New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Jeff]

ARG has been the most unreliable polling outfit this election season. They had Clinton +9 right before Iowa, with Obama behind Edwards. All the other polls consistently showed Hillary with leads in PA, so it's more likely their previous poll with both candidates tied at 45 was the outlier, not this one.

[11thCavVet]

Looks like the good people of Pennsylvania have grabbed their guns, their bibles, tuned into Lou Dobbs, and placed their heads firmly in the sand. Far be it for them to actually take a few minutes to read what Obama really said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-coleman/i-was-there-what-obama-re_b_96553.html

[Ron]

The politicians who DON'T believe that the small town midwestern voters have become bitter with Washington have exposed themselves to be the ones who truly are "elitist and out of touch".

[coatesmoe]

Does the public want statements like "politics is a contact sport" or Clinton saying let them fight it out, Hillary lying about being shot at. The truth is that we can afford to build Iraq up and bring students into the USA at tax payers money. We can not afford to take care of our sick because of the mistakes of Bush Clinton. Do we want another 8 years of this until Chelsea comes or the Bush tribe gets back in power.

[Alex]

Senator Obama clarified his intent regarding what is now known as his "bitter" statement during last nights "Compassion Forum" televised on CNN. When will the media report on that ?

[Rye]

News flash, chuckleheads! What Obama said was absolutely TRUE, and there is NO NEED for him to apologize for the comments. This is just ugly, dirty spin by the Clinton camp.

[Daniel Blinkoff]

I'm sickened by the Clinton camp. I am bitter. Obama's comments are not elitist! It's elitist to wag your finger at the nation and say "I did not have sexual relations with that woman". It's elitist to say "I'm going to make the Bush tax cuts permanent" in a time of war. Obama was not denegrating religion. I have turned towards my religion more in these times of need because I have no faith in our government. Obama was addressing these very sensative times and the right wing media and Clinton are spinning this. God help us if we as a nation follow this foolery.

[J Pat]

is that the same gallup that said in June of 2004....."The poll finds Kerry leading Bush in the presidential contest by 49% to 44% among registered voters, and 50% to 44% among likely voters."

[salamander]

Michael,

I can believe it if it's not his words that aren't annoying them as much as his ubiquitous ads are.

Unless you're living in PA, you may not see just how much people are being bombarded by campaign ads. I'm a big Obama supporter (from IL), but reading how people are sick of seeing his ads reminds me of how sick I was of seeing all the candidates' (presidential and otherwise) ads in my area back in '04. There is such a thing as saturation, and I hope that Obama's campaign didn't overdo it.

[JE]

Yeahhh! Finally people are seeing the light about this guy!!! Shows Pensylvanians are smart people and are not deceived or taken in by OB.

[Charles]

It is a credit to the people of PA and their ability to see B.O. for what he really is: A one term Senator from Illinois that was elected only by exploiting racial and class differences in a predominately African American community. He is NOT the product of "the struggle", but rather has benefited since birth from the very best of what White America can offer including a Harvard scholarship. He claims to have eschewed law to serve the people, but since winning election in his district, has been able to place his highly compensated wife in the highest paying corporate positions. He is associated with bigots and slum lords, who exploit African Americans both economically and spiritually. It is time to start asking the hard questions, and expose this elitist presidential wannabe for what he is - words not deeds.

[Caitlin]

First, the mass media is doing nothing to Obama by merely reporting his remarks or the data collected by the most recent polls. As an Obama fan, you may not have noticed, that the media has done anything but crucify Senator Obama. So, please "forgive" the media for doing its honest duty of reporting his standings in the polls and recent comments in San Francisco.

Why are national polls not reflecting it yet? Give it time - the ones from PA just did! Pennsylvania has long been the barometer of nat'l politics - we aren't called the Keystone state for nothing! - and the blatant trashing of our general population is an embarassment. Indiana is already up in arms over his comments and other, less "small-town" states will catch on, too.

As a small-town Pennsylvania, I for one am not bitter, clinging to my guns or my religion or my "xenophobia". I do not merely vote out of frustrations, but after careful thought and consideration. As a college student, I want a better life for my generation and future family. Above all, as a proud Pennsylvanian, I want a president who will stand up for us, not look down on us.

[thebrightlights]

It's interesting that this all comes up the week before the PA primary. I don't buy these polls one bit. This all just seems to be more vicious trickery from the Clinton campaign which week after week has been attacking Obama. This is yet another election that's turned into a complete joke... every four years I am reminded why this government is going downhill.

[TheNumantine]

Remember New Hampshire?

The press has got to break it's addiction to polls.

[Bud Ryerson]

When Sen. Obama said that some bitter, frustrated small town voters "cling to ... antipathy to people who aren't like them" that was just his fancy way of calling them racists. Nobody likes to be called a racist. Sen. Obama should apologize to them for that quickly.

[Sharon]

THis is so ridicules...what is wrong with the people are they afraid to say that they are upset, angry, or bitter...or is it they just plain do not like the word he used...but yet they will be the first ones to say they are upset the way things are....but yet they will follow someone who seems to have a hard time telling the whole truth...so the media shows...

[Honey Rogers]

If voters turn on Obama for that comment then they deserve Hillary Clinton. She won't be able to focus on our country because "Bill" will always be there supportive and destructive. Our country can not take another Clinton administration. Look how easily she lied about Bosnis. Her daughter was with her and there is absolutely no way she could have misspoken. Mothers don't forget those type of incidents when their daughter is involved. Why hasn't she got rid of Mr. Penn? Do you really think that $800,000.00 is just Bill's money. Wake up America and stop gtting hung up on nonsense. Worry about health care, education and bringing our troops home. No one will work with HIllary, she is loathed and you know it.

[Jim Farr]

This is a Hillary spin, masquerading as news. The suggestion that a campaign could turn on the use of a word like "bitter" is probably baloney, but frightening if true.

[IJ for Hillary]

It just shows that people around the Nation are readjusting with presidential candidates; and, obviously the Obama glare is dimming and Hillary is regaining her position. She was there and she is going to be there. Go Hillary, Go!

[Hobo Joe]

I am simply fed up with the Elitist Rhetoric spewing from Obama's mouth, and the Bitter Racial Diatribe of Michell Obama. Here is something she can be really proud of. She has the Right and Freedom to purchase one-way tickets (4) to any part of the world she may wish to go including Africa. Maybe she can find a lot more to be proud of in her homeland than she can in America.

[Clarke Hockwald]

Obama's polling results in Pennsylvania over the current furor have nothing to do with the latest National Polls. The poll done over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday does reflect a change in Pennsylvania voters views of Barack Obama, but none of the National Polls reflect what happened over the weekend. These words he spoke in San Francisco will have a real impact the general election, and will have an immediate impact on Independent voters in the upcoming Democratic primaries.

[Tim]

Great! Glad to see that Penn votes can see beyond Obama and his continual spin machine. Go Hillary!

[Bud Ryerson]

When Sen. Obama said that some bitter, frustrated small town voters "cling to ... antipathy to people who aren't like them" that was just his fancy way of calling them racists. Nobody likes to be called a racist. Sen. Obama should apologize to them for that quickly.

[Charles]

It is a credit to the people of PA and their ability to see B.O. for what he really is: A one term Senator from Illinois that was elected only by exploiting racial and class differences in a predominately African American community. He is NOT the product of "the struggle", but rather has benefited since birth from the very best of what White America can offer including a Harvard scholarship. He claims to have eschewed law to serve the people, but since winning election in his district, has been able to place his highly compensated wife in the highest paying corporate positions. He is associated with bigots and slum lords, who exploit African Americans both economically and spiritually. It is time to start asking the hard questions, and expose this elitist presidential wannabe for what he is - words not deeds.

[Steve]

Look at the ARG website. Their polls have not been very accurate in the states that have already voted.