The N.C./Indiana quandary: which matters more?

In the Pennsylvania primary, it was all about the margin.

It was clear that barring a major political upheaval, Hillary Clinton was going to win the state. The question became: Would she do so by enough to legitimately boast about it? (She did).

In the dueling May 6 primaries, a new measuring stick is being applied: Which one is more important?

The conventional wisdom, as of now, tilts toward Indiana. North Carolina -- with its large black population and its notable enclaves of highly educated voters of all types -- is widely seen as a gimme for Barack Obama, in pure win/lose terms. As was the case for Clinton in Pennsylvania, attention will be paid to how easily he prevails.

Indiana, by contrast, is seen as much more competitive -- and thus a bigger symbolic prize. Part of it borders Illinois and a much of its population is within the Chicago media market, giving Obama an edge. But it is predominantly white and has lots of small towns, which works to Clinton's advantage.

Obama, in a characterization he may now rue, said while campaigning in the state earlier this month that it "may end up being the tiebreaker." That will be thrown in his face over the next week and a half, even if he did use the conditional.

Still, the astute crew at MSNBC who churn out the network's daily "First Read" political note offered a contrary view Wednesday on how to assess the next Democratic faceoff. Here's what they wrote:

"So which May 6 state is more important to Clinton -- Indiana or North Carolina? Sure, many in the media (and in the Clinton campaign) are pointing to Indiana, because the race is likely to be very close. But isn't North Carolina the opportunity for Clinton to either prove or disprove momentum? The state isn't just a pothole for Clinton in her comeback bid, it's a potential sinkhole. It's a big state, not some small red state. And the gains Clinton made in the popular vote, thanks to Pennsylvania, could be wiped away completely in the Tar Heel State. And because the popular vote is now the most important measuring stick to the Clinton campaign, they have to figure out a way to either pull the upset or make the Obama victory margin so close that it will serve as a wakeup call to the superdelegates. It's been said a bunch of times, but we'll say it again: Obama can't seem to convince Clinton to get out until he beats her in a place that demographically favors her, and she can't convince superdelegates that he's really unelectable unless she beats him in a place that demographically favors him. And since the burden still remains with Clinton to catch up, it may mean North Carolina is actually more make-or-break than Indiana."

It will be worth watching which state is seen by most pundits as "The Big One" on that first Tuesday in May. Perhaps it will end up a draw. After all, the bottom line remains pretty basic.

Obama has to triumph in North Carolina, or face a barrage of doubts over whether his political magic truly has faded.

Clinton has to win Indiana, or face a renewed clamor that she is merely postponing the inevitable demise of her candidacy.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Buj]

Right on. Lets see if the tide is really turning as she claims it with the PA win. Let see, now that she, with her name-brand and so-called momentum can "CLOSE THE DEAL".

[fredricwilliams]

Why is it that black votes are less valued than white? North Carolina has a much larger population than Indiana, but it is the whiter state that is the important contest. In other words, black people will vote for Obama, so the real test must be can he defeat a white person in a white state.

Doesn't this sound a little bit like racism?

And as for Obama's failure to win "key constituencies," specifically blue-collar workers . . . that is, poorer and less-educated white folks . . . isn't this segmenting of the electorate just a second-hand way of saying most poor whites won't vote for an uppity black?

At the root of all this is Hillary Clinton's awareness that her chance of winning, small though it now appears (amazingly small when one considers the advantage of her eight years sitting around the White House), depends on white women, and, to a lesser extent, those white folks who won't vote for a black man, no matter how charismatic. So far, that hasn't been enough.

This Race for the President appears to be a race to divide the nation. Black or white, man or woman, we should be above all that -- and the media should not be suckered into looking where the Clinton campaign chooses to shine the bright white light.

[Placentia, CA]

HILLARY!!!
HILLARY!!!
HILLARY!!!

[JR Geygan]

It strikes me that if the roles were reversed in this race, that the Clinton machine would be outraged that Obama had not dropped out at this point. I can hear the argument from their camp, "Obama is dividing the party, weakening the chances for an ultimate Clinton victory as a result of the negative campaigning going on, and by the way, 11 wins in a row, ahead in the popular vote, outspending by 3:1 with substantially more cash reserves...". But for some reason the Democratic Party establishemnt is giving Clinton repeated second chances and in the process diminishing the Democrats odds of a November victory. Where is the real party leadership? Isn't it time for the Democrats to get organized, unite and focus on the real goal here?

Why is it now that we are willing to allow Super delegates to decide when "the people have spoken"?

[self sycophant]

Obama turned a 20+ percentage gap in Pennsylvania into 10. He wasn't going to win and nobody ever thought otherwise- THESE WERE CLINTON'S CORE DEMOGRAPHIC, AND HE WON MORE THAN HALF OF THEM OVER IN ONE MONTH, all while being lambasted with new sound bites and BS about lapel pins. Clinton bragging about winning by 10 pts is like finding $20 in your pocket and acting like you're $20 richer- She's fooling herself.
The onus is on Clinton. Let's see if she can do the same. Can she halve his lead in NC? Can Clinton actually win votes from those who wouldn't have already voted for her?
That, friends, is a real test.

[SKS]

It won't matter if Obama wins both NC and Indiana. Hillary will stay in. It has become painfully obvious to everyone except the MSM and the SD's that she is positioning herself to run in 2012.

I knew the democrats would screw up what was potentially in the bag.

So typical.

Americans have outgrown the two party system.

[ladydet8650]

Hillary will stay in the race until every state is counted and recognized. I see nothing wrong with this, except the negative campaigning is hurting the democratic party. As far as Michigan being counted, it should be split in half, because Obama's and Edward's name was not on the ballot. Many people voted for Hillary and now supports Obama, some people didn't bother to vote because they was told it was not going to count. Florida, had all names on the ballot and should be counted. I am a michigander, and a democrat, who voted for Hillary and now is supporting Obama.

[FloridaAmerican]

NOT ... N.C. or Indiana! As in past FLORIDA is the make or break state. IF the party will not seat our delegates then they can not win in the general election. The primary date that is called a violation was set by A REPUBLICAN STATE SENATE + A REPUBLICAN STATE HOUSE + A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR ..... ! Then our VOTERS are punished? The date was and is NOT the fault of Florida voters. IN FACT ... It may be a republican DIRTY TRICK to salvage victory from certain defeat for McBush. Well FLORIDA'S votes WILL count in the fall and those votes will NOT be for anyone that does not want Florida's votes to count

[kgb999]

If Clinton truly IS the stronger candidate, than she should be required to make as strong a showing in NC as Obama did in PA.

In my opinion, Clinton must move the polls to the point where people are talking about (serious) scenarios where she can win outright or at least take more delegates. After the votes are counted, Hillary should be able to take at least half of Obama's lead (She started 20 points up, ended with 9.2).

If she can't make a strong show from behind - what does a win by a point or two prove in Indiana?

[Jean Chevreille]

Live and learn. A year or so ago, I was a fervent supporter of Senator Clinton. I no longer am, and sniper fire in Bosnia has little to do with my change of heart. What caused me to question my allegiance were her statements re leaflets put out by Senator Obama's campaign two days after she claimed she was honored to be sharing the stage with Senator Obama. That was two weeks after the leaflets came out. If she was unaware of the leaflets at the time of the debates, it doesn't say much for her campaign staff. If, however, her campaign staff did its job and she was aware of the pamphlets, it doesn't say much for her.

[N. Holton]

"Clinton has to win Indiana, or face a renewed clamor that she is merely postponing the inevitable demise of her candidacy."

You say that now, but what are you going to say when Obama gets close victory and Clinton blames the fact that Indiana is next to Illinois and that she got outspent?

We've seen the sliding expectations before (didn't Clinton have to win PA by double digits, what happened to that?) and you guys have proven that you're suckers when it comes to the Clinton campaign spin. You know you're getting spun, and yet you still let yourself get spun.

Just asking that you actually stick to your measuring stick this time. You (MSM as a whole) have a chance to redeem yourself in Indiana.

[JTS]

Hey FloridaAmerican, you said "IF the party will not seat our delegates then they can not win in the general election. The primary date that is called a violation was set by A REPUBLICAN STATE SENATE + A REPUBLICAN STATE HOUSE + A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR ..... ! Then our VOTERS are punished? The date was and is NOT the fault of Florida voters. "

That is total bU115hiT! The Democratic members of the state voted with the UNANIMOUS legislature. Check te record, all but ONE Dem legislator voted to move the primary date!!!

The Dems in your state knew as early as May 2007 that their primary would likely NOT count, and they did NOTHING. The DNC has rules to make exceptions when the state party can show it was not their fault the date moved. The Florida Dem Party made no effort to defend itself to the DNC.

May your state sink slowly into the Gulf, you bringers of Bush who can't even hold an election. What -- you threatening to vote for the GOP?? You already do! Dont' worry, we don't need you to win this year. Take your hanging chad and arrogance (see below) and shove it.

Your house speaker, speaking for the unanimous legislature, said "the truth of the matter is that the nominee of either party is going to want to make sure they have not offended the big donors and the biggest activists in the most important state in the country that is electorally available.” You arrogant b*****s tried ot throw your weight around. You made your bed, now LIE IN IT! The rest of this country has NO SYMPATHY for your arrogant state that tried to make its own rules, knew the consequences of doing so, and proceeded merrily.

[Jim]

A one-state primary win streak is what Hillary has right now....

The only reason PA became so "important" was that the pundits had six weeks to wait, with no contests to analyze, magnify, hyperbolize. They were itchy for some kind of contest to watch.

In the end Hillary got 12 more delegates out of PA. Big deal. 2 delegates per week. At that rate she will catch up about 10 months into Obama's presidency.

IN will be close. Even if Hillary wins, it will not put her over the top of anything. NC will end her campaign.

[fabio]

Hillary Clinton is a fighter and I like her determination to fight all the way. I think Obama is too weak to be the president. America, he is not ready to be president yet. I am a italan and my wife is korean. All of our family in california is voting for Hillary because of her experience and her determination obama is too arrogrant and unexperienced to lead our country. People put Hillary down for her Bosnia lies. Look at Obama, He has list of lies in his past. I cannot tolerate his paster 's comment who he had associated for twenty years and his past friend who were terriost.

[PulSamsara]

I and -MILLIONS- like me will vigorously campaign against Hillary Clinton should she STEAL the Democratic nomination. Carve this in stone - she will NOT be elected after this display of Egomania at the expense of the American public. Carve it DEEP in stone !

-and I voted her into her senate seat. Fool me once... NEVER again. Never.

[Lima]

I really am in favour of the democrats...I really careless about who wins the general election...What i want is an Obama / Hilary ticket or a Hilary / Obama ticket...Republicans have damaged our country...hey guys we cant take it anymore...vote for democrats...