LAT Poll: Rev. Wright flap might have helped Barack Obama in Pa.

Well, it was hard to see this one coming. A new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll just released on the website found that 24% of likely Pennsylvania voters thought more highly of Barack Obama after his handling of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, while 15% said they thought less of him. The vast majority -- 58% -- said it made no difference.

The poll was conducted in the next three states to hold primaries -- Pennsylvania on April 22, and North Carolina and Indiana on May 6. In Indiana, reaction to Obama's handling of the controversy were slightly reversed, with 23% saying they thought less of him and 20% saying they thought more highly. But 56% said it had no effect. In North Carolina, 27% said they thought more highly, 20% said they thought less of Obama and 51% said it didn't matter.

And in what can only be seen as a message to the superdelegates who will likely decide who gets the Democratic nomination, majorities in all three states said they believe the superdelegates should back whichever candidate won the popular vote in the superdelegate's state. So much for the "vote your heart" argument.

There's some other interesting morsels in there too -- such as Obama closing to within five points of Clinton in Pennsylvania, though the poll was conducted April 10-14 while the "bitter" controversy was playing out. Obama also had a five-point lead in Indiana, a Rust Belt state that should be playing to Clinton's strength among working-class voters, and a 13-point lead in North Carolina. The leads in Pennsylvania and Indiana were within the poll's margin of error.

Another surprise: The number of undecideds. In Pennsylvania, 12% said they still didn't know for whom they were voting, a category that jumped to 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina. That means in each state the undecideds exceeded the gap between the two contenders. 

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Jack's Son]

I never thought I would see the day that I would agree with Hillary about anything, but her point that Senator Barach H. Oboma is an elitist is right on the mark. I also believe Barach H. Oboma is a very inteligent politician and doesn't say anything he hasn't carefully thought out to have the maximum affect. What I mean is, he knew the public reaction was going to be negative, and that he would emerge stronger having gained respect from his party faithful for saying something no thoughtful person would even consider but was designed get the publics attention big time.
To that end he has succeeded and will receive an atta boy from George Soros and Reverend Wright.

[G.D.Pollster]

I am an undecided voter, and I support our undecided candidate!

If undecided doesn't win, I'm voting for McCain!

[whynotnow]

Is it possible that the voters can tell the difference between a media circus sideshow and a real issue? Is it coneivable that voters can distinguish "guilt by association" from actual personal beliefs and can weigh the importance of an outright lie (think Bosnia) compared to a verbal slip-up (think "bitter")? Yes they can!

Will the media go back to reporting and analyzing issues or stay stuck on the spin cycle? (Rhetorical question)

[GC]

Problem here is the question of who those 24% were planning on voting for at the time. If all those people were already going to vote for him, whoopy tee doo.

[Harry Grace]

I don't know if polls really mean anything or are just antiquated dinosaurs that don't reflect how mercurial our current social climate can be, but if these are true, then its heartening that the media's slavish love for the Clinton-McCain campaign has backfired. It looks like people are smart enough to put Wright and the "bitter" quote into context, and to see how pandering the Clinton-McCain camp can be, and reject it. Now if the media would show such wisdom, then maybe we can have political dialogue without outside agitators trying to set the agenda.

[VarsityBlueNYC]

I've always wondered if the admittance by those ignorantly against Obama that he was indeed a church-goer for 20+ years as he had always stated albeit at Wright's church in fact helped him. How? By obliterating their lies that he was Muslim. Before the write saga many Dems/Pubs were under the false assumption that Obama was Muslim. Sad as it may be more people were then willing to forgive his ties to Wright then to accept him if he was still deemed Muslim.

[larry]

I think the only surprise here is the fact journalists are surprised that the Wright story didn't have an impact on most ordinary people. The surprise stems from journalists believing their own narrative of what's important, what's not, and what people are supposed to think. For proof, see today's polls indicating the "bitter" fuss, supposedlyfatal to Obama, hasn't had much impact, either.

[Marc]

What a joke! Your Poll of a few hundred pollers referenced on RealClearPolitics.com is an insult to any Pure & Applied Mathematician of Probability & Statistics.

Poll at least 1,000 registered Democrats from either Indiana and Pennsylvania, across the Demographics of the State before you waste our time with your slant.

I'd be just as insulted if your paper had endorsed Clinton and pulled this kind of insult to Mathematics.

Leave Mathematics for professionals and not Social Science Majors and their cursory knowledge of Math.

Us Engineers had to tutor these morons and its clear they learned nothing when they took their requirement for Business Statistics at the University they attended.

I specifically am addressing this joke of a Survey:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/bloomberg_la_times_poll_0410_14.pdf

[San Ying]

Hillary told a lie that was proven by news cameras about her arrival in Bosnia in 1996 or 5. She also told a lie that her father named her after Sir Edmund Hillary after he climbed Everest. Hillary birthdate proves that also was a lie. If Americans want a proven liar to be their next president, the world doesn't want a proven liar to be America's next president.

[Julie, Burbank]

Not surprised. I am one who does think more of Obama at this point, less of Clinton post-Bosnia/Sniper and less of John McCain in general because he's turned his back on a lot of the stances that made him palatable to a moderate indie like myself. Sen. Obama is much more in touch with and empathetic with the widest range of of our citizens and has the team-building skills to tackle the very sensitive, tough and serious problems our country faces.

He is a true and trustworthy patriot -- unlike other candidates who insult troops with boldface lies about dodging bullets or myopic war positions which continue to drain our financial and troop resources.

Looking ahead.

[Anne]

Larry, I think you've hit it right on the head! I've been reading different blogs and comments online about this and other political flaps today, and it seems like a pretty decent majority believes that the "bitter" comments were being mis-spun by the Clinton and McCain camps, as well as by the pundits. However, I know that when I turn on CNN or any other news channel, I'm going to hear the talking heads acting shocked that he could say such a thing and make his campaign sound like the Titanic. Indeed, I think the results on April 22 may come as a shock to the media. Not to many of us everyday people who try to read as much as we can and get a better rounded picture of these candidates than the mainstream media is giving us, though. It really DOES seem like many members of the media live in a different world than the rest of us, despite their access to the voting public. Time will tell!

[hinnis]

It is becoming increasingly obvious that like the Bush elections of 2000 and 2004, this nomination process is fixed. No one in their right mind could believe that the fact that Obama's "mentor and spiritual adviser" of 20 years is a racist and anti-American nut job, could actually help his image with Americans. But this is what the corporate media is trying to tell us. No matter how may lies, deceptions and scandals that come out about Obama, the corporate media tells us his approval ratings go up, rather than down. What does this mean? Well, we either have the stupidest electorate since 1930's Germany, or the media is in on the fix. Whichever it is, it is getting rather ridiculous. Well, the more the media tries to push Obama down my throat, the more this Democrat will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee.

[tlsmith1963]

Obama isn't an elitist. There was nothing elitist at all about what he said. He never called rural people stupid. Maybe Obama is still doing well in the polls because people aren't falling for how the media always twist his words around. Every time the media attack him, I want him to win even more.

[jj]

Obama took a non-stand on the race issue following the Wright flap. Does he agree in principle with Jeremiah Wright's take on the status of race relations or doesn't he? Does he support affirmative action or doesn't he? Does he run as a black-american candidate or doesn't he? Just by proclaiming that "we should confront race issues" doesn't define his stand any better nor does it offer any solution. His responses to the Wright flap are typical of the rhetoric that he spews so eloquently.

[Jim]

The only "elitist" we have in this nomination....

....Is the one who thinks she is so entitled to the nomination that she can FLAT OUT LIE to all of us and if/when we find out it does not matter. (Bosnia: poetry or sniper fire? NAFTA: I was for it for 10 years and now I'm against it?)

....Is the one who thinks we are too stupid to see right through her pandering ways: was for gun control/then ooooh no guns are great and I used to shoot with my dad/to it's not important when I last fired a gun.

....Is the one disingenuous enough to suggest "Obama can be my VP" when she's lagging behind in nearly every indicator conceivable (popular votes, delegates, states won, money raised....) Did she actually think we'd be so stupid to not see right through that trick?

I am bitter....that Hillary continues to bash the sure Democratic nominee, and the only trick she has now is to bash him rather than to tout her own attributes.

She has long run out of positive things to say about herself: "experience" is a double-edged sword when that experience is "DC Insider" and "Wife of CAFTA/NAFTA-Supporter-To-This-Day".

Once people ask her "WHAT EXPERIENCE" she's pretty quiet because she'll tell another LIE (example: "I've brought so many jobs to NY State" while NY people say "I don't think so....").

No wonder Hillary's support base is solidly comprised of the "high school education or less" category....she figures she can pull the wool over their eyes.

[libby]

This LA Times poll is completely off what recent polls have been showing for Indiana and Penn. Rasmussen new poll released today has her at 9 points ahead and Survey USA released polls today and has been the most accurate so far this primary season has Hillary up by 14 points in Penn and 16 points in Indiana. It's ridiculous how the LA Times is desperately propping up Obama and his campaign. Also the Wright flap HAS hurt Obama in all the recent polls. The LA Times poll is the only one that has even said it was a plus. Rack up another bad poll.

[Trey]

My basic problem with this is the fact that THE MEDIA DIDN'T DO THEIR JOB!!! They hit Obama about these statements, but he said similar statements on Charlie Rose show in 2004. Why didn't they know this. Now they SCREAM SUPRISE and say he sneaks BEHIND CLOSED DOORS IN SAN FRANCISCO oooooh. If they had done their research they would know. If they aren't reporting correctly on that, how lazy have they truly become????

The bigger problem for Clinton and McCain is, I'm from Indiana and there aren't too many people in the Rural Towns. You win Penn. if you get the majority of Philly, Pitt, and the commuter counties. Indiana you win with Indianapolis (commuter counties), Ft. Wayne, Chicago-Gary area, college towns and the Cities on I-69. The people the Republican's are banking on have moved and passed away since 2004 and American's have changed. Too bad the Republican's and Clinton's haven't.

[JimF]

And there is another poll that showed Clinton's lead in Penn jumping to 20%. Have we learned absolutely nothing from New Hampshire? Let's allow the voters to actually vote before telling them what theyv'e decided, can't we? If you actually think that Pastor Wright and Obama's "Elmer Fud won't vote for me because he's racist" comments didn't hurt him, I've got some Bear Stearns stock to sell you.

[mcr]

Sunday morning in the city.

If theres one thing we all have, its an opinion. A place to sit is the other. But the one question that is more important is, is it a validated opinion? Or are we just talking thru our hats and blowing out of the other end? The way political rivals often do? Nothings worse than a dead head opinion with no loralist support and no place to be somebody. Who is agreeing in the outset? Cross the bridge and people may be saying something different? They usually do. Some good, some not so good. Coke or coffee? I found one contrediction. Early on in this campaign I found out. Never believe everything people say in an election. It could be a smere out of envy. For fear of defeat. Never the less the things people say often reflects a nonconforming committment. Entertaining one's own outrage in a funk. Especially when we hear a candidate say they are going to do or not going to do something. Reason? In presidential politics things change in a N.Y. second. Just ask the former Governor. So nobody knows exactly what either party might do or say once the gloves are on. But forming an opinion worth hearing? Now theres a task. It could ever mean a systemic risk for all we know. All we can do in this race or case is close both eyes. Pin the tail on the donkey. Hope for the better, grab the basket and run. Since our country is compounding acute difficulty at home and abroad. Who in their right mind is going to overlook an attending critic with his foot stuck out? Well, ex-cuse me for stating it. But when the shoe gets on the other foot, a good defense usually makes for a great offense. So don't cry when the deficit roll back over opinions comes trickling down from Mount Moriah. That only takes gravity and an itty bitty nudge. To start the bolders rolling down hill. We could go on forever recounting the negative things people relate to in standup. On a roll, even if you don't like the players or the dirty laundry they keep proverbally pelting each other with. Before the other shoe hits the floor people will learn, in time. Like sachamolly choo choo. Its all in the game of partisans in earnest. When you find one, if you got a ticket you ride. If not, its a foot race to the unemployment line. Better luck next time, Moe. What do we know? To date we all admit its a high energy caterpult into the whitehouse. Its becomes increasingly difficult not to pay close attention. Since a woman, a very seniore' citizen and black guy is running this time out. Reminded of the things people say when the muzzle is off. Take Jeremiah Wright for an instant. If you went long, you might get pelted with one of thoses fifty cent words at the five and dime. Or you might even wind-up with a buck and a half in suck'um up slanders on the way back from the dollar store. One or the other. You try everything to save a nickel here and there. In the poor house, stuck on change. We all know there has to be a reason intelligent minds resort to retorical negative foreplay in a national election. There has to be, talk its excitable. The get screwed attitude is running higher than bulk oil and corn starch the day after. With both baffles wide open. Either side of the late divide people say the darndest things. With all the stoops, stops and brandy out. Just ask the pastor, Jeremiah. Pastor what do you have to say about that... Barack is good, is good, is good. We'll get back to the pastor before he steps down. Realizing the anomally in panthomime pandemic. All over scalding remarks we might do well without. Never the less, the trail must be worth a little more than the eye can see. For a sack or pack of obsinaties and nay sayings an exorcist would divvy in perfectly, who knows? Full house or a census count if you had mercy you might have something there. In a presidential electorate everybody is at somebody for something or other. The question is... what? Whats it worth to ya'? Roll out the barrel. There has got to be a final resting place for unwanted remarks, timid tortables and gall burned gibberish. Onward, on to their final resting place! Ever been there? Well would you like to? Look at me. I'm on my way to heaven and I'm so glad. Don't look now, brudda. But in the twinling of an eye we're probably already half way there. Even before the deal is done. Before we go, pastor, run that by me again, about: Senator Clinton was never called a what? Would it make it all better if somebody called her one, just for the sake of arguement or Jeremiah Wright?

[John H. Farr]

Ridiculous. It was NOT hard to see this coming, not if you've been paying any serious attention to Obama. The man has a higher sense of self-awareness than any of the so-called journalists assigned to cover him, and people pick up on that unconsciously. Because the man is speaking from his center, people trust him.

Obama is more than just another politician. His candidacy is symbolic, because he represents a different way to think about America. All the dodos with a heavy stake in the past will either miss the boat or fight like hell to pull him down.

[2dumb2think]

just to set the facts straight.... obama's now famous comment was part of a long response while answering a question. he was basically asked what some of those in the room who were going to campaign for him in pennsylvania might expect. his answer was basically that rural voters no longer believe in government to help there economic situation, explain what my campaign can do for them and recognize that they have been driven by wedge issues: religion (antiabortion, gay marraige), guns (2nd amendment issues), and immigration.

read for yourself and see if the media (and clinton and mccain) have turned this into something it wasnt.

OBAMA: So, it depends on where you are, but I think it's fair to say that the places where we are going to have to do the most work are the places where people feel most cynical about government. The people are mis-appre...I think they're misunderstanding why the demographics in our, in this contest have broken out as they are. Because everybody just ascribes it to 'white working-class don't wanna work -- don't wanna vote for the black guy.' That's...there were intimations of that in an article in the Sunday New York Times today - kind of implies that it's sort of a race thing.

Here's how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn't buy it. And when it's delivered by -- it's true that when it's delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter).

But -- so the questions you're most likely to get about me, 'Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What's the concrete thing?' What they wanna hear is -- so, we'll give you talking points about what we're proposing -- close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama's gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we're gonna provide health care for every American. So we'll go down a series of talking points.

But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you'll find is, is that people of every background -- there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you'll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I'd be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you're doing what you're doing.

[UpNorthwest]

I shall never vote for Sen. Clinton, she is weak on campaign ethics - as seen many times this year. Four years ago and eight years ago I had higher regard for Sen McCain, but he incorrectly has gone to the political right (as they are wrong, their creed is greed). Sen. Obama, is the only choice for this country if we are to have a more perfect union.

[Harvey]

You kn ow I just don't seem to understand this love for Obama. He is a good looking, articulate, phoney. The man was a close friend of Rev Wright for twenty years and said nothing, did nothing, alighned himself with a Farakhan lover. You can't blame Obama for his pastors teachings but you can blame him for his reactions to it, or lack thereof. This goes so to the core of this man, a clear manipulator and politician. Brilliant no doubt, but a man of low character and judgement at the least. I should run. I'm good looking and glib, an d I can say 'a chicken in every pot for everyone. But I'm no more qualified than he is and I'm a decent person. I marched in 160 with Coretta King in Washington for integration. It would be great to have a black President, but a man of honor. Obama's past reveals him, and for me whatever beautiful words, hope, change, unity etc. ring false. He is quite a charmer, but beware America if the masses - the young and the others who want to be blind vote him in. Ans disgraceful to NBC and CNN - I can't even watch them anymore. They are SO outrageously biased. Who is behind them? I know about Ted Turner, but who runs NBC? It's discusting this fawning over Obama. The View - control yourselves ladies. Where are people of honor and decency who see the truth for what it is and don't color it falsely? This is a man who's actions, affiliations, and experience do not qualify him to lead our country.

[chris]

it is impossible for obama to win in November and he has only himself and his supporters to blame for the inevitable fall of his campaign

[Prez]

Up to now I have been worried by the seeming naivete of the general public when it comes to fanciful and flowery statements made by politicians and the media. And the rest of the world quite wonders how most Americans can seem so unaware when their legs are being pulled through lies and false rhetorics, anybody with sound reasoning could see through. Hillary Clinton is power hungry, there's no doubt about it and she won't stop at nothing for that, even if it means destroying it for the Democratic party. The recent comments by Obama, when read in their proper contexts, don't show any form of scorn or elitist thinking, rather those are statements grounded in truth. Hillary uses that to further her campaign and in my view, it shows how naive she regards the general public. People should be very careful. This is not rocket science, to see through the lure, and recent news show that overall people are waking up to the reality of false rhetorics and shameful politics. God bless America.