A Pennsylvania primer: What to make of Tuesday's numbers

Barack Obama made the type of admission today that doesn't often come from the mouths of politicians.

"I'm not predicting a win," he told radio station KDKA in Pittsburgh, referencing Pennsylvania's Tuesday primary.

Even candidates obviously on their last legs (think Republican Mike Huckabee, on the eve of the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries) are loath to rule out a victory.

But though Obama took a pass on cockeyed optimism, he did offer a measuring stick for his performance in the Keystone State: "I'm predicting it's going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect."

So what would constitute a better-than-expected showing for Obama? And what sort of winning margin does Hillary Clinton need to get a real boost from Tuesday's results? Here's our take:

• A Clinton triumph of 5 percentage points or less will leave Obama and his aides feeling fine as attention turns to the May 6 North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Alternatively, even though the slimmest of wins will be greeted gleefully by Clinton supporters at a primary-night rally in Philadelphia, offstage neither the candidate nor her aides will be doing much celebrating. (Obama, tellingly, will be in Evansville, Ind., as the votes roll in.)
• A Clinton triumph of 6 to 9 percentage points will preserve the race's status quo -- Obama ahead by all measures, but not by enough to significantly increase pressure on Clinton to drop out. In the only category that really counts -- delegates -- a Clinton win within this range will probably give her only a minimal gain. That's because, as our friend Josh Drobnyk of the Allentown Morning Call recently wrote, only a third of Pennsylvania's 158 pledged delegates at stake Tuesday are allotted according to the statewide vote. The the rest get divided based on the margin of the outcomes in each of the state's 19 congressional districts. And where Obama wins, he often wins big.
• A Clinton triumph of 10 or more percentage points will put some wind in her political sails. Most immediately, it will increase the pressure on Obama to win solidly in North Carolina (where most polls have shown him comfortably ahead) and it will intensify the spotlight on Indiana as the next potential fulcrum in the overall contest. Long-term, it will give the Clinton forces more ammunition to make the case that she's best positioned to win at least three of these four key states come November: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[frank]

Its done. The other primary's were play, this is for real. And when it comes to real, all ducks line up behind Clinton. Very few will take a chance with Obama, as this time in history is the real thing.

[Jeffrey]

Yes, it's the real thing and HAS BEEN all along. Many more states, 100's of thousands more votes which of course includes many big states and who's on top and will stay on top?

[Raji Rab]

Obama will be nominated..Excellent choice.. but time is set to see Another 4 years for the republicans..

[BB]

That reminds me of what my girlfriend said, the last time we played pool. "Those last ten games that you won meant nothing. THIS one is for real." Obviously, she was drunk at the time.

[MsSwin]

It's not Annie get your gun, it's Annie get OUR guns.

July 13, 2006 Hillary voted against amendment 4615 to H.R. 5441:

“To prohibit the confiscation of a firearm during an emergency or major disaster if the possession of such firearm is not prohibited under Federal or State law.”

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=109&session=2&vote=00202

[JTS]

frank,

Yep, those Pennsylvanians are mighty special. So special the rest of the country don't mean an iota of difference.

Back in reality, I keep seeing these ranges of margin and what they supposedly signify. Who comes up with this stuff?! What is the reasoning behind it? From what I recall, Hillary could win by 20% and the overall mathematics wouldn't really change that much.

This groupthink poppycock.

[Anee]

Right, when is the last time Snobama won a primary, he's getting use to losing.
He is going to lose tomorrow, despite all the money he had, couldn't buy the election. Thank goodness there is still time to reverse the damage he has done to our Dem. party.

[Ron]

It is unfortunate that all the attention has been directed at Obama and all of his faults and we have heard absolutely nothing of all the disasterous things that Hillary has done. Unless the Obama camp does some research and create doubt about her skill less leadership capacity, he is toast. She compares herself to Harry Truman and it goes unchallenged.
It's almost like the people who advised him earlier on are gone. Maybe they became too comfortable. I hear it Baracks voice. There is not as much exicetement. One thing is for sure Barack Obama has to stop speaking the truth and really attack Clinton or he may have to wait anther four years to try again, because there is no way in hell that she wins against McCain.

[don murdza]

Damage Obama has done to Democratic Party? Nothing in comparison to what Hillary has done. How do you think the Republicans gained control of congress in the 94 election? Hillary's humongous health care plan that when finished, the regulations were over 5 feet tall and weighed 112 lbs. I don't think she has changed much.

[Steve Wimer]

No matter who wins this primary or the election, America loses. Edwards was the only candidate of the people. Sure, he was rich, but he got that way defending poor people fighting corporations. Obama, Clinton, and McCain have all been brought, and paid for by special interests.

[Annie]

Oh, I hope not. I despise mud-slinging, and Obama's lack of such behavior early in the race is what made me like him better (well, besides agreeing with his policies a bit more). I want politicians to stop bashing the other guy and instead tell me what they, themselves, are going to do right and how they are going to make things better. (I know that's not going to happen, of course, but it's nice to have a dream).

[TXCourtney]

Anee said: "Right, when is the last time Snobama won a primary, he's getting use to losing."

Actually it was March 11 in Mississippi where he won 51% to 37%. I'm sure that really took the wind out of his sails...

[Tannim]

The real questions to answer here:

A) What does an Obama win at varying levels signify?
B) Will the Limbuagh "Operation Chaos" effort cause a lot of Republicans to jump over and hand a possible Republican upset to Dr. Paul, who is still in the race and actively campaigning in his born state of PA?

And the satirical questions to answer, for those who saw WWE Raw last night:

A) Can Hillary rebound from the Samoan Drop Umaga gave her?
B) Can Obama ever speak again after the Samoan Spike Umaga gave him?
C) Whatcha gonna do when Hillarymania runs wild on you?
D) Do ya smeeelllllllll what Barack is cooking?

[gloria]

The complete audicity of Obama to think he, with ZERO experience and ZERO track record can even run for President let alone win.

He is a poser, raised in an elitist white world...I am a minority and trust me THIS GUY ISIN'T.

Why not run a school teacher at least they know the common man. This guy is George Bush junior.....dumb and dumber!

[bhagwan deol]

the real thing is that obama is an EGOISTIC SPOILER.
even if he wins the nomination he will TORN TO PIECES BY THE REPUBLICAN MACHINE and end loserswill be american people.HILLARY IS THE BEST PERSON TO LEAD THE COUNTRY THROUGH THESE TROUBLED TIMES. obama has succeeded in attracting young voters by his empty rhetoric which will be shattered by repulicans. some of his wins are a product of devious cross over voting by republicans to keep the dems fued going. UNFORTUNATELY A SELF CENTERED MAN LIKE OBAMA WILL NEVER ADMIT IT AND HE GIVES A HOOT FOR BENEFIT OF AMERICANS. HE IS ONLY FOR HIMSELF
bhagwan deol . los angeles

[Top Secret]

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

A U.S. News report released on April 16, 2008 puts Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt and Mike Huckabee on the same level.

"John McCain's big economic speech today was sort of one part Ronald Reagan (cut taxes, cut spending), one part Mike Huckabee (help for workers; Main Street is as important as Wall Street), and one part Teddy Roosevelt (criticism of "reckless CEOs and speculators").

Huckabee's rapid rise in the Presidential race is capturing the hearts and minds millions of ordinary people all around America.

To be achieve this prestigous level so soon with history's greatest U.S. Presidents in such a remarkable short time period is an outstanding accomplishment for Mike Huckabee.

The alliance between McCain and Huckabee 08 ticket has offically begun. Huckabee's new PAC web site to promote McCain. And McCain calling Wall Street "greedy", was Mike's central theme of those on Main Street vs Wall Street.

The alliance between these two Honorable men started back in December when they worked together to force Romney out of the picture.

McCain will be announcing Huckabee as his VP running mate in the next few months. With McCain's military background, he holds dear to the code of Honor and Integrity which Huckabee displayed during the campaigns.

The alliance between these two men started well before the campaign last year. In effect, both men are related. Mike Huckabee's wife Janet's maiden name is also McCain. During the campaign match one saw many compliments of each other going back and forth during the debates. Look for the McCain Huckabee ticket to officially start by start of summer.