A Barack Obama surprise in New Jersey poll results

Funny how that recent memo from Hillary Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes recapping all sorts of positive poll numbers for her didn't include a survey from her neck of the woods.

A late April poll of New Jersey voters by Braun Research found -- no real surprise -- that either Clinton or Barack Obama would win the state and its 15 electoral votes in November against John McCain. The surprise was that Obama ran substantially ahead of McCain, more so than Clinton. He beat the presumptive Republican presidential nominee by 24 percentage points; her margin was 14 points.

And here was the real shocker: In a state where Clinton, senator from neighboring New York, won the Feb. 5 primary by 10 points, 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents now said they wanted to see Obama as the party's nominee, compared with 38% who picked Clinton.

Less than three months after Clinton's primary win, "some New Jersey voters feel buyer’s remorse,” said poll director Patrick Murray.

The survey was conducted largely before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's rancorous session at the National Press Club in Washington last week caused major political turmoil for Obama, so perhaps a snapshot taken this week of voter attitudes in the Garden State might not be so rosy for him.

By the same token, the Braun poll was taken in the immediate wake of Clinton's intensive campaign -- and solid primary win -- in Pennsylvania, a state that shares several media markets with a fair chunk of New Jersey.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[Steve Nesich]

Amazing how Senator Obama continues to do as well, or better, than both Clinton and McCain, nationally, and in several key states, even after this media-manufactured "Wright controversy".

If I were a John McCain supporter, I'd be worried about November. If the Republican attacks against Obama still haven't worked against him, think of how much harder it will be to beat him in the fall, after people get to know him better and feel more comfortable with him.

I'm old enough to remember how "the extremist" Ronald Reagan was given "no chance" to win, as late as the spring of 1980. Once people got to know him, that all changed and he won narrowly. Watch the same thing happen this year with Obama.

[Jim H]

And "Braun Research" is who? I believe Zogby said that his polling showed Obama up 13 points on the day of the California primary. Gee, only 24 points off.

[Christopher London]

Fraud thy name is Clinton. Hillary's name is increasingly becoming mud in the New York tri-state area. The Democratic Machine that got behind Clinton did New Yorkers a huge disservice. When Obama is President, Schumer, Cuomo, Rangel and others are going to have to make up for supporting a completely fraudulent and corrupt candidate. If Hillary ever seeks re-election in New York, she will have ignited opposition with the deceptive, manipulative and fraudulent campaign she ran against Obama. VOTE FRAUD IN NY increased her margins in her "home state". Hillary was going to get embarrased were it not for those working in a corrupt manner to insure her double digit victory. The Democratic Party will need to rebuild itself in the face of Hillary's using New York and our leaders for her Blind Ambition. All of Manhattan Society that lined up behind Clinton are going to find that they are outsiders unless they turn away from Clinton, step to the plate and push Obama over the hump. If NewYork's political leaders will do that instead of continuing to support a corrupt, divisive, unqualified candidate like Hillary perhaps New Yorkers will have a voice. Clinton will not get re-elected in NY. Her career is virtually over. She has lost credibility with a wide swath of the American public who now see her as a pandering, lying fraud. The mask is now off so it matters not if she continues to wear clown face, red lipstick, fake blue contacts and dyed blonde hair.

[ApostasyUSA]

See.......no amount of propaganda will convince me that Barack Obama won't win the general election.

Hillary supported NAFTA, the war in Iraq, and now she wants to cut gas tax for a few months even after economist say it won't help most Americans.

"Expert Support For Gas Tax Holiday Appears Nonexistent"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/expert-support-for-gas-ta_n_99474.html

Hillary might talk a good game but she makes the wrong decisions....Clinton is consistently demeaning, belittling, snide, distorting and even lying. Her campaign is built upon appealing to the lowest common denominator.

I want a really, really smart person in the White House......so Obama is who I support. I hope Obama wins in Indy and in NC, then we can put this mess to rest and get on with what matters like the war in Iraq and our energy problems.....also I like Obama’s deportment...and I think that it is important for bringing people together....which is what America needs right now....

My hopes and dreams of a united country are with Barack Obama. The Dems win in 08....there is no debate..

[GromytTheDog]

I'd also say that NYers, via their hometown newspaper the NYT, have HUGE "buyer's remorse."

As evidence of that, I cite "The Low Road," the NYT editorial that was as close as the paper could come to rescinding its endorsement of Senator Clinton without actually doing it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html

I'd wager there's also huge "buyer's remorse" with regard to Clinton and her campaign here in California.

So there goes her so-called Big State "advantage."

[Chuckamok]

Gasp ... wheeze ... the Hill-Rod Relentless Ambition Carnival lurches along.

Tossing all that kitchen-sink stuff must be getting tiring.

Voters in Indiana and NC: put an end to this. Kick the Clinton Machine to the curb and lets get on with WINNING IN NOVEMBER.

[toby]

New Jeresy doesn't matter. Ohio, Penn., Florida, Michigan and even California matters.

[James]

No amount of spin can change reality. The Rev. Wright issue is taking Obama down.

People get it. Obama did not recognize (or condoned and accepted) hate-speech. He is not post-racial. He is not a unifier. He is a con-man.

[Victoria]

I can believe it. I live in NYC. Everyone in my office who voted for Hillary in the NY/NJ and CT primary has buyer's remorse.

Hillary Clinton: Worst. Candidate. Ever.

[JERRY WAYNE WILSON]

I can't remember if I send this to you yesterday. If so, I apologize. Be sure to note Obama's racial make-up.

Whatever your voting decision is....you HAVE TO READ this about this FRAUD running for office....
He's far more dangerous than even Clinton!!!!!!

1.) Selma Got Me Born
LIAR, your parents felt safe enough to have you in 1961
Selma had no effect on your birth, as Selma was in 1965.
(Google 'Obama Selma' for his full March 4, 2007 speech and articles about its various untruths.)
2.) Father Was A Goat Herder
LIAR, he was a privileged, well educated youth, who went on to work with the Kenyan Government.
3.) Father Was A Proud Freedom Fighter
LIAR, he was part of one of the most corrupt and violent governments Kenya has ever had.
4.) My Family Has Strong Ties To African Freedom
LIAR, your cousin Raila Odinga has created mass violence in attempting to overturn a legitimate election in 2007, in Kenya.
It is the first widespread violence in decades. The current government is pro-American but Odinga wants to overthrow it
and establish Muslim Sharia law. Your half-brother, Abongo Obama, is Odinga's follower.
You interrupted your NH campaigning to speak to Odinga on the phone.
Check out the following link for verification of that....and for more. http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080115/issues.html?.v=1
Obama's cousin Odinga in Kenya ran for president and tried to get Sharia muslim law in place there.
When Odinga lost the elections, his followers have burned Christians' homes and then burned men, women and
children alive in a Christian church where they took shelter. Obama SUPPORTED his cousin before the election
process here started. Google Obama and Odinga and see what you get. No one wants to know the truth.

5.) My Grandmother Has Always Been A Christian
LIAR, she does her daily Salat prayers at 5 am according to her own interviews.
Not to mention, Christianity wouldn't allow her to have been one of 14 wives to 1 man.
6.) My Name is African Swahili
LIAR, your name is Arabic & 'Baraka' (from which Barack came) means 'blessed' in that language.
Hussein is also Arabic and so is Obama.
Barack Hussein Obama is not half black. If elected, he would be the first Arab-American President, not the first black President.
Barack Hussein Obama is 50% Caucasian from his mother's side and 43.75% Arabic and 6.25% African Negro from his father's side.
While Barack Hussein Obama's father was from Kenya, his father's family was mainly Arabs.
Barack Hussein Obama's father was only 12.5% African Negro and 87.5% Arab (his father's birth certificate even states he's Arab, not African Negro). From....and for more....go to..... http://www.arcadeathome.com/newsboy.phtml?Barack_Hussein_Obama_-_Arab-American,_only_6.25%25_African
7.) I Never Practiced Islam
LIAR, you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years, until your wife made you change, so you could run for office.
4-3-08 Article 'Obama was 'quite religious in islam'' http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=60559
8.) My School In Indonesia Was Christian
LIAR, you were registered as Muslim there and got in trouble in Koranic Studies for making faces (check your own book).
February 28, 2008.
Kristoff from the New York Times a year ago: Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it'll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as 'one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.'
This is just one example of what Pamela is talking about when she says 'Obama's narrative is being altered, enhanced and manipulated to whitewash troubling facts.'
9.) I Was Fluent In Indonesian
LIAR, not one teacher says you could speak the language.
10.) Because I Lived In Indonesia, I Have More Foreign Experience
LIAR, you were there from the ages of 6 to 10, and couldn't even speak the language.
What did you learn, how to study the Koran and watch cartoons.
11.) I Am Stronger On Foreign Affairs
LIAR, except for Africa (surprise) and the Middle East (bigger surprise), you have never been anywhere else on the planet and thus have NO experience with our closest allies.
12.) I Blame My Early Drug Use On Ethnic Confusion
LIAR, you were quite content in high school to be Barry Obama, no mention of Kenya and no mention of struggle to identify - your classmates said you were just fine.
13.) An Ebony Article Moved Me To Run For Office
LIAR, Ebony has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.
14.) A Life Magazine Article Changed My Outlook On Life
LIAR, Life has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.
15.) I Won't Run On A National Ticket In '08
LIAR, here you are, despite saying, live on TV, that you would not have enough experience by then, and you are all about having experience first.
16.) Present Votes Are Common In Illinois
LIAR, they are common for YOU, but not many others have 130 NO VOTES.
17.) Oops, I Misvoted
LIAR, only when caught by church groups and democrats, did you beg to change your misvote.
18.) I Was A Professor Of Law
LIAR, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
19.) I Was A Constitutional Lawyer
LIAR, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
20.) Without Me, There Would Be No Ethics Bill
LIAR, you didn't write it, introduce it, change it, or create it.
21.) The Ethics Bill Was Hard To Pass
LIAR, it took just 14 days from start to finish.
22.) I Wrote A Tough Nuclear Bill
LIAR, your bill was rejected by your own party for its pandering and lack of all regulation - mainly because of your Nuclear Donor, Exelon, from which David Axelrod came.
23.) I Have Released My State Records
LIAR, as of Mar, 2008, state bills you sponsored or voted for have yet to be released, exposing all the special interests hidden within.
24.) I Took On The Asbestos Altgeld Gardens Mess
LIAR, you were part of a large group of people who remedied Altgeld Gardens. You failed to mention anyone else but yourself, in your books.
25.) My Economics Bill Will Help America
LIAR, your 111 economic policies were just combined into a proposal which lost 99-0, and even YOU voted against your own bill.
26.) I Have Been A Bold Leader In Illinois
LIAR, even your own supporters claim to have not seen BOLD action on your part.
27.) I Passed 26 Of My Own Bills In One Year
LIAR, they were not YOUR bills, but rather handed to you, after their creation by a fellow Senator, to assist you in a future bid for higher office.
28.) No One Contacted Canada About NAFTA
LIAR, the Canadian Government issued the names and a memo of the conversation your campaign had with them.
29.) I Am Tough On Terrorism
LIAR, you missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction of Israel.
30.) I Am Not Acting As President Yet
LIAR, after the NAFTA Memo, a dead terrorist in the FARC, in Colombia, was found with a letter stating how you and he were working together on getting FARC recognized officially.
31.) I Didn't Run Ads In Florida
LIAR, you allowed national ads to run 8-12 times per day for two weeks - and you still lost.
32.) I Won Michigan - LIAR, no you didn't.
33.) I won Nevada - LIAR, no you did not.
34.) I Want All Votes To Count - LIAR, you said let the delegates decide.
35.) I Want Americans To Decide
LIAR, you prefer caucuses that limit the vote, confuse the voters, force a public vote, and only operate during small windows of time.
36.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate - LIAR, you passed 26, most of which you didn't write yourself.
37.) My Campaign Was Extorted By A Friend
LIAR, that friend is threatening to sue if you do not stop saying this. Obama has stopped saying this.
38.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics - LIAR, you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer from running against you.
39.) I Don't Take PAC Money - LIAR, you take loads of it.
40.) I don't Have Lobbyists - LIAR, you have over 47 lobbyists, and counting.
41.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad
LIAR, your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon.
42.) My Campaign Never Took Over MySpace
LIAR, Tom, who started MySpace issued a warning about this advertising to MySpace clients.
43.) I Inspire People With My Words - LIAR, you inspire people with other people's words.
44.) I Have Passed Bills In The U.S. Senate
LIAR, you have passed A BILL in the U.S. Senate - for Africa, which shows YOUR priorities.
45.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq
LIAR, you weren't in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time, unlike Kucinich, who seems to be out gutting you Obama. You also seem to be stepping back from your departure date - AGAIN.
46.) I Have Always Supported Universal Health Care
LIAR, your plan leaves us all to pay for the 15,000,000 who don't have to buy it.

God Bless America and Her Defenders!

[rAUL PEDRAZA]

My name is Raul Pedraza I am a Cuban American U.S. Army veteran, my grandfather Rafael fought in the WW1 in the battle of the Marne, my son Jorge just returned from Iraq after having served proudly in the 82nd Airborne in Tikrit.

I am also very very proudly married to an african-american woman.

I have absolutely no doubt about Barack Obama's patriotism and find him inspirational and ready to become Commander in Chief. I prefer the candidate of true integrity who can admit a mistake unlike Hillary and her vote for the Iraq war and sniper fire stories. Supporting John McCain will merely let the disastrous results of the George W. years continue to drag us down.

I use my real name in this blog instead of a pseudonym because I am very proud to be supporting Barack Obama for President and wish to dispel a few of the myths that the media continually pours down our throats. No not all Cubans support the Republicans, No not all Latinos favor Hillary over Barack, No not all Army veterans are for John McCain though we do honor his sacrifice it does not make him uniquely qualified to be our leader.

I have contributed all the hard earned dollars legally allowed me to support the man whom I had the great privilege of meeting at an inner city youth center in Miami's Overtown neighborhood.

Barack Obama is the real deal folks and I pray our great nation is smart enough to give us a President of integrity and Intellect two traits sorely missing as of late.

Again my name is Raul Pedraza and I wholeheartedly support Barack Obama for President of the Untied States.

Tommorow Jersey then the country!!

[Clarke D]

Hillary and the nuts around her (Carville, Penn, Wolfson, George, and Charles) are like angry drunk people trying to pick fights. I admire Obama for continuing to run a "sober" campaign and staying on the high road. God knows Clinton has a closet full of skeletons that he could easily open to use against her.

[DoTheMath]

I have also seen poll results since February 5 that show Obama ahead of Clinton in California.

February 5 was very early in this primary. Clinton still had a huge name-recognition advantage, and since there were so many primaries on one day, the candidates couldn't possibly campaign intensively in all of those states.

If the superdelegates are paying attention to polls, I hope they're paying attention to ALL the polls.

[Raji Rab]

been ambitiously ruthless in self recognition..Done & seen more damage that helping the cause..Is this extent all out for public service..why..whats the motivation..where does this stop..

[economist]

Somebody should ask Clinton when (WHEN not IF) she plans to invade IRAN.

[Robert]

Let's not forget the number of minority voters in NJ, of course if a caucasion votes against Obama he/she is a racist.

[Speedy Campbell]

It is difficult for me to understand why the people of New York would elect a carpet bagger from Arkansas to be their Senator instead of someone who had served New York all his or her life.

Do the Clintons really have enough power to dictate how New Yorkers vote?

Her "Experience" audacity is an embarassment. Her pervert husband is an even bigger embarassment to New York!

When are New Yorkers going to wake up?

[Cully]

Every time I see one of her "operatives" trying to explain how Senator Clinton will win the nomination, these people give me the creeps. The spokesperson(s) that give the media interviews look like they could be on the Sopranos. I can picture them in the War Room collectively conjuiring up a press release. Again, creepy.

[A Westchester County New York Resident]

Years ago when the Clintons were in the White House they were often referred to as VIP - (Vicious Insufferable Peolpe)
that title has not changed one bit. They are true to that title.
H.Clinton as senator only supported causes in Westchester that she would personally benefit from. The regular every day people could not even apporach her, her office never followed through one any phone calls to her office for help.
This is who will be ready on day one, for what?

[EV]

The accuracy of polls depends on whether the sampling is representative of the state. When we look at ACTUAL primary results, the last state to have voted is Pennsylvania, which voted overwhelmingly against Obama despite his 3-to-1 spending advantage.

Not only did Obama spend the most money, but he spent the most time in Pennsylvania trying to meet the voters, who rejected him by double-digit margins. So it's not true that the more voters get to know him, the more they like him.

When we look at the general election, however, no matter how many red states Obama puts in play, he absolutely cannot win without:

FLORIDA
MICHIGAN
OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
CALIFORNIA (Obama's weakness and McCain's strength among Latino/Catholic voters put CA in play.)

[Michael]

I think the American public is beginning to understand that after months of trying to destroy Barack Obama, all the Clintons and their very powerful supporters in the media and the Democratic party could pin on him was (weak) guilt by association and some lame controversies about flag pins, and verbal gaffe about rural America being bitter. All this while McCain said he'd stay in Iraq 100 years and implied the Iraq war was about oil, Hillary padded her resume with lies about Bosnia and Northern Ireland and lied about NAFTA, and blustered about obliterating Iran.

Furthermore, rather than a free ride as Clinton claimed earlier in the campaign, Obama was getting scrutiny that seemed far beyond what was warranted.

In two days we'll find out whether the people of Indiana and North Carolina can finally put an end to this long and divisive campaign.

[LATINOVOTER1]

I voted for Hillary in California, BUT I ALSO HAVE BUYERS REMORSE. I think Barack Obama is different, ambitious, smart and a lot more trustworthy than both Hillary and John Mccain. For people to think he can not win the nomination in the fall, is foolish.

[zeporah]

Mrs Clinton is my senate representative. I reside in Western New York, and to date she has not been a "workhorse," but rather an "elite showhorse." When she ran for office in 2,000, she promised that she would work to bring new industry to our depressed, region. Eight years later, and thirty thousand jobs less, nothing has happened. She rarely shows her face here. Obviously, she must be catering to her elite friends downstate.
She is a fraud, and her machinations are intolerable. She continues to state that she would not have gone to
Reverend Wright's church, yet when her husband needed spiritual counsel during the Lewinsky debacle, they called in Jesse Jackson, who had just recently called Jews in New York "Hymies." What a hypocrite!!!
She is the worst politico of our generations!!!!!!

[JQ Public]

Obama is playing all his gullible supporters for fools. There was a legislator in Pennsylvania a few years ago who denied killing a homeless Vietnam veteran in the state capital during a hit-and-run. I recall many of his supporters initially siding with him but later he pled guilty to the crime, got a few years in jail and later tried to get his conviction overturned even though the the evidence showed the car he fraudulently filed an insurance claim on and turned in to the dealership ahead of it's lease expiration had the dead man's blood and hair in the undercarriage and wheel wells. A scant few of his supporters continued to vehemently deny his guilt, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. That's who you Obama suppporters remind me of, people who even though they have evidence he is a liar, are in denial. After he is more blantantly exposed as a lying politician you'll continue to defend him, like those defending Bush/Cheyney and still believing there is a connection between Al Quaida, Iraq and the Events of 911 even though the evidence shows there is no connection. I feel so sorry for you blind followers, how many times do you have to hear this guy's intentional falsehoods and political double-talk until you see this "emperor has no clothes?" When Nixon resigned in disgrace after the Watergate scandal, a poll showed hundreds of thousands of people denied voting for him, even though Nixon won the 1972 election with the then biggest landslide in history. When Obama is further revealed as the obvious lying two-bit snake most of us with some common sense see him to be, we'll see some polls that nobody admitted to voting for him and his disapproval rating will be lower than Bush's 79%, we'll still be stuck with him and the Repubs will take back the POTUS and gas will cost $10/a gallon. Thanks for swallowing Obama's empty promises of "hope" and "change we have to believe in" and keeping this crook-in-sheep's-clothing viable for more who are foolish enough to buy his brand of snake oil. I don't want to say "I told you so," I hate that.

[BT]

I think most people can see that Hillary only cares about herself. She can't win. She can only lend her credibility to GOP propaganda by using it as a hail mary pass for her dead-end campaign. It's time to give her the boot.