New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Mark]

Did a Racist and Anti-American like Obama and his wife really have a chance anyway? Maybe know the Media will learn their lesson not to protect someone until they really know them. I guess Obama got his wish...Voters are going to CHANGE and not vote for him.

[Bush]

I am beginning to suspect that theyr'e trying to damage Obama's campaign as well. We all know where Hillary stands on trade and other major issues. Her husband wrote NAFT into law after George Bush Senior negotiated it during his term to represent the money interests. Whether it be the Bush dynasty or the Clinton dynasty. We will be screwed. At least with Obama there's somewhat of a question mark. It's a long shot but he may just turn the global money interests on their ear! Somehow I doubt that as well though.

[Tony O'Shea]

The people will speak on April 22nd. We will vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama mark my words. The "bitter" have spoken. We will not be silenced.

[Rick Ferri]

My, my. How the tables have turned. Now the media is out to get Democrats? HARDLY! Try being a Republican for a change and really experience how the media operates to support your Democrat candidates!

[Bret]

Operation chaos continues!

[Clintonians are evil]

Well, that is really good, because Babama I-Am-Sorry and the Sycho HATE Lady Billary Escobar, will keep fighting each other down to the dirty end. And the rejection and the hate against the Dems is increasing among the independents and the liberal Republicans, so Dems will lose not only the presidential election but all the proportional elections as well, as America is hating and rejecting this traitors bunch now.
So, now Big Mac just need to get Condie on the boat, and his 18 wheeler will destroy whatever outlasts the Dems mud fight. Big Mac - Rice 2008!!! RICE 2012!!! RICE 2016!!!

[Edna]

While, in fairness to Obama, I do think the criticism of this particular comment of his is overblown, I think it gets to a truth about him: he can be incredibly condescending and dismissive at times. Just ask us Florida Democrats, we've been on the receiving end of that "Obama phenomenon" for months now (since approximately January 29th, to be exact), yet the media has not noticed or cared. Hopefully, the dust-up over this "bitter" thing will get people noticing this condescending aspect of Obama, and remove the media-bestowed aura of perfection that surrounds him.

[Shelley in Portland OR]

For those commenting that Barack doesn't get fair media need to take a long hot shower. Give me a break - Hillary has been lambasted the entire time. She is the best candidate and is the one we need in office. Stop blaming the media for Barack's arrogant views!

[Laura MacMahon - Philadelphia PA]

This is UTTER RUBBISH!! Don Frederick, sir, you are SO out of touch with what WE Pennsylvanians feel I can only say: "How dare you? Walk a mile in our shoes and see if you don't feel BITTERNESS over the heinousness of this current, corrupt, and idiotic Administration." Obama will take PA and you'll cringe at your ill-informed opinion. Three words on polls: DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN ...

[Shelley in Portland OR]

For those commenting that Barack doesn't get fair media need to take a long hot shower. Give me a break - Hillary has been lambasted the entire time. She is the best candidate and is the one we need in office. Stop blaming the media for Barack's arrogant views!

[Miguel]

Michael Sigman, the difference in the polls can be explained by the fact Obama has been attracting the college-educated "elite" while Clinton has had stronger appeal among blue-collar voters.

While Obama supporters think those blue-collar voters are intellectually inferior, the truth is they're not stupid enough to vote for a man who looks down upon them.

So while he enjoys a bounce in the national polls for "telling it like it is" (in the eyes of the liberal elite), he's being hurt in PA among the voters he is so clumsily courting.

[Nik]

The media / Clinton Spin Machine / McCain are completely blowing this thing out of proportion.

I am not even a small-town person-- have lived in big cities like Houston, TX, New Orleans, and Austin, TX my entire life--- and I am BITTER AS HELL with the current government.

I don't turn to religion and guns-- but rather seek comfort in a bottle of Jack Daniels--- either way, Obama's message was that this country is FU*KED up right now, and people realize it and want change.

Hillary's campaign is constantly negative in their attacks of Obama, but cannot take criticism themselves. The Clintons have been proven to be LIARS, FRAUDS, and PANDERERS.

IF YOU AREN'T BITTER-- YOU HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION!

[James Pearse]

Just keep in mind that this is one poll of many which have been and will be conducted.

My suggestion: read up on aggregate polls. For example, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pennsylvania.html should soon post aggregate polling of Pennsylvania. This will be a much more accurate measure of how much Clinton is leading Obama.

Try not to only rely of Los Angeles Times or American Research Group. Do your research.

[kris]

i think this goes to show that unlike popular opinion among b.o. supporters, he is not invincible. he can make mistakes, and he did, and now he's getting angry at HILLARY for attacking him. just the kind of politics he said he wouldn't engage in! if you can't take the heat, get out of the primary!

[Andy]

What a bunch of BITTER freaks these pollsters (and those answering the polls) are! Obama should and will be president. Hilarious and McNasty are old-school, old-thought win-at-all-costs destroy the rest of the US politicians. Obama just tells it like it is. When will the rest of this country get their heads out of their butts and realize the sh*t-hole that we're in now with what's happened the last 16 years?? Get a f'in clue!!

[anthony]

Hillary said something similar last year.

The New York Sun reports that as Clinton attacked Obama, "reports surfaced of similar comments made by both Clintons to explain voter concerns about issues like religion, guns, and immigration. In an article on Time.com in November, for example, Mrs. Clinton was quoted as saying: 'During the 1990s, I cannot remember being asked about immigration. Why? Because the economy was working. And average Americans didn't have to go around looking for others to blame.'"

[Steve]

If Pennsylvanians are really that stupid that they would move away from Obama based on the misdirection of the Clintons, than they deserve what they get.
What did Obama say that was wrong? 'People are bitter because of their economic circumstances. Therefore, they cling or hold onto what sustains them.' That doesn't put down their faith or their traditions. They are strengthened by them.
Don't cling to sound bites. Listen with your brain!

[jodi]

The surprise is that it took soooo long for voters to see through the Obama's. PA voters have seen the light and Obama will hopefully go down here. You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but given enough time most people will see the fool....Obama. Vote Hillary Clinton or we will have McCain.

[Durant Imboden]

We'll see. The debate on Wednesday should have some impact on voters, and Hillary's attack on Obama ant the steelworkers' event on Sunday didn't exactly stir the crowd.

[kcdpas]

To judge a person is to see who he associated himself with and what he says and what he does. Voter are smart enough to make their judgement. That is the reason for Obama's down fall in Pen State poll.

[Lee]

Between this and his racist preacher I've learned all I need to about Obama. He comes off as a snob and possible racist. I'm so sick and tired of voting for who will do less damage to the country instead of being able to vote for someone who I actually believe will improve things for tax paying Americans.

Lee

[Guy Thompto]

...cause... Barack Obama has a way with B-O-L-O-G-N-A.

So much fun with the circus in town -- Barack on the high-wire and Hilary on the trapeze. Who will fall first?

[John Tapey]

Obama's comments were both accurate and enlightening. If Pennsylvania voters believe that Hillary Clinton, with a cumulative net worth of $250 million dollars, has any real connection with the working class, $26,500 dollar a year mill worker, then they deserve what they get. Mrs. Clinton has more negative polling numbers nationally than John McCain and Obama combined. McCain is tainted with neo-conservative (read facist) ideas and Clinton is simply an untruthful person on multiple levels. Obama any day of the week or year.

[PROGRESS]

This is ridiculous! Yesterday Obama was only 4 points behind - a virtual tie when you account for the margin of error! And now the media (a bunch of paid actors) is saying he's lost tremendous ground because of remarks he made that most voters in Penn agree with! This is indeed sabotage by the media. You will see come April 22 that Obama will keep his lead of Clinton if not increase it. His message does ring true with voters. That poll is inaccurate and conducted by people who work for the other side. I love how the media says he was on a downswing because of over saturation of ads! GO OBAMA GO!

[egc52556]

The ARG polls always swing widely. One week ago, ARG had the race tied. Two weeks ago ARG said it was 12%. Now this. Also, ARG has been the outlier in previous states' polls.

Let's wait and see.