Opinion: Red fading to blue, new party poll finds

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Democrats are heading into November’s election with stronger ‘party identification’ among voters than during either of the last two presidential election cycles, a new Pew poll shows.

More than one-third of those surveyed –- 36% -– identified themselves as Democrats, and just 27% identified themselves as Republicans in Pew Research Center surveys taken during the first two months of this year.

But the numbers show more of an erosion from the Republican column than a gain by the Democrats. The Republican Party’s share of self-identified partisans shrank by six points since 2004 and represents the lowest level in 16 years of polling by Pew. The level of support for the Democratic Party remained relatively stable: 36% in the latest surveys compared with 35% in 2004 and in 2000.

At the same time, the percentages calling themselves independents increased from 32% in 2004 to 37% now.

In the so-called ‘blue states,’ where John Kerry won by at least five percentage points in 2004, the Democratic Party’s advantage over Republican voters has nearly doubled from 10 points to 18 points. The balance in ‘red states,’ those where President Bush won by more than five points in 2004 -- has remained more stable.

Throughout the last three election cycles, there have been roughly as many Democrats as Republicans in these 24 states collectively. Now, 33% call themselves Republicans, 33% call themselves Democrats and 34% are independent or belong to fringe parties.

-- Mark Silva

Mark Silva writes for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune’s Washington bureau.