Barack Obama plays a new number for V Day -- May 20

While everyone keeps running through the math of the Democratic primary battle, Barack Obama's campaign already has come up with its own bottom line: The contest effectively ends on May 20.

There are 217 pledged delegates up for grabs in the remaining six primaries, fewer than the number of as-yet-undeclared superdelegates. The Obama camp will bolster its efforts to court these votes this weekend, when it kicks off a 50-state voter registration drive.

Each of the remaining contests lines up neatly for one candidate or the other-- West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico for Clinton, and Oregon, South Dakota and Montana for Obama.

The Obama campaign is likely to start pressing for commitments from superdelegates -- if not right away, then after the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. At that point, under any likely scenario, Obama will lock up a majority of the pledged delegates.

Hari Sevugan, an Obama campaign spokesman, said today: "We are currently 33 delegates away from clinching a majority of all pledged delegates. Looking at this conservatively, coming out of the primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon, we expect to be able to go over the top by the night of May 20th.''

CBS 2, WBBM, in Chicago picked up on this today, declaring that "Barack Obama plans to claim the Democratic presidential nomination on the evening of May 20.''

Obama strategist David Axelrod told the station ...

that on May 20, when Oregon (with its mail-in voting system) declares "the polls" closed, Obama will have 1,627 pledged delegates -- a majority of those who were up for election throughout the process.

"To my knowledge, the party has never nominated anyone other than the winner of the most elected delegates,'' Axelrod said.

"The Obama campaign is planning a big victory rally on that date, in a scope well beyond the typical rally following past primary victories,'' the station notes.

"However, the (Hillary) Clinton camp claims the majority number would be 1,784 if the party decides to include delegates from the disputed states of Florida and Michigan.''

And, of course, when superdelegates are added in, a candidate currently needs to reach the 2,025 mark at the party's convention in Denver to claim the nomination (and perhaps more, depending on how the ongoing dispute over the rogue Michigan and Florida primaries is resolved).

-- Mike Dorning and Mark Silva

Mike Dorning and Mark Silva write for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune's Washington bureau.

Christi Parsons contributed to this report.

Comments

[BJ]

Obama supporters are short on "class". The don't realize how short-sighted this attitude is, and how it can impact their candidate. They typify what foreigners describe as "ugly Americans".

As a Clinton supporter, I am telling you to pls. not bother to offer her the vice-presidency, because we will never back an Obama/Clinton ticket. We will never vote for Obama.

I will vote for McCain, and gladly accept his tax breaks, thank you very much! :)

[Baron Hollister]

In response to BJ's comment. BJ, you apprently are not a democrat; nor do you care about the majority of Americans who will be negatively impacted by a McCain presidency.

[Barbara]

Short on "class?" We have an election to win! John McCain has no opposition. Your candidate ran a terrible campaign and couldn't manage her money. She provided no compelling reasons for why she should be President and many why she shouldn't, including the people she surrounded herself with, her failure to pay small vendors during the campaign and her comment about "obliterating Iran" all serve to point to why she should never be President.

[Bill]

Hillary is real classy. She fights dirty, and breaks her pleges. She also happens to be a pathological liar as well.

[Marks]

Obama should call V day already by Monday. Hillary's campaign won't listen to pundits-her campaign is over, not to Nobel WInner economists on her silly gas tax proposal and now won't listen to Michigan!

Clipped...

Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday rejected a compromise plan to seat Michigan's delegates to the national convention that would give 69 delegates to Clinton and 59 to Barack Obama.

"This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted," Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker said.

The Michigan Democratic Party had approved the plan and intended to submit it to the Democratic National Committee meeting on May 31.

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer said in a statement that the plan was a "good step toward a solution that unites Democrats and ensures that our state will not face a McCain presidency."

Clinton's campaign has maintained that the delegation should be allocated according to the vote in the Jan. 15 primary (73/55) but Obama's campaign had argued the delegation should be split between the two candidates (64/64) because he was not on the ballot.

Elizabeth Kerr, a spokeswoman for the Michigan Democratic Party, said the Clinton campaign's assertion that the votes "weren't honored" was "incorrect."

"This proposal honors the result of the January 15th primary but also takes into consideration that Obama's name was not on the ballot," she said.

In Florida,

Every time Hillary Clinton is on the ropes -- as she was Wednesday after lackluster showings in Indiana and North Carolina -- her fallback is always the same: Count Florida's votes.

But even her campaign acknowledges that the state can't deliver her the Democratic nomination.

Squeezing all of the votes out of Florida's Jan. 29 primary still leaves her trailing Barack Obama -- and Florida Democrats are willing to settle for half as many.

'It's time to move on,'' said Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, the Democratic leader in the Florida House and the first of the state's superdelegates to take sides since late February. ``I want to do anything I can to get people moving toward Obama and worrying about November. We've got to end this current race as quickly as possible.''

Other undecided elected officials and party leaders in Florida were in no rush to take sides. U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, who represents a conservative area in Florida's Panhandle, said he remains ''unpledged and uncommitted'' and plans to stay that way.

[See You McCaine]

BJ ------- I agree with you. The Obama supporters and the media have shown so much disrespect and made dishonest verbal statements about Hillary that no matter how she might work to bring us democrats together for Obama in the november election, I will not vote for Obama. ---------- Hello McCaine.

[Ryaple]

"They typify what foreigners describe as "ugly Americans"."

I would like to srongly object to this statement. I am a foreigner and I have never been so pumped up for a Obama presidency.

Trust me. When he wins the POTUS, people across the world will be celebrating on the streets. He kills in polls in the UK, in France, in Canada, in Japan, in Spain, in Isreal, throughout Asia and the middle east. In Africa, they will go crazy if he wins.

I am proud of my American roots today. I haven't been able to say that in a long time.

[SimpleRep]

Why is there a presidential primary from PUERTO RICO?

If they can't vote for the presidential elections in November, why in tarnations are they involved in selecting a primary candidate?

It's just as confusing as Hillary's promises.

[Peter Rivers]

Hillary didn't so much win that primary in Pa as ensure that the Democrats lost it. The time is long overdue for her to frankly admit
that her race is run. She cannot win the nomination from here. All she
can do is ensure that money pledged by people who want the Democrats
to win in November ends up saving a Republican from spending his money
and goodwill doing what she is doing.

So far, Obama has won

a) the popular vote
b) most states
c) most delegates
d) the fund raising campaign

And is

d) ahead in the opinion polls
e) seen by most Democrats as more electable

Hillary is seen by about 60% of the electorate as untrustworthy and
about 50% will never vote for her. Yet in a straight race with McCain,
Obama might well score as much as 60% -- he's that sort of candidate.

Any combination of circumstances that now saw Hillary get the
nomination would be an unmitigated disaster, unless you want a
Republican to win. In short, the party cannot in the end, put her
forward. The sooner she accepts that and moves on the better everyone
will be.

Democrats who want to see a Democrat win in November should write
their elected officials now, (especially those who are unpledged or
committed to Clinton), saying plainly that we will not tolerate this
contest going on any longer, and that if Clinton gets the nomination,
we will not give her campaign the time of day, much less our votes or
cash. We must make it clear to them that if the Democrats don't win in
November, those who failed to come out against Clinton must bear their
share of the blame.

We must do it in our tens of thousands and we must do it now.

PeteR

[john denver jr]

the fact is why has hillary clinton allowed herself to be a candidate in michigan and florida. as a senator and leader she should not allow rules and laws of the party to be flouted. in fact, if the party has been true to its principles, hillary should not even be allowed to campaign for the presidential nominee. now what is she talking about counting those votes in florida and michigan. she should know better what she should say and what she should not. at the moment, she doesnt and that's not what we want as the American president.

[andrew]

Hillary will win democratic nominee because her victory came to the obama doorstep state -Indiana . Obama will lose in virginia , washington state ,wisconsin, District of columbia elections if there are democratic primary election in these states now because white people from these states don't like obama now because his paster comment and his bitter comment. America never accept black democratic nominee because crimes will increase caused by black people if president is black. Clinton also won core traditional big democratic states and swing states. Super deligates will choose hillary because she won core traditional big democratic states and swing states .
Supre deligates should choose hillary because she won more electorial votes(like in general election) than obama.Obama should quit the race because he didn't win core traditional democratic states and swing states and white people.

[Rebecca]

Wow... really Andrew? "America never accept black democratic nominee because crimes will increase caused by black people if president is black." I've never been more proud to be a white supporter of Obama than now, after reading your blatant racist comment.

[Susan Fowler]

Yes. It is unlikely Clinton can do anything but further divide the party and evidently it is of no consequence to her. Although both candidates have said they will "come together" no matter who wins, Clinton's campaign has been so negative she hs rendered herself useless as a supporter should she have to do so.

She has demonstrated a self-serving streak that has ripped through the party. Should there be a coup at the national convention, I will not vote for anyone. Hillary's campaign fund sources are objectionable enough for me to question how far she can really stray from business as usual.

[Adnora]

I am starting to think that these so-called democrats who say they'll vote McCain over Obama are among that baffling and self-destructive crew who voted for GW Bush...twice! Their nihilism is beyond comprehension.

I guess they all long for WW3, which their gal Hill Bill or the republican Bush-clone would promptly serve up if elected.

[Mary]

andrew: you typify the "uneducated white american" that clinton has cast her spell over...and quite frankly, good. good for obama. your ignorance, and spelling errors, can go down in history as the reason she "lost" the nomination. Yes, so please, keep spewing your pro-hillary ignorance -- it will only spurn other to vote opposite of it

[American146]

Please all of your who are saying "If this candidate wins I won't vote," or "If that candidate wins, I'll vote for McCain," just stop it.

Are you really so vindictive that you would settle for four more years of George Bush policies rather than vote for a solid democratic contender? Isn't the economy and slogging stock market bad enough for you yet? Aren't gasoline, heating oil, and grocery prices high enough? Do you like it that as a percentage of your earnings, you pay more taxes than the multi-millionaires and billionaires? Haven't enough young American men women died in Iraq?

Let's get real and move forward. John McCain will continue the republican's streak of worst presidents ever, starting with Bush senior. He has nothing new or helpful to offer.

P.S. I realize that many of the people who are posting these things weren't going to vote democratic anyway, but just in case one of you is a sincere democratic voter, please think about the above.

[KB]

I dont understand short sided people who say they will never vote for Obama. If he is not the nominee I would still vote for Clinton. Is it becasue he's black?

[Cynic]

Hey, See You McCaine (actually, it's McCain),
I was gonna address your statement about "dishonest verbal statements about Hillary", but I was busy ducking sniper fire...

[Charlie]

The time has come for Obama to become the sole Democratic Party candidate.
This Independent will vote for him.

If you would rather vote for Jeorge McSaim, and promote a third term for George Bush's policies, I have to wonder about your commitment to your planet, your country and your future, let alone your party.

Michigan and Florida are out, and should staty out. Look to your state's governemnt and party commitee if you want to complain.

[DS]

Hey BJ,

You make over $250,000 a year? Otherwise don't expect a tax break for McCain. You support overturning Roe Vs. Wade, then vote for McCain. You support saying in Iraq, then vote McCain.

Oh, your mad the Clintons lost....that's good enough to forfit your values for.

$1,000.00 Cash Back. Vote Obama.

[RobinL]

I really love the self-righteous, indignant "Clinton supporters" crawling out of the woodwork and threatening to take their votes to McCain lest we Democrats do their bidding and help Clinton steal the election.

Note: YOU ARE REPUBLICANS AND ALWAYS HAVE BEEN! And we are not going to allow Republicans in Democratic clothing to set our Party's agenda!

[D GRACE]

Hillary cannot divide the party it is already divided.and it cannot win in the fall with Obama

[Ron M]

The problem with McCain and his tax breaks is that the corporations will be the beneficiaries of his plans. What we will be the beneficiaries of will be higher inflation. Only the people in the top one per cent or less will benefit from that economic environment. 401K's will suffer.

These are tough times no matter who is president. McCain is an economic cretin. There are few who can afford him.

[Keep wasting your $$$]

Hillary has now loaned her campaign 11 million from her pocket. Is she trying to buy this presidency? I thought the FEC don't allow candidates to use their money to influence the election. How is she going to get this money back to pay herself back? I dont think her supporters will be that stupid to waste their money by funding her loosing campaign. I believe people that are seen in her nowadays rallies are mostly republicans who are just prolonging this primaries but will not give a penny to her camp but just their votes to tear down the Dems. It's time to bow down Billary and let the DEMs win the house come Nov.

[John]

The Democratic party no longer has room under its big tent for intolerant bigots and race baiters. The Republican party, despite its anti-slavery roots,these days seems to have plenty of empty seats in its anti-gay, anti-women, anti-progress, anti-secular, pro-fundamentalist, pro-Armageddon pro-theocracy wings for all those Clintonites who can't cope. We real Democrats can only hope that someday you'll choose love and compassion over hate and we will gladly welcome you back.