Can John McCain carry California? Consult a new poll later today

John McCain has been offering springtime promises that a Republican presidential ticket headed by him can make California -- and its huge cache of 55 electoral votes -- competitive in November.

Such pledges by previous GOP standard-bearers have proved patently false in recent elections. But might McCain -- with his maverick persona, Western roots and potential appeal to Latinos -- be the exception to the rule?

A new L.A. Times/KTLA poll tested the proposition in McCain matchups with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And in at least one of the scenarios, the results may surprise many folks.

We aren't at liberty to reveal the exact results yet; for that, check out our homepage (latimes.com) about 5 p.m. EDT today (2 p.m. PDT).

Some perspective...

The last Republican to win the state in a White House race was George H.W. Bush in 1988; he defeated Michael Dukakis, 51%-48%.

Bill Clinton won it in 1992 with 46%; Bush got 33% and Ross Perot 21%. Clinton triumphed handily again in 1996, with 51% of the vote to Bob Dole's 38%.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush, 53%-42%. And four years ago, John Kerry kept the state securely in the Democratic column, getting 54% of the vote to Bush's 44%.

The odds, clearly, should be against McCain.

-- Don Frederick

 

Comments

[NK]

No...John McCain will not win California and whatever poll suggests that is likely marred in bias. I can't believe this suggestion made "Google News".

[Jack]

Talk about a pointless, article this one takes the cake. WTF?

[PJ]

WISHFUL THINKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

this paper needs to be sold and the editors FIRED.

[James Last]

Let's first see some debates between McCain and Obama. Obama is definately the better orator and McCain will find himself in a tight corner. I don't think California will become GOP stomping ground.

[Bob]

Why does the LA Times post EDT first, as though it were the standard? PST, people!

[npeeebles]

Polls right now don't mean very much

For the past two months both John McCain and Hillary Clinton having been lobbing rocks at Barack Obama
Through it all, he has managed to keep up if not forge ahead
Get Hillary out of the race and let Obama and McCain at it for awhile and let's just see what happens
McCain, like Clinton, is 'entitled' How dare he oppose veterans benefits all the while he is getting a 100% disability check
Being locked away in prison does not make one a war hero

[Brian]

The one thing that is left out of this article is an amendment that fights Gay marriage will be on the ballot. There will be a huge turn-out against Gay marriage that will help McCain. So, it's not McCains views as much as it's another issue that will bring out voters who would vote for McCain.

[Joe Konn]

McCain will carry Arizona, probably.

[tlhwraith]

Well, I guess the ploy worked. Drum up traffic to the site by basically putting a "teaser" article out there. Oh well, I guess the days of real media are gone and we are left with advertisers wrapped around the facade of being a news organization.

"Psst, we have something to tell you, but we can't say it now, although we are a news organization, you'll have to come back later so we can get more ad traffic...."

Oh well, fooled me once...

[G Valero]

I am californian and will vote for McCain.

[JayBird]

Oh, Come on people. Don't you understand that articles like this are run for the sole purpose of energizing the pro-Obama base? Liberal newspapers run stories like this all the time just to get you to the polls, so that their preferred candidate can win. And with some non-thinking Americans, it works. Reference this blog for instance.

[Joe]

Mccain is so fake. He says stuff just to fit the situation at hand. If he had some ethics and stood up to his beliefs i would have voted for him. For now obama seems like the real deal.

[Tom in TX]

I think Obama supports think they cannot loose. The moderates will have to teach them a lesson in voting patterns again. It's pretty ugly when the DNC cannot remember the last 10 elections and how they lost 7 of them. Time to wake up DNC, you're loosing a voting base!

[jodi]

I have been saying for at least a month now that if the DNC nominates Obama that this race will be similar to the Bush / Dukakis year. Kennedy and Kerry and Oprah and Caroline Kennedy all supported and stumped for Obama in CA but HILLARY WON. The same is true with MA. We the voters of MA disregarded the opinion of Kennedy and Kerry and voted overwhelmingly for Hillary. We the voters of MA will elect McCain if Obama is the choice. Although many of us are starting a write in campaign for Hillary. Either way Obama will lose MA and CA.

DNC SHOULD WAKE UP AND DO THEIR ONLY JOB WHICH IS TO NOMINATE THE MOST ELECTABLE CANDIDATE HILLARY CLINTON.

[Peter]

"I am californian and will vote for McCain"

Then you are lost

[Jose]

I am a Californian (Latino) and my entire family and I will NOT vote for McCain! Go Obama!

[jsquared]

uhh...
no
check out pollster.com
both dems hold a clear lead over Mccain

[becca]

i believe this is very true. i know many democrats in california...they all say between obama and mccain they will choose mccain. and the funny thing is that i also know a couple hard core republicans in california and they say between obama and mccain they will choose obama.

[David H]

If Obama is the nominee, he will lose Hispanics and Asians in California. He will also lose moderate Democrats. For Hispanics and Asians race will be a factor, and Obama's extreme liberalism will be a factor. Except on Iraq, McCain is just moderate enough to be an acceptable alternative to Obama.

Result -- he loses California.

If Hillary is the nominee California is a lock for the Democrats.

[Ferris]

This page is a major tease, don't bother mentioning until the poll comes out. Also, it better suggest that McCain is at least very close, like within a few points, otherwise I'll be diappointed with the LA Times.

[Matt]

tlhwraith: Run flash block. Then you'll have the last laugh, as all their ads are annoying flash-based horrors, it gets rid of them all. Don't see why I should waste my system resources on other people's ads. I don't mind static images, but flash ads and animated gifs are just evil.

[Joel]

I don't know how you fooled the Google aggregator, but well done, sir. What a pointless lede.

[nazcalito]

Here's a more interesting question -- what happens if candidates are nominated and something happens to the presidential candidate before the general -- dies or goes nuts or something. Does the VP candidate become the presidential candidate for that party?

[LiberalMindConservativeSoul]

I am a Californian. I would say there is no way that I will vote for a Republican in this election. However, Obama changed that recently. I will vote for John MacCain this time and it will be the first time that I vote for a Republican in any election. Obama and Obamania just drive me away.

[jodi]

THERE IS ALSO A LARGE HISPANIC POPULATION AND SINCE HISPANICS DO THEIR HOMEWORK THEY WILL NOT SUPPORT OBAMA.

I have said this would be the case in CA for at least a month in these blogs and now there are several TV pundants jumping in and figuring out that it is a fact. Good old boys at the DNC will lose if they nominate the empty suit Obama.

Obama is a good speaker when he has a script. We have watched many debates and it is clear that unless Hillary answers first Obama has a very hard time with new questions. McCain will thump Obama in debates on the issues. And McCain will not give Obama six chances to denounce things like Hillary did. McCain will just use the foolish responses in commercials.