Could Arnold Schwarzenegger win California for John McCain?

Half the fun of politics-watching is politics-speculating, and John Mercurio at the National Journal mused yesterday on what John McCain might gain by making an early play for Arnold Schwarzenegger as a member of his cabinet. It's a subscriber-only site, but we'll summarize Mercurio's thinking.

In a word, California.

Republican presidential contenders have won California before, and with the right play -- to the middle, primarily -- they could win it again. How do you make that play? You start by signing up the guv, who has won the state twice. Imagine the "Terminator" as secretary of Homeland Security. Or the  "Kindergarten Cop" in charge of education.

And if McCain does win California, the 55 electoral votes the Democrats usually count on would suddenly be in the "red" column -- a potentially watershed change in the electoral map (though one suspects Hollywood would start a secessionist movement with Rob Reiner holding the flag).

While winning California would be tough, Mercurio says McCain adding Schwarzenegger to his cabinet  isn't that big a leap. Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain, and Mercurio points out that although they have some big policy difference they share some staff -- including Adam Mendelsohn, the governor's former communications director, and Steve Schmidt, who led Schwarzenegger's reelection campaign. Both men know how to play in the state.

But it is a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic, and their past intense dislike of George Bush could be enough to kill any Republican's chances here. And one argument against Schwarzenegger heading to Washington: It's a worse commute than Sacramento.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Jay]

The reason Mccain will win California is that Obama can't get a Hispanic vote to save his life.

[Jenna]

You heard it here first. If Obama is the nominee McCain puts California in play. Latinos might chose McCain over Obama because of his support for immigration reform and his military service, which is well respected in the Latino community. Additionally, there are plenty of other Californians (who voted for Arnold) that will take a serious look at McCain. This really might be the year Republicans get a chance to put CA in the win column (if Obama is the nominee).

[starstation101]

Mercurio's hypothesis is JUVENILE. Shows a complete misunderstanding of California.
Schwarzeneggers approval ratings are now sub-fifty percent and dropping.
Presidential campaign is in its own universe outside the reach and influence of the aging former Mr. Universe.
Dontcha just wish some of these analysts would come and spend some time here so they don't make complete idots of themselves like Mr. Mercurio did.

[Joe Jacques]

If Clinton continues to tear her party apart and actually wins the nomination, California will be in play. I know my entire family of a dozen people will vote for Obama but only 2 of the 12 will vote for Clinton. Really believe McCain will have a chance to beat Clinton here, Obama not as much. Of course Clinton is not near finished attempting to destroy him so she helps McCain either way.

[UCLA Bruin]

I would love to see the Republican Party and McCain blow millions of dollars in a no-win situation campaigning up and down in California. Be my guest.

[Nate]

It's fun to talk about and hope that California will play a pivotal role in November, but it's not going to happen. There is literally no scenario in which McCain will win California and have the state's electoral votes be his margin of victory. If McCain does win, it would only be as part of a total national landslide in which he claimed 400+ electoral votes. As I recall, the latest Obama-McCain California poll (from mid-Feb) had Obama winning 61-34.