Dueling, confusing polls in the Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton race

Somebody's survey sample is all fouled up. Or maybe we just need periodic reminders of how imprecise efforts to gauge public opinion can be.

Two national surveys by esteemed polling organizations -- each conducted over precisely the same time period, Thursday through Sunday -- were released today, and the results, at first glance, significantly differ.

A CBS News/New York Times poll found that among those who have voted or plan to cast ballots in a Democratic presidential primary, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton, 50% to 38%.

By contrast, a USA Today/Gallup poll of Democratic voters put Clinton ahead, 51% to 44%.

Baffled? Wait, it gets murkier.

The New York Times story on the survey it co-commissioned takes an arm's-length attitude toward the Democratic horse race question, focusing on other findings instead. It contains this caveat in the seventh paragraph: "The relatively small number of Democrats surveyed limits the conclusions that can be drawn about the poll’s findings regarding sentiment in the party."

In fact, nowhere in the story ...

... are the figures revealed for the Democratic matchup (which was based on interviews with 283 likely voters and has an error margin of plus or minus 6 percentage points).

The CBS News story on the poll did not show similar restraint. It gives the horse race numbers in the third paragraph, noting that they show that Obama's lead had risen to 12 percentage points from 8 in a comparable survey conducted less than a week ago.

The USA Today/Gallup poll interviewed a larger sample of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents -- 516, giving its result on the Clinton-Obama preferences an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Still, caveats abound, as the latter part of the USA Today story delineates.

The article notes that the survey it spotlights differs "from a separate Gallup tracking poll of voters, which shows Obama with a narrow lead, 49%-45%."

This tracking poll (available here) not only was based on a larger sample, putting its error margin at plus or minus 3 percentage points, but it is more up to date, with more interviews conducted on Saturday.

Bottom line: Poll readers beware.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[MissClarity]

I salute the LA Times for their freedom of speech support of the comments section after their articles.. Reuters, Washington Post, New York Times, Boston Globe, Associated Press and others: What do they all have in common? They write their damaging articles about Sen. Obama (most of it made up that means more Clintonista journalism) and then won't allow for comments as IF. Skezzy as usual. Those papers do not represent journalism at all. It's a good ole boy club of liars, manipulators, mockers and scouffers and they are proud of it. The only people they can hold their head high about is their types-you know birds of a feather flock together. The thinking American citizens are fully aware of their tactics. The publications are very weak and they attract the weak - you know - the weak stick together in mindless support of what? a liar. Lambs to the slaughter. They should be sooooooooooooooo proud of themselves 'cause decency is not in their vocabulary. Oh Well.

[MissClarity]

If Clinton and McCain are the candidates I will vote for Ron Paul because he's still on the ticket. I've run my own poll and found that alot of people are starting to remember how much sense Ron Paul makes compared to the squirrels Clinton and McCain. I hope all of American sees this.. Obama is my first choice and God will have his way no matter what happens.

[miss fallon]

Clinton VS. Obama well thinkin about it from a females point of view atleast....... i think mrs clinton should be our 2008 winner not only does she want good for us but she also is married to mr.Clinton who did a awsome job at running this country!! and with his back up the 2 together would make a great team. think about about it it will take some time but america will have money and jobs. and the econmy would be back to great as if it was bill being president! YEAHHHH GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MiSs FaLlOn

[MsSwin]

Are Indiana and NC voters aware that Hillary has voted to allow the government to take our guns in case of a 'national emergency'?

It's not Annie get your gun, it's Annie get OUR guns.

July 13, 2006 Hillary voted against amendment 4615 to H.R. 5441:

“To prohibit the confiscation of a firearm during an emergency or major disaster if the possession of such firearm is not prohibited under Federal or State law.”

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=109&session=2&vote=00202

[Rose OC]

Thanks for writing about this. I check the polls everyday and the results vary SO much from day to day that I am now just looking to have a laugh. Funny how some sources will always favor one or the other candidate consistently, (even though journalists are neutral — ha) but they are all miles apart from each other.

[nile]

Obama is being villified by the so called "main stream" media drumming up the Rev. Write story to promote their own "elitist" and "racist" agenda.Thanks latimes, all others are like they are screaming out loud "no son of Africa (N**er) will ever be my president". Ever since the Rev Write and the "bitter" story, it has been like a collective signal had been turned on in the minds of these so called inept and biased writers of the "main stream media." They have totaly given up even the pretense of reporting the issues. They won't let up. All they want to do is " ' Rev' up the bitter" comment. I am disgusted America.

Obama is a decent man, with the temprament to match. Obama, I hope you will be the president of this great nation show the world what this nation is capable of.

[robinia]

Miss FALLON,

You do what you please in November when voting for the new President of the United States.

May I suggest, however, than in September when the new school semester begins, please enroll in Basic English 101 to improve your writing skills.

Props to you if you are enrolled in a writing skills program already.

Tootles!

[Carolyn Grace]

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama up 50-45%. Last week I believe he was down 4-5%. He now needs 273 delegates to secure the nomination. Hillary needs over 400. So, is this really a horse race like the MSM pretends it to be? I don't think so. This is almost over folks.

[Obamamania]

Obama is our Savior. Obama, Ayers, and Reverend Wright are Right! God D*** america! The stupid, bitter, racist "typical white people" of pennsylvania voted for clinton. How disgusting, now they have even more blood on their hands! They ignored their opportunity to redeem themselves for their racim, and evil past -> slavery - to finally make Michelle proud. How sad, you bitter people confirmed that Michelle is right, this is a down right mean county. Please no hater responses, but you bitter, typical Indiana white people, please stop buying guns and save your money for my reparations check! Obama ''08, Repartions Check, ''09! http://www.npr.org/programs/specials/racism/010827.reparations.html

Anyone not voting for Obama is a racist!!!

[paulette]

pls the people of america stop punishing obama for the sins of his father.America can arise above that and show the world why they should remain the giant and God fearing country that we all know and respect.Obama is the right man for the job do not be biased people of America.

[GoBamaGirlz]

I don't think Obama is weak at all. I think it shows great strength to avoid fights. Terrorists haven't been a problem at all since 911 and I see no need for Hillary's "breast" beating on Iran. Obama has pledged to rid America of nuclear weapons which will make us safer. Who cares if he can't bowl or throw a ball or won't eat fattening food for God's sake? GO OBAMA '08!

[DEMS WANT OBAMA OUT]

GUAM 50/50 split!
Senator Hillary Clinton ties Obama in Guam! Pundits like CNN & MSNBC got it wrong again predicting Obama would win by double digits. Each candidate got 50% of the votes! More than half the voters will not vote for obama! 56% who heard speech less likely to vote for Obama, his unfavorable rating among registered voters up 37 percent!! Clinton leads McCain 48 to 41 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain are tied. National lead dropped 10pts now tied with Senator Clinton and he is now losing in IN too. Once 25 pts ahead in NC now just 5pts- They are not going to give this Presidency to Obama because hes black and if we don’t blacks will stay home, so what? American is ready to elect a black man not this black man who recently revealed a major character flaw and again calls into question his judgment and truthfulness of the candidate whose entire appeal has been based on character or his lack there of and not solutions. If Clinton is not on the ballot Working White Middle class will stay home and Obama cannot win on just black votes. David Axelrod said Obama doesn’t need white middle class voters. Axelrod said, “The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years. This is not new Democratic candidates don’t need to rely solely on those votes.”
DEMOCRATS WANT OBAMA OUT NOW!

[DO NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA]

The majority of the American Black community claims that they want to live in a society where discrimination doesn't exist, but appears they are not practicing what they are preach Obama continually pulls up to 90%+ of the black vote, it's obvious that most blacks are voting for a candidate because of skin color. CNN, MSNBC and FOX all have reported Obama camp have been calling African-American superdelegates to target, harass and threaten,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II (D-Mo.), a superdelegate who supports Clinton. Cleaver said black superdelegates are receiving “nasty letters, phone calls, threats, being called an Uncle Tom. Rep. Diane Watson, D-Calif., also is receiving several e-mails from individuals saying they won’t vote for her if she doesn’t change her support to Obama, she should vote for him because she, too, is black. Rep. John Lewis, a black civil rights icon, sadly enough has given into the racial threatening politics of the Obama camp and switched his support from Clinton to Obama.JUST MORE OBAMA CAMP DIRTY POLITICS, LIKE BEING CAUGHT IN A LIE ABOUT CANADA MEETING! HE IS CORRUPT!

[MNMary]

Maybe we should reinstate the literacy test for voter registration. Its really scarey to read this pap. Most of the posters here seem to choose the candidate to lead our country with tall he wisdom and thoughtfulnees they muster up to choose a favorite basketball team.

[Alfonso Polanco]

Not that I opposed the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, but it was recently reported that Bill and Hillary made over $106 Million in wages, salaries, royalties from books and speaking engagements. To make that much money is to be part of the upper clas...