A surprise: Oprah pays a real cost for supporting Barack Obama

(UPDATE: This Ticket item has aroused so much interest, traffic and hundreds of comments that a new one has been published this morning. After you've read this item and are ready to go to the new one, just click here to read the reactions of hundreds of Oprah fans and former fans. Thanks for reading.)

Most of the attention on the O2 effect -- Obama and Oprah -- has been focused on how much the daytime TV cult leader helped her home state senator by endorsing him and appearing at all those rallies in Iowa and South Carolina with Barack and Michelle.

The 54-year-old Chicago TV hostess certainly helped raise a hefty chunk of change by loaning out her estate for that Obama fundraiser last summer.

Oprah Winfrey has long enjoyed an immense popularity tied to her long-running daytime TV show, which started in 1986, and helped give her favorable ratings around 78% by 1996. So well known is she that one name will suffice, as in our headline.

In one 1999 survey of the most admired and respected 20th-century women, Oprah (26%) came in only second to Mother Teresa (33%), who didn't have her own TV show. And in 2003 a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that 60% thought Oprah was a more powerful woman than someone named Hillary Clinton, a former first lady and senator, who drew only 28%.

Fourteen months ago, a Gallup/USA Today poll found 74% of Americans had a favorable view of the TV personality.

Then on May 1 last year, Oprah announced during....

the Larry King show that she was, for the first time, going to throw her considerable weight behind a political candidate -- Obama.  King's suspenders nearly snapped.

“I think," she told old Lar, "that my value to him, my support of him, is probably worth more than any check.” Although, to be honest, her estimated $2.5 billion in wealth could buy an awful lot of TV ads in Indiana. It might even be able to purchase the Hoosier State. 

But little attention has been paid to the effect of Obama on Oprah. Now along comes Costas Panagopoulos, an assistant professor of political science at New York's Fordham University, to ask and answer just that question.

Writing at Politico.com, he suggests the aging empress of TV has paid a price for getting into the dirty business of politics with and for her man Barack. By August last year, a CBS poll found her favorable rating had plunged from 74% to 61%, still twice as good as the president but nearly a 20% drop.

Around Thanksgiving she announced that not only was she supporting Obama, but she would campaign with him and we'd see if her political recommendation carried as much weight as her book recommendations. Oprah's political travels produced a media feeding frenzy and a publicity bonanza with women routinely fainting in the front row. The campaign said her rallies produced 10,000 new volunteers.

Winfrey campaigned for Obama in Iowa, which he won, in South Carolina, where he won, and in New Hampshire, where he lost. We haven't heard much about Winfrey since the voting started. Did she realize something we're just getting?  We heard only that she left the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright's Trinity United Church of Christ several years ago, reportedly over some of his more militant sermons that Obama says he never heard.

But 10 days after the campaign media explosion her favorable rating had dropped further to 55% and her unfavorable ratings for the first time climbed to 1 in 3.

A December ABC/Washington Post poll of Democrats found 8% were persuaded by her Obama endorsement, 82% said it wouldn't matter either way and 10% said her recommendation had turned them off Obama.

Now, Panagopoulos has discovered an AOL TV popularity survey of 1.35 million Americans that found 46% said the daytime TV host who "made their day" was Ellen DeGeneres while only 19% chose Winfrey. Forty-seven percent said they'd like to have dinner with Ellen, while only 14% chose Oprah.

Apparently, neither Ellen nor Oprah were asked who they'd like to dine with.

Panagopoulos draws the conclusion that in these days of pervasive media, in reality, celebrity endorsements run the real risk of costing the celebrity more than they benefit the endorsee. So celebs may want to think twice before hitting the stump.

But then how many hundred million dollars a year does an assistant professor at Fordham pull down?

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo credit: Newsday, Archdiocese of Colombo

Comments

[Susanne]

Personally I think she's behind him simply because hes black. Doesnt matter that white America made her what she is today, she's behind him because of the race.
Thats the bottom line.

[Ken Martin]

Somebody just shoot me, please. I really can't believe this many people felt qualified to voice an opinion and none of them can do simple math. 13% of 74% is 17.6% which does round somewhat fairly to about 20%. With the obvious intellect of the average poster here, it does seem reasonable to me that we probably SHOULD let Britney run things. I'm sure some posters will be offended by my post; all I can say is 'tough', at least learn to read and get out you math book before you make a fool of yourself. Think I'll shut up as I've already made a fool of myself by even taking the time to respond.

[Phaedra]

I love Oprah and think she's one of the CLASSY women on this planet. A self made BILLIONAIRE! Amazing! Oprah is one the smartest women I've had the honor to meet and work for. What a genuine, caring, giving human being. God bless Oprah Winfrey for all the brilliant things she has done for women. And thank you, thank you, thank you, Oprah for introducing me to designer Nate and Sen. Obama. Both are winners.

OBAMA 08!

[Bills]

LOL at the Oprah apologists who can't do basic math....

No wonder the Democrats find it easy to fool these people...

[AnotherKeith]

"...CBS poll found her favorable rating had plunged from 74% to 61%, still twice as good as the president but nearly a 20% drop"

While I can't agree or disagree with facts, I don't think the writer is wrong in his math, his sentence wasn't as clear as it could have been. I think he meant to say that she only has approximatly 80% of her original rank.

Let's take a look at the math: If we take the amount that she dropped, 13 percentage points, and divide that by her beginning amount, we get .1756 or 17.56%. Which is close to a 20% decrease in rank. Written another way (.74-.61)/.74 = .1756 (for the math people, this would be = Delta R / R = percent change of R)

[Tom H.]

I suspect some of the people who have commented here have better qualifications for being president than does Barack Obama.

[Rebecca]

I can’t tell you how disappointed I was when Oprah backed Obama. I used to just think the world of her and might have voted for her if she had run for office. Now I question her judgment and her ability to do correct research before she backs some one. The things that I have seen about Obama tell me he just isn’t the kind of leader we need for our country. He is all glitter and no substance. Ask people to tell you one bill he has written since he has been win Washington and had pass that helps all Americans. They can’t name one because they don’t know what he stands for, just that Hollywood backs him.

[marie]

Rich white women made Oprah what she is today. And what does she do, suports a man that is nothing but an arrogant racist against whites and this country. Anybody else notice, that when Obama gave his "I am not a racist speech", he finally used not one but four of our United States of American flags to stand in front of. What a joke he is.

[Glen]

For all you dolts who are complaining about the math....he did not say a 20 percentage point reduction. He said a 20 percent reduction. The math is (74-61)/74 which in reality equals a 17.5% drop which then was rounded to 20%.

AND none the less, it is still a large drop which ...might...show the impact of her support of Obama. What we do not know is if there are other circumstances impacting the drop.

[Sue]

I have had enough of everything. Obama, Oprah,
Hillary just everyone. We still have a long way to go
in this Presidental race and I am burned out!

Tired of Oprah. Don't watch her show and do not
drink her "Kool-Aid".

I love Ellen. She is the real thing. She doesn't make it
a hobby to make money off other people's misery.
She just is a pleasure to watch.

Oprah probably will have a permament office and bedroom down the hall from Barack Hussien Obama
and
Michelle! Oooo lalalalal.

And Auntie O sure won't be babysitting his kids!

[Don Pack]

Guess what, those of us in Fly Over country don't really care. Go Big 12.

[NJH]

Oprah used to be what Obama pretends to be---someone who could help us transcend racial divisions. Obama has failed miserably on his promise; in fact he has introduced more racial discord into the race than any politician in recent memory. His long association with Jeremiah Wright, his campaign's frequent and implausible assertions of racism at every turn and his own ham-handed characterization of his grandmother as a "typical white person" alienate people like me, who used to enjoy watching Oprah. Not so much any more.
And you can bet I wont be voting for Obama. Even though I'm a life-long democrat.

[linda]

Oprah wound not speak out against Michael Vick .Now she wants everybody to get behind Obama,

[Rick C.]

I agree that Oprah certainly has a right to support who she wishes. But viewers also have the right to watch what they want on TV. I never watched her show, not because of anything she stands for, just isn't a type of show I watch. I am happy for her success however.

[Robert Gonzalez]

I don't care what Oprah Windbag says. I'm not votin' for no jug-eared fool.

[Bobc]

I quit watching Oprah years ago....she got too political, too silly with our so-called stars for my taste.

And those women in the audience, they have looks on their faces like they have just seen a god!

[dimerumor]

For those statistical analysts who couldn't figure out why a drop from 74% to 61% was about a 20% drop, you ought to do some figuring of your own before criticizing the writer. Take 74 and subtract 61 and you get 13. 13 divided by 74 is .175675...... or 17.57%, which rounds up pretty fairly to "about 20%". Statistics are not really the story here, but they tend to show a little drop off in support. There is no argument presented that she doesn't have the right to support a candidate or a criticism of the candidate she is supporting. They are simply saying that she has had a drop off in favorability ratings.

[jcr]

The fact you disagree with Oprah or you feel Oprah made a mistake is a normal part of life. Chill out and drink decaf. Do you like everything your family has done? Will you cut them off when you disagree with them? We are all different and we all make mistakes but very few of us have done as much with their careers and for the poor as Oprah. Give her, and everyone else you disagree with, some slack and start looking for things we can accomplish together as none of the presidential candidates are ideal. God help us.

[Sgt D]

"This proves there are many idiots in the US. A decent lady that most people like, comes out in favor of someone from her state and her race, and people take their "positive" feeling away from someone? What a bunch of idiots. I get along with New Democrats, Conservatives and Liberals here in Canada, I respect any way they want to vote. Boy am I glad I don't live in the US of A "

We are glad you don't live here we don't need no advise from you folks up there who keep running south to get health care because of you failed system in Canada.

[karen]

I used to tee vo Oprah everyday. I was dismayed that she entered into the political scene. Many of Oprahs viewers are Republicans. A while back Oprah had a show in which she let some women speak or write to her about how they felt sad and or angry when people disrespected the President and they wanted to be heard too. It is perceived correctly that she is left leaning. BUT, she also had O'Reilly on to take on the issue that we Conservatives who like the Oprah show and watch it are offended by the political track she has taken. I personally watch the online class with Oprah and Tolle. I have enjoyed every minute EXCEPT for when they both started talking about Obama and his race speech, two weeks ago. I was totally turned off and I feel it has NO place on a forum that is dedicated to the flowering of Human Consciousness. It was so out of place in the class and I was really shocked. How can anyone so popular so widely known and widely respected be ignorant of the fact that many many of her fans are Conservatives? It doesn't make sense. No actor, writer or ANY public figure who enjoys the MONEY that we the public pay them for their service should ever engage in politics. Everyone's politics should be a personal and private matter. The very fact that there is so much division in this country comes from everyone taking a position and advertising it and asking their friends and fans to be cool and go with "their" candidate. Keep your politics to yourself.!!! Vote your conscience. Don't follow famous peoples' politics. Its just common sense. Why would we want Oprah to tell us who to vote for.?Doesn't that make you feel really stupid and like a lemming or something? I don't like it. I like Oprah, shes a wonderful person but she took a misstep by getting into the Presidential race. I always thought she would support a Democrat but I didn't think she would use her power to divide them. She lost a few fans when she entered into politics full force. We all have our own feelings and beliefs and it has nothing to do with the lives that famous, immensely rich and powerful people feel about life. So why would anyone in the middle class of America think it is ok for a celebrity to tell you how to vote?

[catmando]

The way a 74% drop to 61% = almost 20% is that 20% of 74 = 14.8. 74-14.8=59.2, thus almost a 20% drop. The math is correct and so is the statement. Her favorable rating did "plunge" almost 20%.

[Kim]

Oprah lost me, a long time follower once she crossed the line of politics. She should have listened to he old adage -never dicuss religion, politics or money with your friends or famiy....well all of her followers are the reason she is where she is--so betray the followers by drawing a line in the stand of politics, religion or money--you will lose. Oprah has done great things and appears to have a heart of gold. I think it is a shame that she crossed the line-many people I know have lost respect for her...and if you dont have that-you dont have much. She lost commonality with republican women, she lost commonality with christians and that's a lot of people. We expect behaviour like that from hollywood stars because they are whacked anyway--but from Oprah whose judgement we al trusted...she is now just another hollywood liberal who is not one of us anymore. The other point is that she must of gotten bored...so she may be unconsciously sabotaging herself. If you are bored doing the same stuff-no challenge--you take on something new and there you go! If you are at the top you have nowhere to go! BUT if you fall down then you have somewhere to go---back up!!

[Schratboy]

The so-called Oprah effect is pure ether. Actually, the poll results show the that the public isn't as stupid as Oprah had hoped, mindlessly buying all the cruddy products and endorsements she is paid a King's ransom for performing her commercial pimping services. No politico can hope the celebrity factor will woo the public. John Flounder Kerry hoped to conscript Jon Bon Jovi's free concerts to turn out the youth vote in his favor. Didn't happen. Other musicians have similarly failed. They're just like anybody else: they have opinions and they all stink. Nobody is going to be swayed just because some pretty-faced idiot says everyone should vote their recommendation.

[Brigitte F.]

I used to be a passionate about watching the Oprah show.
Not anymore, I'm very disappointed in her as she said so many times on her show, that she would never get involved in Politics. Well, I don't know why she changed her mind? She says Obama is brilliant! I say he is a very excellent speaker, but President material? I guess he even fooled Oprah with his way with words.
Just to know that he is a member of that church for 20 years and wants to tell us that he didn't know the HATRED
against America, that was preached there by the Pastor Wright. Oprah realized what was going on in that church, did she know that Obama is still a member there?
Well... Obama is not getting my vote.
I hope people wake up and check a bit deeper into the life of Obama and his church.
My vote goes to HIllary!!!!

[BZ]

I am not surprised by this drop in "favorability".

I used to be a major Oprah fan, but felt she crossed the line with the Obama endorsement.
She should have stayed neutral and could been an influencer in the process by hosting discussions and debates on the issues and how they effect women.

This is the beginning of the erosion from her core base of support and fans.