New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[mgrfin@yahoo.com]

I find this poll to be out of sorts. The latest Gallup Daily poll of 4/13 shows Obama 50% and Clinton 40%, and the Susquehanna Polling and Research Clinton 40% and Obama 37%.

I don't believe that his numbers could have fallen so significantly. No one considers that poll, so it is not even included in the averages.

[Ron Burkle]

The futures markets for predicting election have not budged on this tempest in a teapot!
Hillary needs to win by the amount predicted in this "new terrible poll" for Obama just to have any mathematical chance of staying alive in the delegate count.

[Michael]

This will be a good test for how much the electorate is paying attention to cable news where the story has been played up beyond reason, or the actual underlying facts of the story, which are a far more benign. Obama is right--the Clinton campaign and the media are playing politics with this is in the worst way. Makes you wonder if the MSM wants to do him in like they did Dean in 2004.

[toby]

I'm starting to think Obama's support is completely illusionary.

If you take out the Caucuses and minority driven primaries in solidly red States....

Hillary is beating him 2 to 1.

Heck if yo just take out the Caucuses, Hillary is beating him handily.

And I'm sorry but NOTHING is more undemocratic than Caucuses. If other countries held Caucuses, we would denounce them as Unfair and undemocratic.

To have people go to places like someone's house, publicly debating where strong arm tactics can be used, and then being force to vote publicly....

There's is NOTHING Democratic about that....and it doesn't gauge the electability of a candidate in any means, just their ability to get the toughest voters to show and force others to support them...at leat temporary.

Again, I'm starting to think Obama's support is completely illusionary.

[The Bag of Health and Politics]

Bogus poll. People could care less about bittergate. It is the creation of elite NYC and DC media who thinks they know what we think out here in real America. Having been in central PA, I think Obama will lose PA, but not by 20 points. I think the tied survey was BS and I think this survey was BS. My guess is about a 10 point win for Obama. Remember, Hillary started PA with a 23 point lead.Tanking would be down by 40!

[Jonathan]

I don't think his comments hurt him at all. I don't expect him to win PA, but that isn't all that important, he still has the momentum to win elsewhere. Even if people are weary about Obama, I think many still prefer him over Clinton around here.

But the sad thing is so many of these 'working class' Pennsylvanians (in my eyes) don't even know much about any candidate other than the snippets they see on the news which are primarily bad things.

Obama ftw.

[Craig]

The vetting out continues. GO HILLARY '08!

[George]

Whats the big deal? Obama is just regurgitating the communist doctrine he was taught and believes. Religion is the opiate of the masses. Of course the little Pennsylvania peasants want to "cling" to their opiate in tough financial times.

Barak Hussien will work tirelessly to have the peasants transfer that faith in GOD to faith in the government.

After all, as Barak has been taught in church for the last 20 years - if GOD isn't with the goals of the Black Liberation Theology ("Hate and Blame Whitey for all the worlds ills" - for those unfamiliar with the doctrine), then Barak's church should/will "murder him".

[billy r]

susan, what networks are you watching? I am an avid news viewer and must tell you that CNN and MSNBC should just declare they are in the tank for OBAMA and get it over with.

Last nights cnn forum on compassion was a love fest toward Obama. R u kidding me?

[Gary_Hurd]

Honestly, I have about decided that there is nothing that could make me vote for any Clinton, in any election, for any office.

It can be true that refusing to vote against the worst of two evils is to assure the election of the worst of two evils, but it still might be too hard to vote for Hilary Clinton.

[Latham Stack]

The American Research Group is notorious for inaccurate polling. I'm surprised the L.A. Times is giving these results any credibility.

[Don D'Anthony]

When he said they "turn to religion and guns out of bitterness" he actually revealed a deep contempt for the 2nd ammendment and America's Christian religous heritage-the mask was off. He's a pure elitist that thinks we serfs have no need (and/or lack the mental capacity) to bear arms in protection of our liberties, and that deep down religion is "just a crutch" for bitter simpleminded people.

Of course, neither of these things are true-"We the people" bearing arms is how American liberty was won in the first place, and in all areas of life people of Christian belief systems have outperformed the secular and "sexually liberated" co-citizens-stabile communities, intact families bearing well adjusted children who become good citizens-freedom from disease and drugs.

Remember, throughout human history the defining characteristic between a slave and a free man has been the free man's right to bear arms.

Moreover, throughout human history it has been the cosmopolitican and sophisticated that produced the collapses of their civilizations, not the provincial patriarchal, strict citizen soilders of the farms.

As it has always been, provincial family men bearing arms father a civilization, decadent despots seeking to enslave first and always seeks to take those arms away.

IMO he's beaten himself.

[bert]

at least they have seen the wolf in sheeps clothing before it is to late

[Hypnos]

Bottom line kiddies, (and I voted for this guy some time ago), if you want to be president or get elected to any office, don't say negative things about the voters. Any voters..... It was dumb. You're in Pennsylvania, you go bowling to impress the working guys.. You're in San Francisco, you open your big mouth in front of the wealthy intellectuals and vomit all over your campaign. He may be bright but this was just plain dumb, I don't care what anyone says. No spin will change this perhaps only time.

[Tony]

National polls mean absolutely nothing. Unless the polling is done from the states that will likely vote Democrat, then the poll cannot be taken seriously. There are several states won by Obama that will never, ever, vote Democrat in the general election.

Count the states that Clinton has won, along with their electoral votes. Then do the same for Obama. Then subtract out the states from Obama that will certainly vote Republican. Obama loses handily. This is the only poll that really matters.

There is no "mass media" conspiracy at work against Obama. The Obama "bitter" comments stem from his inability to get the votes outside of the major metro areas, where (and this is not racist unless you pretne it to be) the population is predominantly black.

[walden9]

Hahahaha, Obama is the most impertinent, arrogant, insolent, over-self-estimating, self-aggrandizing half term senator ever to run for president (well, he's actually the ONLY half-term junior senator ever to run for president, but this fact just proves the former).

[jeffmissouri]

The problem with your blog is the particular poll you are revering to is usually very completely wrong. That is way www.realclearpolitics.com does not include this polls results in their average totals.

[Dr. Dave]

Obama BUSTED!

After giving him the benefit of the doubt, most folks have finally come to realize the arrogance behind the Obama campaign. This has been more about molding and shaping a false political image in the age of the internet than anything else. Eventually the real man behind the mask had to emerge and in this case it's just another typical small minded, small time slick Chicago politician. I actually feel sorry fall all the Obamaheads who fell head over heels in love for this guy.

SeeYA!

[Poncie]

Hillary seems to be able to say and get away with any and everything and yet her remarks generate nothing but a couple of laughs; whereas Obama's remarks always seem to linger and linger for days and weeks - what's going on here.

By the way I am bitter: bitter about a government that seems to be more interested in furthering its own cause as opposed to its constitutents cause. Bitter about a war that we don't want, that's costing us trillions, bitter about bailing out wall street, and to damn with main street, bitter about our failing schools and kids being left behind.

And so in this bitterness - I do turn to my GOD and wonder what in the world is going on.

An elitist - when they, The Clintons, made over 1/10 of a billion dollars in 6 years, due to him representing the American people. Give me a break!

[Max Losk]

Go Hillary! Go girl!

[don]

To Susan: We meaning who, Obama's followers that refuse to see anything other than greatness from Obama. Obama has had a free ticket almost all the way up to this point. To make a point, a big deal was made about Hillary's story of her landing in Bosnia; which BTW I think was rediculous at best considering Rezko, Rev. Wright and now his contempt for small town America. I'm sure given his Rev views Obama feels only racists live where most people don't support his Anti-American stance. And talk about feeling entitled I believe he feels entitled to the Presidency given what has happened to Black persons in the past. After all he threw Grandma under the bus but not his precious Rev Wright who has done so many great things for........Black Americans.

[jeffmissouri]

The problem with your blog is the particular poll you are revering to is usually very completely wrong. That is way www.realclearpolitics.com does not include this polls results in their average totals.

[KansasGirl]

To Susan, you "voice" has been silenced! He is a "racist". I love this meltdown.

[Americao805]

Obama is one over-confident arrogant individual. He eventually gets away with this crap because so many naive desperate voters (obama supporters) want change but have a blurry vision of the obvious.

[RLF]

I guess the more people see and hear Obama the less they want him. Interesting turn around.