Polls look ahead to fall showdown between Barack Obama and John McCain

Yes, there are still states -- and a territory -- to vote, Democratic delegates to select, superdelegates to decide and conventions to be held, but it's hard not to peek ahead to the fall matchup. You can make your own presumptions about whether the Dems will go with Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, but for the sake of argument, we'll presume it's Obama.

And polls, fickle though they may be, show that the general election could be just as tight as the Democratic primaries in crucial swing states where Obama's race and perceived class work against him (witness Kentucky). The tallies maintained at Real Clear Politics give a broader sense of the challenge for Obama and for John McCain.

You can go over there and play, but the overview is the latest state poll aggregates give the current advantage (some of these are within the margin of error) to McCain in Ohio, Florida and Missouri and the advantage to Obama in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (though McCain led in the most recent poll) and Iowa with Michigan essentially a dead heat. 

Now take those poll numbers over to an interactive electoral college map and the advantage is: Nobody. Under that scenario, with Michigan a virtual tie and polls too erratic in New Mexico to count, Obama and McCain would be separated by four electoral votes and both would need Michigan to put them over the 270 threshold.

Let the fun begin. Oh, wait -- it already has.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[TruthIsTreasonComplianceIsPatriotic]

McCain will be utterly slaughtered going up against Obama. I'm not even a fan of Obama or McCain (or Hillary) but it's obvious that when these two are in a debate together McCain is going to look like the ignorant, lying and senile scumbag that he really is when standing next to Obama who is at least intelligent, a great speaker and doesn't stoop to jingoism and the lowest common denominator.

It was hilarious when McCain was constantly stumped by Ron Paul on the debate stage. Expect to see more of the same. McCain isn't fit to manage a hot dog stand let alone the most powerful nation in the world.

[PacificGatePost]

CLINTON AND CAPITULATION

It is NOT OVER until someone crosses the threshold in required delegates. Until then, the process should be allowed to proceed.

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/05/clinton-and-capitulation.html

It would be undemocratic to do otherwise.

[Deanie]

Our country is in a dangerous condition right now. I think, Obama is a dangerous man. Please folks, recall what the Bible says about the anti-christ!!

[David]

"Our country is in a dangerous condition right now. I think, Obama is a dangerous man. Please folks, recall what the Bible says about the anti-christ!!

Posted by: Deanie | May 22, 2008 at 08:28 AM"

There's your typical Obama basher, people. If you want to follow that kind of thinking, go right ahead.

[Lana]

You don't have to believe Obama is the anti-Christ to be concerned about what his presidency could mean. I really liked him in the beginning. I am a Hillary supporter, but I could have voted for Obama. He did start out as a different kind of candidate with loftier ideals for our country. Somewhere along the way, his supporters and surrogates, especially, became so sensitive to everything that is said, trying to read something racially offensive into every remark by Democratic leaders who have also been leaders in the civil rights movement. African-Americans have turned against so many of the people that have worked hard on their behalf. The last straw for me was the Obama campaign's instant and negative reaction to Hillary's comment about RFK. They intentionally took that out of context to construe some dark suggestion rather than the point she was making, which was that the nomination process has run well into June in the past. Obama and his supporters have become so egocentric and narcissistic. They are the PC police twist every comment into a racial slur or slight. Like Carly Simon's song, "You're so vain. I bet you think this song is about you...." When President Bush was making a policy statement in Israel, though his name wasn't called, Obama immediately thought the statement was about him. When Hillary made the RFK comment in an editorial board meeting, not a campaign speech, he thought it was aimed at him. I'm so tired of apologies already. Imagine what his presidency would be like? No one could criticize him for anything without having their whole life and career tarnished with a racist label when there are points of honest disagreement. Many people will not vote for Senator Obama because he is way more liberal than the average American. That is a fact and has nothing to do with race. That being said, this process did not start out about race, but it has evolved into a racial divide because of all the finger pointing and hostility. It is most unfortunate.

[Keith]

Since the economy is in Shambles, it is very unlikely mcain or any republican could win...Unless they were pitted against a dem who goofs up.
Hillary is a great dem, but she has goofed up several times.
Obama is a great speaker and seems to have an answer for most things.
If a dem gets elected, there is sure to be tax increases (Since we owe a lot of money for Irag/afg) we also need to pay back the gov for the rebate checks-No free lunch folks. Disaster relief and so on.
If a Mcain (only rep.) gets elected, he will prob try to keep taxes low, and may croak before he leaves office. (He is over 70) He will also get us more involved in global affairs and continue to use the US as a "police state"
Obama worries me a bit since he is a great speaker smooth talker and we all know actions speak louder than words.
Hillary might be able to handle the pos if she thinks before she speaks, plus she has the opportunity to use her husband as an advisor.

IMHO we need to find a 4th person to run. The 3 that are left, would do well if they were combined into one. Otherwise either the poor or rich will get hurt in the end.
Yes I did not include middle class cause they are a thing of the past.

Hopefully whoever we pick will be the best for America