Pollsters share the winner's circle with Hillary Clinton

Let's give credit where credit is due -- in this case, to the pollsters (many of them, at least).

It's been a rough season for those who get paid to gauge public opinion, epitomized by the raft of miscalls in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.

Then there was the embarrassing Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll on the eve of Super Tuesday -- the survey reported Barack Obama up by 13 percentage points in California; he ended up losing the day's major prize to Hillary Clinton by about 10 points.

Since then, the polls accurately foretold the string of victories Obama put together, but usually underestimated the margin by which he would triumph.

Perhaps the pollsters have finally readjusted their interview models to take into account the surges in turnout that have marked most of the Democratic contests. Regardless, on Tuesday, in both Ohio and Texas, the closing polls (for the most part) ...

got it right.

In Ohio, virtually every survey caught a Clinton surge, and quite a few were almost exactly on the mark in presaging her roughly 10-point victory.

In Texas -- a much closer race -- the scorecard for the pollsters understandably was more mixed. But several caught the uptick in Clinton's support as the balloting neared.

Bouncing back from its California debacle, the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, supervised by John Zogby, posted the best final numbers, finding Clinton leading by 3 points. With most of the Texas vote counted, her margin is 3.5 points.

Still, the Zogby folks can't indulge in too much self-congratulation. They ended up with egg on their face in Ohio, with a final poll that called it a tie in that state.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[William]

Funny thing is, yeah. she won Rhode Island. Yeah, she won Ohio, and Texas but didn't win them by large enough votes for it to matter much other than moral booster victory. She only gained a total net of +6 delegates on Obama who has a 147 delegate lead. That +6 delegate lead can be abolished completely if Obama wins the Texas Caucus which has yet to be decided. Obama is currently in the lead with 37% reporting at 52% to Hilary's 48%. The Texas Caucus has a net 60 delegates.

[bjbprice]

The Texas precinct conventions are a heritage of dinosaur politics that prevent the will of the voters using ballots from determining the delegates. In addition, having an institutionalized system for legalization of what is criminal in all other states (voting twice in the same election) puts Texas in a category of uniqueness that it should want to avoid.

[Jason]

Barack Obama 08. After all the winning...she gained 12 delegates. WHY WONT THE MEDIA REPORT THAT??? Obama has the lead in every category... won double the states, 600,000 more popular votes, and 150 more delegates.

[glimps]

Obama 08" i will not vote for her if he is'nt the democratic top nom. ( i'm a sore loser)

[zammy]

Hillary is talking too soon. Shouldn't be Obama toying with the idea of having her on HIS ticket? She may have won in populous states of Texas and Ohio, but looking at the delegate count, she's still behind by the same amount as before the Tuesday primaries began. Her victories in those two states seem very bittersweet. With a majority of states with lesser populations still pending, and the pattern seems to be that the smaller-less populated-majority white- states have gone Obama, Hillary is far from being out of the woods. Her pre-conceived insinuations seems to be far-fetched. Need not remind her of Dewey defeating Truman?

[pablo]

Despite wins in Texas and Ohio, Hillary is still behind by 100 delegates. The same amount as before the Tuesday primaries and caucus. Shouldn't it be Obama toying with Hillary being on HIS ticket?

[Robert Valiquet]

The Democratic party is aflicted with Bi-polar syndrome
and chronic ambivalence.That is why they hold caucuses
on the same day as a primary and support gay marriage
and want to befriend the Castros,Chavez and Ahmadinejads of the world.They should outsource their
rule making to the communist party of China before their
built-in obsolescence is discovered by their naive and
credulous followers.

[Monique from NC]

The public is finally realizing that Hillary is an impressive candidate, all on her own. She's smart, experienced, a fighter, charming, compassionate and hard-working. Reads like a great presidential resume!

[Tom J]

How much of the vote in Ohio and Texas was early voting?