New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots ...

in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Michael Sigman]

If Obama's comments were so disastrous, and if voters are turning against him, how come national his lead has increased to ten points in the Gallup tracking poll conducted over the weekend.

[Susan]

We the voters recognize what the mass media is trying to do to Obama. You're all in bed with the old guard. The people in Penn are coming out of the woodwork to defend his remarks today. Our voices will not be drowned out anymore!

[Roadkill Refugee]

Michael beat me to it. Both the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls show Obama having the widest margin over Hillary he's had since before the story broke last Friday. Hillary has been slipping. That's consistent with the booing and groans she got in Pittsburgh today when she started her tired attack lines on Obama. Real folks aren't feeling this story. The ARG poll was an outlier when it said Obama and Hillary were tied -- everyone recognized that -- and it's an outlier now to say he dropped 20 points.

[dunnage]

National polls mean little as the Dems will win California and New York regardless. It's Michigan, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania that count for Dems. to win the election.

[Sean]

We in PA will not be fooled - not by the media, and certainly not by the likes of McCain and Clinton who represent the worst in American politics.
Obama 08!

[Leroy]

Obama has a good lead in delegates. He can take loosing Pennsylvania by a huge margin. However, I think that if he is the nominee he has terribly injured his chances in the general electiion.

[Obama All The Way!]

Yeah, so I'll check back on next Tuesday after Senator Obama wins Pennsylvania, and we'll see all the pundits backtracking and explaining . . . I LOVE that part!

Obama '08

[Kim Louth]

THE LA TIMES IS SO PRO-CLINTON YOU MUST TAKE EVERYTHING THEY REPORT WITH A HUGE GRAIN OF SALT.

I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS POLL RESULT.

[pat]

It's unbelievable that people in Pennsylvia care more about a statement that Obama made than the fact that Hillary and Bill Clinton have added $800,000.00 thousand more dollars to their $109,000.000.00 million joint account. He made this money by brokering a deal for the Columbian Government to close a trade deal with the United States. What other underhanded deals against the people of this country will he broker while he and his wife are in the White House. Do the people of Pennsylvania think that she is really sincere in her position on NAFTA. GOOD LUCK FOLKS. YOU WILL DEFINITELY NEED YOU R FAITH AND ENJOY HUNTING WITH YOUR GUNS.

[Wayne]

Mr. Don Frederick, genius, ask anybody who took stat 101 would tell you the what "outlier" stands for. Polls need to have "trend" to be anything.

His national poll is holding up. Hillary today was "jarred" at a speech with the "bitter" comment.

So, sit tight, and watch how close it'll be next week.

[Jim]

I look forward to the day the old person vote dies off, because they are easily manipulated by mass media.

[T ross]

Obama as "Elitist"? lol.

The Clinton's ring of cronies resembles that of Bush's.

[Ronnie Stonestreet]

Obama will beat the bullet dodging Clinton everyday of the week, why does the press jump on a silly quote

Ronnie Stonestreet
Raleigh NC

[joan]

Obama would make a wonderful president. He's a good man, a leader and his presence in the White House would benefit not only the U.S. but the entire world. If we don't get that, than yeah, we deserve the government we elect. Obama is not an elitist; his father left him when he was 2 yrs old, he was raised by a single mother and sent off to live with grandparents. He just finished paying off his school loans. The Clintons raked in 110 million (at least) in the last few years. People, think!!

[Scott]

I just love to observe how wishy-washy, petty and hypocritical people are, it leaves me with such a feeling of confidence going into the upcoming Presidential election.

[Ronnie Stonestreet]

Obama will beat the lying Clinton family all day long. She should of got out by now but her quest for power will not let her.

[jim]

The more the public gets to know this guy, the more the voters will pick someone else. His latest comments just show his continued distain for the voters. Much like his lack of concern for the rights of the common man in Florida and Michigan.

[Doug]

No ones cares about him calling people "bitter." The elitist part of the comment was his description of people "clinging" to religion and guns.

[Lisa]

There is actually a poll at Kareem's blog:
www.latimes.com/kareem

[yourkillingmelarry]

Rasmussen and Gallup are holding. Clinton just got boo'd in PA trying to inject "bitter". It is becoming quite clear she over played her hand here. Barack literally made her the butt of the joke with Annie Oakley. I'm getting a feeling that this elite "bitter" thing did not stick.

[kanobi11]

Interesting and amazed... Your polls came as a shock to me though, 'cos when Bill Clinton made the same comments in 1991, his comments were then not considered as bitter -

"The reason (George H. W. Bush's tactic) works so well now is that you have all these economically insecure white people who are scared to death," Clinton was quoted saying by the Los Angeles Times in September 1991."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/13/bill-clinton-flashback-al_n_96433.html

Furthermore, Thomas Frank, the author who redefined the perception of the red state/blue state divide in America, says he doesn't find Sen. Barack Obama's comments on the bitterness of small-town Midwesterners all that alarming.

"People are bitter in small towns," Frank told the Huffington Post. "People are bitter everywhere. I don't know if you have seen the stock market -- people are bitter about their situation. It doesn't strike me as a very controversial statement."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/14/thomas-frank-on-obama-not_n_96528.html

Even fox news went to small towns in PA and interviewed some people, who said on camara that they are bitter and that Obama is right (I just can't find the link anymore). So it amazes me that people are now saying they disagree w/ Obama, simply because he told the truth. I find this hard to believe, very hard to believe. But then, you as a publication house have the power to shape peoples opinion and views, so this might as well be a strategy to encourage people to disagree w/ Obama. I am very disappointed...

[Cheryl Carroll]

If Clinton is the nominee I'm voting for her, If Barack is nominated I'm voting for McCain.

[Bill]

Obama's comments will be forgotten in a few more days. Things that are as minor as this are a quick burn unless the media really want to try to keep it alive, which seems unlikely. Why aren't they calling Hillary a gun nut after her comments?

[GHarri]

Not "bitter," not Rev. Wright, not anything can change the fact that Obama has already earned the nomination. She can bring him down here and there, but she can't catch up. Meanwhile, McCain is rummaging through resumes to find his strongest possible running mate. Obama will have no time to prepare for November, let alone create the strongest possible ticket, as long as she stays in. Here's how the VP process should be working:
http://digits.hrblock.com/ssDigits/digits.php?rType=1&sPath=1140&sNode=1140&uId=198

[pierce]

I imagine the questioning went something to the effect of "Now that you know that Obama thinks you are bitter, would you rather vote for him or Clinton?"

There is no way that the same poll could accurately record peoples reaction to the "bitter" comment, AND determine who people are voting for. Without the list of poll questions, and possible responses, this whole article is just some reporter hyping a story for ad revenue.