Why Barack Obama fears a sudden end to Hillary Clinton's campaign

"The Democratic race now moves to West Virginia," Jay Leno noted during his monologue Thursday night on "The Tonight Show." "Today, Hillary Clinton claimed she always wanted to be a coal miner. But those dreams were dashed when she was forced to attend Wellesley and Yale."

The political focus now does, indeed, shift to the Mountaineer State for its primary there next Tuesday. And then Kentucky and Oregon and Puerto Rico down to the very end in Montana on June 3 when springtime there is just weeks away.

The Times' not-so-old political pro, Mark Z. Barabak, had an interesting conversation with another not-so-old political pro, Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who cut his presidential political teeth in the 1980 Jimmy Carter campaign. Later he worked in the unsuccessful presidential efforts of Al Gore and John Kerry. Devine is not involved with any candidate this time around.

But the way he sees the inevitable delegate math in favor of Barack Obama and the current Democratic race ending is, counterintuitively, the worst thing that could happen to the Illinois senator in....

this marathon and often bitter struggle between the two Democratic survivors is what so many party members are already unthinkingly clamoring for: Clinton to drop out right now. ASAP.

Why?

Because with her name still on the ballots, she'd be very likely to go on and win in West Virginia anyway, even as a dropout. And maybe Kentucky too, given the demographics in both places. And possibly Puerto Rico as well.

How would that look if at the end of the Democratic race the winning candidate with clearly the most delegates and popular votes went down to defeat against a candidate who isn't even in the contest anymore? Ouch! That would tend to overshadow his expected wins in Oregon and Montana.

In fact, although little noticed because the Republican race had long been over, Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, won his Pennsylvania primary with 73% of the vote. To be sure, thousands of Republicans crossed over to vote in the more interesting Democratic contest for whatever reason.

But put another way, the surefire Republican nominee lost about 27% of his own party's vote to a candidate who had long since dropped out (ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee) and a Republican rebel who never really had any chance of winning (Rep. Ron Paul).

"If [Obama] lost to a candidate who's withdrawn, that would hurt him a lot," says Devine. "And there's a good chance that could happen."

Better, he figures, for the former first lady to remain in the race a couple more weeks at least, as long as she recalibrates her rhetorical cannons at McCain and President Bush, instead of her party's new presumptive presidential candidate.

That would, of course, require at least a tacit admission of defeat by Clinton. Let's all hold our breath for that to happen.

Obama seems to recognize this. At a fundraiser in Washington's Union Station last night with cheese and crackers and fruits for a minimum $1,000, he told supporters, "The nomination doesn't take place in August -- it takes place until August."

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo Credit: AP

Comments

[Bill Nahay]

Beyond all other considerations, no one should forget Vince Foster. Sen. Obama, if he chooses Mrs. Clinton as his running mate, should double security and hire food tasters.

[jc]

Puerto Rico? Why on earth is Puerto Rico involved in our political process? Last I checked there were onty 50 states, not 51!

[Valrie Sommerville]

It is a shame that reporters make opinionated statements instead of reporting facts. Hillary Clinton would make a stronger candidate against John McCain in Nov. John McCain is running a campaign that slightly resembles Hillary's positions. Some say she is more of a Republican candidate then Democrat. Taking that into consideration McCain is talking to Hillary supporters across the country sharing his beliefs. If you connect the dots that spells trouble for Obama. Hillary supporters as many as 50% have already said they will vote for McCain. Looking at the numbers if the large voter turnout of Democrats go to the polls in Nov and say at least 33% of independents, and 33% of Hillary supporters along with Republicans go to the polls McCain will when in a landslide. So if you are a McCain backer as a reporter it is in your own self interest to report Hillary's defeat. That puts McCain in an advantage to beat Obama. On the other hand Democrats are so blinded by the hero worship of Obama that they are foolishly believing they can win and that Hillary voters will go ahead and not cross party lines. But in a short history lesson look at Regan. He easily captured the democrats "Regan Democrats". Are we about to engage in a new area of "McCain Democrats". Polls suggest that this is very plausible. So if you are a Super Delegate what are you going to do in the best interest of keeping all these Hillary supporters with the Democrats? Hillary could put the Mayor of Philadelphia as her VP. That would bring a lot of Obama supporters to her side. I really believe that there has been a conspiracy to keep the Clinton name out of the Whitehouse. It all starts with the double standards of Kennedy and Kerry and Dean. Those three men are of the old party that did not reach the Whitehouse in their runs and used the Florida and Michigan to their advantage to quell gender biased opinions of their own. They have done everything in their power to not count these votes until the last minute. They have not fully considered the ramification of these disenfranchised voters who stated their preference of Hillary Clinton in record setting numbers in Florida. If a poll of Florida women were conducted reviewing voter registration party affiliation switching from Republican to Democrats it would be mind boggling. Those voters and many others who have been silenced by a Party that claims to represent all people of all classes and equality for all is disgusting. We are a nation of 48 states now in the Democratic Party. This tatic will not go unnoticed by the people of Michigan and Florida. The super delegates have been put in a very bad position because logic and polls tell them Hillary has the better support from the most crucial states but the medias biased reports have made a bad situation look worse. The media is stirring up black democrats and liberals to cry foul- she stealing the election. The party elders need to take a stand to quell this disenfranchisement and not be afraid to endorse the stronger candidate. Anyone who has been following the Chicago politics know it is very possible that the Governor of Illinois may get indited. Rezko may cooperate in exchange for information that will connect Obama to these problems. That is not good in an Election where Democrats can make a come back.

[george charles paree]

The people of this country has made a mistake it might not come back from.I khow we hated what bush has done to our morals fighting men an women have given there upmost. The insame idea of this man running our country is impostable to brlieve.Hillary is the best of either party but people are only about there guilt about what the country has done to the blacks in the pasted.I am O>K. with a black man as long as he is experience but Obama so not.

[Maria Luisa]

What happened to the democratic process? People must have a chance have their vote counted, otherwise we are not a democracy but a country run by media sources and herd mentatlities. As the country rallies around the hand picked golden boy known for for speech making and platitudes with the aid of pundints, talking heads, various newspapers, bloggers, network news, and mostly mean spirited, often ugly comments about Senator Clinton who will not quit until we have a nominee. Florida and Michigan must be seated at the convention. This is a country of 50 states and it should be a convention of 50 state delegations. Every state should be represented. Hillary won significant victories in both Florida and Michigan and the delegations from those states must to be seated.

This is probably the first time in history we just might have a Presidential nominee handpicked by network news and newscasters looking for ratings who lost their soul and objectivity in the process. People must have a chance have their vote counted, otherwise we are not a democracy but a country run by media sources and herd mentatlities.

[Jeanne]

Hey Robert...I'm a Hillary supporter and I agree with you 100%. I will NEVER vote for BO, not because I believe in Hillary so much as I am to the point that I cring when I hear BO's voice...just like I do when I hear Bush's. He is too arrogant and you are right...the GOP is just waiting to pounce on his unknowns...or they make them up and make them stick...just like with Kerry.

[Lenora]

Obama speaks of CHANGE. It is the American people that really need to change. We have allowed the media to manipulate us by emotions. Committes now tell us if our vote counts only if we vote when they tell us to. I believe if the American people want to get control back of their lives now is the time to form an INDEPENDENT PARTY. The Rep & Dem party committees now think more highly of themselves than they should. They really are having a PARTY & A HAY DAY with our lives. I think a Hillary Clinton to stop the War ticket and a Mike Huckabee rebuild the infrastructure of America ticket would be the dream ticket. The working class of the American peoples lives have been completely stripped away from us by these two parties. We need to form our own party and take back the country that we have worked to build. We have been SOLD OUT to a dollar long enough and it is OUR DOLLAR that we have WORKED HARD for that they are using to sell us out.

[lenorastephens]

Obama speaks of CHANGE. It is the American people that really need to change. We have allowed the media to manipulate us by emotions. Committes now tell us if our vote counts only if we vote when they tell us to. I believe if the American people want to get control back of their lives now is the time to form an INDEPENDENT PARTY. The Rep & Dem party committees now think more highly of themselves than they should. They really are having a PARTY & A HAY DAY with our lives. I think a Hillary Clinton to stop the War ticket and a Mike Huckabee rebuild the infrastructure of America ticket would be the dream ticket. The working class of the American peoples lives have been completely stripped away from us by these two parties. We need to form our own party and take back the country that we have worked to build. We have been SOLD OUT to a dollar long enough and it is OUR DOLLAR that we have WORKED HARD for that they are using to sell us out.

[jchbrock]

But, what is the will of the people?

About the pundits declaring the race is over, we think they are ignoring the fatal flaw in the Democratic nominating process. We have not read one article or heard one pundit talk about why caucuses do not necessarily reflect the will of the people. Obama owes his lead in pledged delegates to the twelve caucuses.

So, what is the problem? Caucuses disenfranchise Hillary's main voter base: older voters, working people who cannot afford baby sitters or take time off to participate in the lengthy caucus process, and, last but not least, the many women who are intimidated or feel pressured by the public aspect of caucuses. Many of these voters use absentee ballots in primary states. To prove to yourself that the caucus results do not represent the voting population of a state, compare the results of caucuses to the results of primaries (see the Map on the website election.msn.com, for example).

We call on the superdelegates to study the caucus issue and what it means in this election before the media makes the decision for them. Hillary Rodham Clinton has shown that she is the most electable Democrat based on the results in primary states.

[Anne Perretta]

I am a Senator Clinton supporter and NOT a Barack Obama hater. I like them both. I just think Senator Clinton is a far better leader. I am amazed that the press will not print that the very qualities that keep Senator Clinton in the race, are the same very qualities that this Nation needs in the Executive Office. It has been clear from the start that the Media Mauling of Senator Clinton has been done gleefully and with a certain amount of misogyny. Who needs to quit? Why, the press, of course. This woman is a LEADER and not a ROCK STAR. It is time we turned the White House over to the former and not the latter.

[america4all]

IG you won't vote for Obama. You childish wimp. You didn't win so you are a sore loser. For the better of the coutry, if you are a Democrat, you support the party's nominee. Turn in your Democrat credentials sucker. The party doesn' t need punks like you!!!

[Sharon]

I think we should all respect the nomination process and allow the voters of each state to have their say. I don't see any real benefit to kicking Senator Clinton out of the race, if anything it will just make it even more difficult for Senator Obama to court her supporters (and, as this article states, it would be embarassing for Senator Obama to lose to a candidate who has dropped out).

As for the rumors about Senator Obama coming out and declaring himself the nominee later on this month, if he does that it will just remind people of President Bush's mission accomplished fiasco. Why not wait until the convention, if he is so sure the nomination is his, why is all this posturing necessary?

[crat3]

Obama is no Presumptive nominee. Obama does not have the requisite number of delegates for the nomination; he has no presumptive lock on the nomination.

The Democratic nomination process is still in progress and concludes when all of the remaining states have voted and the superdelegates select the best qualified candidate for the presidency using their independent judgement. Sen. Clinton is the best qualified presidential candidate and she must continue fighting for the future of America.

The premature end of the nomination process is a subversion of the Democratic nomination process and will result in Obama crashing and burning in November and the Democratic Party a train wreck. I will vote for McCain. McCain will be president and it will be four more years of Bush under McCain.

[Nodrog]

Fact of the matter is, Barack Obama is the best option in any party running for president at the moment. Period.

That said, I don't believe any candididate working within the confines of The System As We Know It has the ability to make substantial, significant "change" such as Mr. Obama keeps promising. I'll vote for him in the presidential election, but I'm cynical as hell about it.

I keep thinking back to my old college political science teacher who emphatically told us (with regard to presidential politics): "Don't vote. It just encourages the bastards."

Yep.

[Suzanne]

Robert, who will NEVER EVER vote for Obama, would rather see Bush's near clone get elected and name more right wing conservatives to the Court. He would want this disastrous war to surge on. He would want wealth concentrated among the wealthiest. He would want our present failing health care system to remain unchanged. Get over it. Your candidate, and mine, worked hard and lost. Get behind the nominee.

[ada blanco]

Why should Hillary quit? Sixteen million voters have voted for her. Yes the math is not on her favor, but for us moderate democrats she is the only option. If BO thinks he can win in november with the AA and elitist liberals vote only, I suggest he looks back at what happened to Dukakis and Kerry. The Hillary democrats will leave the democratic party and vote for McCain who is someone we can respect. The media is doing a great diservice to this country by trying to shove Obama sown our throats!
The audacity of ARROGANCE!

[Olivia]

Do not push her out of the race

Hispanic, Asians, white blue collars and most women, and old people have overwellmingly voted for Hillary. Big states with large numbers of electoral delegates -crucial in November-- are on HIllary side. The exception is Illinois. All swing states are also on her side. This is a solid base.

What Barack has on his side is the African Americans (>90%), young and educated Americans. Think also that in southern states like NC, SC, GA predominatly repubicans is unlikely that the black vote will be enough to win the electoral delegates. That is not a big political base for the general election. Remember also that the Wright issue appeared after the FEb and March super Tuesdays.

If Barack wants to win in November, he better doesn't forget that almost (if no more than) half of all democrats and independents voted for Hillary when his name was in the ballot.

[Koronin]

Why not, she should stay in the race. The press for Obama will only get better and hers will get worse as everyone has seen the writing on the wall.

[Sonali]

The Reason Hillary shouldn't step down is because none of the candidate have the required number of delegates. She has won the swing states and is leading McCain in Florida which is most likely to cost democrats the vicotry if Obama is the nominee. I will not vote for Obama because his delegate count is based on undemocratic process called caucus. I am from Texas where we had both primary and caucus and I am also a delegate at Precinct level. I served on the rules committee and I know how the rules were changed after the fact to seat all Obama delegates. It is so fraudulent that I am not going to ever vote for Obama. I am disgusted with democratic party. Committee chair who was Obama supporter like most local party workers delivered a caucus victory by fraud, voter disenfrnachisment and breaking each and every rule. Why don't you reporters report that instead of giving opinions? You all are corrupt and in tank with Obama. Go Hillary! Run as independent. Ditch the corrupt party.

[Cole Swaford]

As a Ron Paul type Republican I hope more than anything Obama wins this race. He is a preacher, not a leader. He has said he will bring change but not how. Obama will not get Hillary's supporters. McCain will expose Obama for what he is. McCain is a liberal republican and will win the race. Democrats will give this country away to illegals and continue to reward people for poor decisions with public assistance. We are going bankrupt because of free handouts.

[Gorefan]

Alex
Sweets tried to be to clever with the phrasing and it is confusing. But I think Sweets means Leiberman not Gore. Either way it's not going to happen. McCain is pro-life and Leiberman is pro-choice and other then the war in Iraq, they are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. Besides, the republicans would implode if McCain chose Leiberman.

[Gary Anderson]

Senator Clinton has won over 15 MILLION VOTES and a number of large states. The POPULAR VOTE SPREAD IS LESS THAN 1%. Six contest remain. To most rational minds suggesting "Clinton...drop out" is premature as well as insulting. Obama, himself, said yesterday,"There's no doubt that she's qualified to be vice-president, there's NO DOUBT SHE'S QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT." How many of you reading this blog would simply step aside because the other side ask you ?

[Edwin Nowak]

Let the election go forward.

Why is nobody asking WHERE IS FLORIDA and MICHIGAN

Would Clinton then be the front runner

YES....

Do not let drunk Kennedy and Loser Howard Dean
direct the election

[Edward Manzeer]

Obama doesn't fear an end to the Clinton campaign. It is big media that fears the Democratic competition ending. Follow the money. Obama and Clinton are raising and spending millions on media. When they stop competing the cash flow to big media will change dramatically. McCain will have a McThrifty campaign limited by his choice to take public money. Obama can spend big but will he need to? Then big media will have to count on the 2008 Swiftboaters and their half-truths to keep cash flowing to TV, radio, print, and web advertising.

[Connie]

As a Clinton supporter, and a longtime Democrat, I hope she stays in until the very end, fighting all the way. Right up to the convention floor. Let the chips fall where they may.
I need to stand by the best candidate for President, and in my opinion, Hillary is that candidate. My reason for this is that I don't think Obama has such an easy victory in the National Election as many think.
We can argue about who is the most divisive candidate, Hillary or Obama. That's a matter of opinion.
I have been a long time Democrat, but some of my Republican friends say they would vote for Clinton if the choice were between Clinton and McCain...This is a revelation that I never thought would come to be. They are staunch Republicans. And stood by Bush almost to the end. They also said, that however, if Obama was the nominee, they could never vote for him.
So, his path in the National Election will be much tougher than hers. In my opinion.
Maybe the polls don't reflect this, but this is my own personal sphere of influence poll. And this is a truthful statement. No spin.
And I have many Republican and Democratic friends. They have finally,accepted the fact that she, a woman, would make the better President of the three. That was hard to admit for some of my male Republican and Democratic friends. They were resistant at first, but they have acknowledged that now,as the campaign progressed , they have gained more and more respect and admiration for her, and her capabilities. They came to like her. I think a lot of people came to know the likeable Hillary Clinton.
The delegates and super delegates are looking out for their own interests, not the interests of the United States of America .
I can see that clearly now ,as John Edwards has been on the fence so long, his wife now for Hillary, and he trying to find out where his place will be when all the dust settles. Even as late as today he will not formerly endorse Obama, although he says he voted for him! Either do it or don't do it. Make a choice. He is definitely thinking of himself, as are the other delegates. Job Security it is called. Could I be Vice-President , or maybe some other plum position? Waiting to jump on the band wagon with the perceived front runner. And they cant even make up their own minds. They wait and see what the pundits and newspapers and blogs etc. say.
But where will all the no guts Super Delegate Democrats be if McCain wins the election? If he does, they brought it on themselves.
You see, for them , its not just a simple vote of who would be able to win the National Election.
They have to consider , where will I be? It shouldn't be that way. According to what I thought, and correct me if I am wrong, the super-delegates were put there to do what was best for the Democratic Party and to select the candidate that would be best able to win in the National Election, should it come down to that. .That should be their question to themselves, Nothing else. Forget how their state voted, forget black and white, forget male or female, forget everything else. Who can win?
Maybe they don't know. They have muddled everything so much they can't extricate themselves now and make a sensible calculated decision. Plus they have no statistics to go by. There has never been a woman candidate for President or a Black candidate
So now, Kennedy,Kerry , Richardson, and Donna Brazil, Pelosi, and others to numerous to mention, have to swallow hard, stop being star struck, and/or racist or sexist , and or a Clinton Era/supporter or non supporter, and realize that a lot of people are not sexist or racist, but are realists, and are worrying about themselves and will vote for the best candidate, whom they think can win and will do the most for them, when push comes to shove. They have to be a realist. Look at the candidates. Hillary's right. It's like a job interview. Who do you want to be the President of the United States? And that depends on everyone's personal feeling and judgment. Its like going to the Casino. Noone knows where the chips may fall. It depends on the judgement of the American People. And the last time their judgement was terrible.
My bet, when you come down to the wire, is most people, in this world situation will choose experience, over hope.
But, I guess hope is all that is left for some..
In my opinion, hope will not bring change. Only hard work will.At least, that has been my experience. Change will come, but it will have to be gradual and steady., And it will take someone with experience. The Presidency shouldn't come with a manual for on the job training..We 've tried that. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't ..It certainly did not work with Bush. And we lost big time.
The United States is not in a position now to take any risks. This is a crucial election. That's my feeling.
I feel of the two Democratic candidates, Hillary is the best choice. The most tested, the most solid.
As far as the Republican Candidate, I will not speak. McCain is the nominee.
It is up to my Republican friends to decide what their choice will be in this election. And in the end they will make a choice. Maybe they will cross over, maybe they won't ... How much of a gambler should we be?
I'm not a gambler.. I personally think Hillary has better odds to win the National election. Its not going to be as easy as everyone thinks.
This is My vote. Not influenced by anyone else. I will go to work the same as always, the day after the election, no matter who becomes President. And I will rejoice because Bush will no longer be there. As a footnote, I did not vote for him. I made the right choice then, I am making the right choice now.