New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[chris c]

This is what happens when you're an elite snob who looks down on people. What a brilliant idea to make fun of rural Americans in front of an audience of wealthy San Franciscans.

He's not electable.

[Tucker]

Let us not forget how notoriously unreliable ARG has proven itself to be this election season.

[amy]

And what does hillary get for lying to her voters? She read those Bosnia remarks out from a speech, this is ridulously unfair? Whenever obama makes a small mistake the whole media is against him but what does clinton get and what is worse?

[Toni]

The voters of America must come to realize that Obama is not a "true" american. His comments are out of control. Does he fear that what goes around on emails in the us is against him and tells all his history?? Hilary is honest, trustworthy and faithful to her country. Just because she is a woman she SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED. WAKE UP AMERICA....WE CAN'T TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 YEARS OF REPLUBLICANS. IT IS TIME FOR A CHANGE. A POSITIVE CHANGE. HILARY CAN DO THAT FOR US. WHERE ARE YOU AT 3AM IN THE MORNING.

[stexe]

Talk about spin! He's citing an obscure poll of a mere 600 people, while today's Gallup poll, a far more reliable resource, reflects Obama with a 10% lead. This is his widest margin yet. www.gallup.com has the stats, and you can also check today's huffingtonpost.com to see videos of Obama getting support and Clinton getting jeered from the people of Pennsylvania when each of them bring up the issue.

[dsclinton]

Good riddance, Obama! America can take your smooth talking BS for only so long. Now the true Obama is coming out adn the middle class America doesn't like what they see. Hillary, please bring back the peace and prosperity. Tired of $4.00 /gal gas.

[Steve Smith]

ARG is regarded as one of the worst pollsters out there, as any decent journalist should know. There's no way this media-driven "controversy" could create a twenty point swing in a week. Gallup still has him up 10 nationally. Get real.

[Jim Mackie]

Obama is right. All we have is guns, cheap beer and
religion. Only Obama can but an end to the war in Washington that has seen the Clinton and Bush
nuts fight it out for 25 years leaving all but the rich
behind. God help the world if Clinton or Mr. Bush
the 3rd gets the job.

[johngotts]

Clinton is making the PA voters look like total dupes.

She is proving the old saying that you can fool some of the people ALL of the time.

Come on PA are you really this naive? A woman with $100MM in net-worth and the GOP guy who owns 8 homes says that Obama is an elitist? And this coming from the woman who repeatedly lies about everything from Bosnia to being related to Sir Edmund Hillary, to playing soccer as a girl to going to Africa with Wilson, to lying about being involved in the Irish peace process... the list just goes on and makes the PA voters look dumb.

WOW, what is the average IQ in PA?

[newsgirl]

This is irresponsible journalism. A headline that proclaims that he is "tanking," followed by caveats embedded in the article implying that the ARG poll is unreliable. Note that other news outlets HAVE outright declared it unreliable. Yes, it does look like there is some narrowing. Consensus so far seems to be about a nine-point spread -- not a twenty-point "tanking." This is an example of irresponsible journalism shaping public perception.

[MVK]

I recognize what they are trying to do to Obama as well.

I am a person in an urban area in California and I AM BITTER. Nothing wrong with being bitter and Obama is the only candidate in years to indicate any potential for change.

[CD]

We have to keep in mind that Obama didn't have this discussion at a town hall meeting or at anytime on the campaign trail. He had this discussion after he was asked a question about why he was expected to lose in Pennsylvania. He was in a private setting with an elite rich group of people in San Francisco. Obama didn't know he was being secretly taped. How refreshing to see a side of him that the media has avoided or refused to research prior to this incident.

[Rose]

This is rediculious! Overkill, yeah right. Now you say the ADs are about him not the issues, when people where complaining about not knowing him and wanted to know more about him. Everybody knows the Clintons. Maybe thats why he has more Ads to help people get to know him better. WELL, PEOPLE ARE NOT BLIND OR DEAF! OBAMA CAN'T WIN FOR LOSING. THE GOVENOR IN PENN ALREADY SAID THAT HIS WHITE PEOPLE IS NOT READY FOR A BLACK PRESIDENT! SO NOTHING OBAMA SAYS OR DO WILL SATISFY THOSE PATICULAR WHITE PEOPLE, BECAUSE I'M SURE MOST WHITE PEOPLE DON'T FEEL THAT WAY. AND ONE MORE THING, WHY WOULD HILLARY SUPPORT A GOVERNOR WHO WOULD SAY THAT EVEN IF ITS TRUE, ESPECIALLY WHEN SHE IS A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL WHO IS SUPPOSE TO SUPPORT THE CONSTITUTION THAT SAYS EVERYONE SHOULD BE CREATED EQUAL!!!!!!!!

[James Marsden]

Maybe Obama will learn that you cannot mock peoples' religion and their right to own guns as some flash in the pan. You can bet that no matter what Dems think of this - Obama will, in the end, get his party's nomination - the average American who loves God and his guns will turn against the Dems in November. Maybe if the entire ticket took a loss Dems would stop mocking peoples' religion and their right to own firearms.

[Olivia]

It is very ironic to blame the fire when were your own words that ignited the flame that now devoures you. Obama likes too much to hear himself talk and as such he writes speeches without much real dialogue or interaction with people, avoids answering questions from the press, votes "present" on critical issues just to "wash his hands," but he likes name-calling: "typical white american", "bitter" americans, etc. --he is a bubblle full of hot air. Many jumped on to his bandwagon and so far had an easy ride. However, reality hits you harder when the bubble bursts and the hangover attacks. One can already hear the hissing. shshhshshshshs.

Don't get me wrong. He might still get the nomination. But it will be a disaster in the general elections for the party, the country and the world.

[Bob]

After hearing his pastor and mentor saying 'kill the whites', I was done with him then. doubly done with him now.
I don't believe a man would have opinions too far afield from his long time pastor and mentors.

[David]

White people in America have spent 40 trillion dollars on programs to benefit African-Americans. 40 trillion.

40 trillion.

Mostly it subsidized failure. Even Obama says the black community is in trouble. But he blames this on its benefactors.

Obama, of course, went to Harvard, subsidized. But of course, "God d--- America," as his chosen pastor says.

Black people need to learn to be grateful for all they have been given by whites. They have done very well in this country.

[Dr. R.E.Chao]

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign spent the weekend dealing with fallout from comments he made about small town Pennsylvania voters last week during a private fundraiser in San Francisco. Among his declarations the most striking revelation was his opinión that…

[small town people…] cling to religion as a way to explain their frustrations.

If this sounds familiar lets recall the words of Karl Marx in his essay Contribution to the Critique of Hegel's Philosophy of Right, Deutsch-Französische Jahrbücher, February, 1844:

“Religion is for man the universal basis of consolation and justification… it is the expression of real suffering and a protest against real suffering, the sigh of the oppressed creature… the illusory happiness of the people. It is the opium of the people.”

Is this just a coincidence?

[Jay Clark]

He gave these remarks in front of a group of wealthy supporter in a 'closed' meeting. He was try to explain to them why they should support him even though he might not do so well among rural voters - especially in Pa. Remember he got in a dig at Clinton just before his 'clumsy' comments ...last 2 administration made promises but didn't help them so now they're bitter...) While his background may save him from the fate of John Kerry or Michael Dukokis now that this has become public and the people he was talking about are justifiably offended he's got a real problem. it sounds like he was catering (or pandering) to what he perceived as his audience's 'elitist' tendancies. Time to come clean and admit he was dialing for dolars - Its better than being an elitist.

[Douglas]

ARG is known as a "crap poll" and not respected in political or polling circles. The LA Times shows extreme bias in reporting only these results and not other polls.

[Albert C. Mezzetti]

Everyone knows the Los Angeles Times is a Republican paper and will knock Obama every chance it gets.

I am a wounded W.W. II Marine Corps machine gunner who also served his country in the Korean and Nam war and I think Obama is the best thing that happened to this country in a long time.

[Justin]

All the Media is trying is to drown OBAMA's voice, so he stops speaking out for those he believes in (the common man) then they fabricate a poll showing him loosing support, so that they can sway the undecided voters to troop to the winning side.......weel it aint working. IF YOU ARE A TRUE BELIEVER IN THE TRUTH STICK TO YOUR VOTE. Enough of the media trying to sway us like sheeps.

[Chancey]

It amazes me how someone can make such an insignificant remark and lose so many "voters" but you have someone that outright lies to you and it's okay. I am stunned once again by the American public.

[Rachel]

Clinton is only hurting the success of the democratic party by capitalizing on the ill-choiced words of her gaining opponent. Another example of Hillary making choices for her own self gain (cough the Clinton machines multi- million dollar income cough) and not in the best interest of the party, or more importantly, the people.

[Tom]

Sounds like a man with a lot of hate hidden just below the surface. Too bad, as our nation could use a man (or woman) of high quality as a leader.....

Don't see that quality in him...