Hillary Clinton breaking away in one final Pennsylvania poll

At least one poll that had shown Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a true horse race in Pennsylvania as recently as late last week reported a clear trend toward Clinton as primary day finally arrived.

The Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll gave Clinton a mere 1 percentage-point lead in results released last Wednesday (a smaller margin than any other survey gave her, though some others also had it close), and figures released Saturday had Clinton up by three points.

But that margin jumped to six points as of Sunday, and surged to 10 points as of Monday. The precise numbers: Clinton 51%, Obama 41%.

Here's pollster John Zogby's quick take on what he sees at work: "Sounds like a radio station's call letters, but remember WECM -– white, ethnic, Catholic men. That is what put Clinton into her double-digit lead here in Pennsylvania."

Zogby, like many in his business, has had a mixed record in forecasting outcomes in this year's Democratic race. But if he's right on this one, the Clinton camp should get the fresh jolt of momentum that it has been seeking from Pennsylvania voters.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Jaycal]

Obama is CORRUPT, a LIAR, and his slogan of change an ILLUSION.

1) CORRUPT: A houseowner wants to sell both a house and adjoining land. Obama can afford to buy only the house. No problem, the criminal Rezko to the rescue. Rezko pays full price for the land, whereas Obama gets a discount of $300,000 on the house. Nice to have criminal friends like this!!! (ref ABC News)

2) LIAR: Obama claims he did not know about Wright's America-hating (God damn America) and racist views till it was revealed in the mainstream media in March 2008. Obama attended Wright's church for 20 years, was married by Wright, had his children baptized by Wright, donated over $20,000 to Wright's church and named his book "Audacity of Hope" after one of Wright's sermons. You really believe after 20 years and all this he did not know?

3) ILLUSION: Exelon Corporation had not disclosed radioactive leaks at one of its nuclear plants in Illinois. Obama, a senator for Illinois introduces a bill to make disclosures mandatory. Seems like Exelon doesn't like it. Each draft of the new bill by Obama goes more and more towards Exelon till disclosures end up being "voluntary". What gives? How about $250,000+ donations by Exelon!!! Obama is not change, he is WASHINGTON BUSINESS AS USUAL. (ref NYT)

People need to realize that Hillary has been fighting for them all along. All the way back to 1993 when she tried to introduce universal health care.

[Stephen Gianelli]

There is a later poll out today that has Clinton up by 16 points:
American Research Group, Inc. just released its April 21, 2008 Pennsylvania poll results: Clinton 56%, Obama 40%--a 16 point lead.

[Tiffany Kelly]

It would be a great shame if Hillary had to drop out of the race due to lack of funds. I do not believe funding should be a factor when running for office. I have to vote republican today--although I do NOT want McCain to win the Presidency. If Obama wins the Dem. nomination, you better believe I will be voting for McCain. Yes, Obama speaks well (as I have heard numerous people say in the last few weeks) I wasn't aware "speaking well" made a great president. Get real people. Vote for the right candidate: Not because they are a black male or a white female or a white POW. Vote for the person who's views you agree with--with plans that make sense--for ideas that will work.
Who cares so and so would be the First (Fill in the blank) President. Use your brain and your right to vote to pick the right candidate not because you want someone to be the first. There are alot of issues out there right now and each candidate has their own views about how the country should move forward--vote for what makes sense.

[Paul Tinker]

But more to the point, she needs to win about 60% in every remaining race to even tie with Obama at the end of primary season. That is not going to happen. We don't expect the truth from Hillary anymore, but the media is dishonest in its reporting when it leads people to believe she still has a chance. The real news at this point is that she would rather bloody the party and the Democratic nominee than admit defeat.

[TH]

Ummm... 10 points? after leading by 20? Fresh Jolt? no way... minor push, yes. Y'see, here's the deal:
Here's what I just don't get: Obama willl win the majority of the delegates, even if the following H-friendly primary numbers come to pass:
.........H% O%
PA ...60 40 (and,it will never be that lopsided)
IN .....53 47
WV ..42 58
OR ...50 50
SD ....54 46
Guam 50 50
NC ....52 48 (no way H wins NC)
KY ..46 54
MT ....47 53
PRico 50 50

If Hilary gets 51% of the superdelegates, she'll have 159 and Obama will have 152.

While somewhat arbitrary, all those numbers are even optimistic for Clinton and guess what? If it breaks down that way Obama is likely to have 2066 delgates (need 2025 to win) -- employing a neat little delegate counter found on the politics page of CNN. Stop telling me he can't land this fish before the Convention -- he can and in all likelihood, he will.

[John S]

Yes, "white, ethnic, Catholic men", with h.s. diplomas, and red-necks, who would never vote for a black man.

Simple. We thought we were passed that, but apparently not.

[Jo]

Can you say Operation Chaos?!!!
Go HILLARY!
Otherwise, I might get bitter and begin chanting, "Change, Bush, Iraq, Change, Bush, Iraq, Change, Bush....."

[Corro'll Driskell]

I don't see a race card played during these primaries. I actualy see more of a culture card.

[Fred]

Too little credit is being given in this coverage to the 150,000+ PA voters who switched voter registrations temporarily from Republican to vote in the Democratic primary, but who expect to switch back, or vote their party, in November. Many of them are claiming to be influenced by the "Operation Chaos" movement being promoted by Rush Limbaugh. That number represents a few percentage points, and is leaning toward Hillary.

[Joe]

Any victory for Clinton of less than 10% can't really be spun as a victory. She needs, what? At least 15% or better in ALL remaining states to get the delegates she needs?

Anything less than that only makes it harder to catch up. Actually, she's already dead as far as being the candidate and just hoping for lightning to strike. But lightning is just as likely to strike her as Obama at this point.

And it may already have with that new story about Bill putting his foot in his mouth again. I honestly don't think Bill has helped her campaign any, except in name recognition. How many times has he nearly wrecked things? Especially after that comment about how her campaign was finished unless they won Ohio and Texas.

[Kristian]

I'd bet we'll see Clinton win by at least ten points.

However, that's like 16 delegates to gain.

Obama is easily going to match Clinton in Supers. This gain is only going to be skin deep. There's no way she'll reach him in NC and Indiana will at least tie. By May 6th we should see a definitive end-game.

Just my thoughts, there's a lot of wiggle room to argue this.

[apathy]

The only pole I pay attention to hangs slightly to the left. Will the media ever stop shoving this garbage down our throats and stop trying to predict everything with their Ms. Cleo techniques and just report the events as they unfold? I guess there isn't enough going on in the world for them to fill up all their extra time with.

[JudyGee]

Obama in all his flatulence has decreed that it is not whether Hillary Clinton wins Pa., but by how much. That's pretty funny. I wonder how that works for him. His showing in the big states that Hillary won handily is poor. In Florida he was trounced by Hillary even though, as we all now know, he ran his ad campaign during the Florida primary, in Florida (just in case it gets spun).
I am a Hillary Clinton supporter, of course. It is bizarre to hear this Obama bag of wind with his racist views, his anti-American wife and his spiritual advisor who hates whites, continually belching up yet more rules the rest of us should follow. You know, like the one about what questions journalists are allowed to ask. Or, the rule about not having to answer for his close encounters with the most strange and corrupt pals since Boss Tweed.
Why does the media repeat what this crazy head says?

[krh]

Hillary, Obama, I remember when i was a child. My sister and i used to argue just like you two.
GO OPPERATION CHAOS!!!

[vote4thebest]

The numbers, by all counts, show a race that is dead heat. Yet many folks in the media and the so called party elders keep calling her to bow out or introducing new definition of a 'win' such as margin. It is nothing short of bullying and sexism!

Even if Clinton wins by 1 vote, then she should be the nominee because Obama fails to deliver yet again, another big state considering that he is outspending her by 3 or even 5 to 1, same thing that he did in Texas and Ohio.

He can't buy the voters and can’t connect with the base - he will loose in Nov. It is that simple.

[vote4thebest]

It is amazing to see some of the posts who were playing the white guilt card by saying the white will never vote for a black african. Well, how about asking the reverse question - why is it ok for the 90% of the blacks to be racists and votes for an african candidate?