New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[John from NC]

The phrase "based on interviews with 600 democrats" hints that the poll was conducted on the basis of an old list, most likely comprised of Clinton supporters. Sounds like another kitchen sink to me.

[Nigel Anderson]

This poll is so biased that it's not even funny. Dick Bennett, is the biggest Republican, and is doing his best to make sure Obama loses big in Pennsylvania. There are so many things in this country that are corrupt, and people like Dick are a major portion of that. This presidential primary is all about the battle of the media, who can fool people more. People know the truth though, and regardless of how much these people don't want Obama to come out ahead, we all know that he is our only hope for changing organizations and people like Dick. I wish the LA times would dig deeper on some of these issues and expose people who are trying to put a shield in front of people's eyes..

[Mary T]

It isn't so much what Obama said that has people angry...It's what Clinton and McCain and most of the media have SAID he said. Sadly enough, people without the intelligence to think and reason for themselves will believe the latter. For anyone to believe Obama would be stupid enough to deliberately make comments that would be offensive to the voters is stupidity in itself.

Ask some of my friends, relatives and neighbors if they're bitter and frustrated about losing jobs, or working for $6-$8 an hour.

Obama probably is better in touch with the realities of average Americans than multi-millionaires Clinton and McCain.

[P Craig Mitchell]

Obama learned bitterness is his chosen Chicago church under chosen Pastor Wright. Were he to visit a "small town" chuch he would learn love. Jesus wasn't bitter, only Peter, when he realized he had denied Him three times. Small town folks love God and recognize why guns are necessary (it was the small towns around Boston that answered Paul Revere's call and came armed to Boston's defense). Change your heart Barack, not your words. Maybe in a few years you will be up to being President. Not now.

[ncarrizo]

Hey, Obama fans, maybe it's time to heed that great sucking sound...and the whoosh that just accompanied it!

[Javalation]

Congratulations MSM. Your effort to stick us with another Republican war monger seems to be working. Just keep up the find anything to attack Obama, and let McCain slide on everything strategy and you will succeed in giging us again.

[ernesto juarez]

How come when anything negative comes out on Obama, immediatly we get a blog defending him vigoriously? How many people think it is because he has hired and paid bloggers to defend him the instant something derogatory comes out ? Or is it really just some supporter waiting for a bad story to come out so he/she can defend him? Is this really how they get the message accross? It is very sad that a 'uniter" has to do this to carry on. Quite pathetic!

[JOE BENTO]

This poll was probably conducted by Mark Penn. get real no one is believing this b.s. that the media is spouting at us constantly. The Barack Obma supporters already know that the nomination is in the bag and that he won TEXAS unlike what Hillary and John the status quo candidates want us to believe. Barack Gets it and we get that Hillary is a first class liar and wants the focus off of her lies and on to his honest is misspoken comments. He worked minimum wage jobs to get himself through college and excelled. She is dong the dirty work for McCain hoping to leap frog McCain come the next round since she knows this one is over for her.

BARACK AND ROLL in 2008

[N. Otter]

As a conservative small town Pennsylvania resident I will be sure to vote for Barack Obama on April 22 and in November after he wins the Democratic nomination. The main stream media will not stop Barack Obama by distorting and misinterpreting his words. Everyone knows he is the candidate of change but the old powers that be want stop him from being elected because they will lose power. We Pennsylvanians will not fall for the swiftboating of Barack Obama!!

[Pepe]

I guess they couldn't handle the truth. Obama was stupidly honest.

[Dark Heart]

I do think it's worth noting that for most of the cycle, ARG's sans OH, WI and TX, has done quite poorly in its polling.

[JohnCleever]

One poll out of many, so who is ARG, why the small sample size,? Did Hillary pay for this poll?

Shame on you, this is the second time I've read hit pieces on your "blog" which is, by the way, a worthless pile of trash.

[donjim]

Obama's comments are the truth that no one wants to admit, especially the far right. The non issues such as abortion and gun control are used by the far right as cover for a disasterous war and deplorable economic conditons. A book published a few years ago goes into a lenghty discussion of this issue,
" What's the Matter with Kansas." It is refreshing to hear somoeone ( Obama) not afraid to tell it like it is.

[Mr. Sandman]

This election cycle has truly showed me just how far off base you guys at the LA Times are. Every other poll says Obama is ahead of Clinton in polling and you guys just dismiss that data like it was yesterdays uh... news.

Reality check! Come back to Earth, plz.

[Danny]

Instead of blathering on about the "controversy" of Obama's remarks, why don't journalists get in their cars and drive out to the small towns to see if people really are bitter about their economic situation? If my experience is any guide, you'll find that a lot of them are, indeed, upset at how our government places the interests of transnational corporations above those of average working people. This whole episode is just another sorry example of how the media's "horse race" election coverage gives short shrift to issues that voters are really concerned about.

[John Smith]

I was going to post a comment about Obama, but then I clicked through the "Here are the full legal terms you agree to by using this comment form" link and saw this:

"User Content License. For all User Content you post, upload, or otherwise make available ("Provide") to latimes.com, you grant Tribune Interactive, Inc. ("TI"), its affiliates and related entities, including latimes.com and its affiliated newspapers, Web sites, and broadcast stations, a worldwide, royalty-free, perpetual, irrevocable, non-exclusive right and fully sub-licensable license to use, copy, reproduce, distribute, publish, publicly perform, publicly display, modify, adapt, translate, archive, store, and create derivative works from such User Content, in any form, format, or medium, of any kind now known or later developed. Without limiting the generality of the previous sentence, you authorize TI to share the User Content across all Web sites, newspapers, and broadcast stations affiliated with Tribune Company, to include the User Content in a searchable format accessible by users of latimes.com and other TI Web sites, to place advertisements in close proximity to such User Content, and to use your name, likeness and any other information in connection with its use of the material you provide. You waive all moral rights with respect to any User Content you provide to latimes.com. You also grant TI the right to use any material, information, ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in any communication you provide or otherwise submit to us for any purpose whatsoever, including but not limited to, commercial purposes, and developing, manufacturing and marketing commercial products using such information. All rights in this paragraph are granted without the need for additional compensation of any sort to you."

Would you also like my first born child, LA Times?

[Rock On]

As mentioned above, Gallup, who has a FAR better record with regard to polling accuracy, does not reflect anything like what ARG found. But you know, don't bother caveating this with a note about how pathetic and frequently wrong ARG's polling is, because that would distract from the narrative.

[Julia, Pasadena, CA]

Nice try. But we're not as stupid as you think.

[Mitch]

Obama's TV blitz in Pennsylvania is hurting Obama more than helping. Through those ads, voters are seeing more, and dreaming less. Obama, I believe, would make a good president, as would Clinton. We can thank GW Bush for one thing. . . now we all know that neither Gore nor Kerry would have placed our country in such poor condition. We can take comfort in the fact that no one else could be as bad a president as has been GW Bush. Unless, of course, you'd be willing to gamble on John McCain.

[RichieRich]

Today it's Obama. Tomorrow it'll be Hillary. They both stink,..equally.
McCain is no better.
We all will lose this November.

[BigT]

I think that you should consider the source. Anybody can call themselves a pollster and publish numbers without a sound methodology. The blogger below has investigated ARG and found that they do not have a solid track record or a reputable organization:

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

[volunteer]

To those who blame the media for Obama's problems think about what he has said and done.

He is being examined like any other candidate and the real Obama is just starting to show

[photty]

What a dilema....Mrs William C. back for a third term, another 100 yesrs in Iraq, or a yuppy colored guy with pretty verbage. What a mess.

[Steve]

It's interesting that this whole episode is characterized by the press with the tag "bitter comment" when really the problem part is his use of "clinging" to religion, guns, anti-immigration. anti trade etc to describe why a portion of voters don't agree with him on these issues.
He was explaining that voters who don't agree with him on these issues are motivated by bitterness implying an irrational emotional basis for views that he opposes. This kind of attitude on his part demonstrates an unwillingness to think through the issues involved if he is going to dismiss the concerns of a large part of the electorate out of hand.

As someone who finds religion, my second amendment rights, a sensible trade policy and a functioning immigration policy to be important I find his remarks as someone who is simply "clinging" to these beliefs out of 'bitterness'-- implying there is no rational argument behind my beliefs--to be condescending and insulting.

In fact I'm not bitter at all--I'm a cheerful guy--I just think he's wrong and his remarks are indicative of the kind of snobbery I've heard before from Ivy League types when it comes to working class Americans.

[Barry]

Mr. Obama needs to realize that words have meaning. We are seeing a tendency in the words of Mr. Obama and his close friends and associates that is frightening. What he said was what he truly believed. There is no doubt about that. It is disappointing that every time someone points out his character flaws or areas of concern (racist friends and ties with criminals), people blame the old guard, not Mr. Obama. How people view us comes from our words, our actions, our appearance, and the company we keep. The "Old Guard" has no control over these things, but Mr. Obama does. He chooses his words and he chooses his close friends and allies.