks]

The fact that FOX is favorable to Clinton over Obama says it all, the right wing wants Clinton vs McCain.

[JZ]

"As tracked by Time magazine's Page blog, some superdelegates just aren't getting the message, however."
That's why they lost last two elections to Bush when the democrates should have been in the white house for those past years!!

[Larry]

So in other words, don't vote for the person you want to be president. Vote for the candidate who has the better chance of winning!

Well, I guess it's easier than running on ideas.