The Barack Obama edge: Is it eroding?

An odd, somewhat hard-to-reconcile juxtaposition has emerged this week between various overviews of the Democratic presidential race and what polls are showing in the two crucial, yet-to-vote states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

On the one hand, several analysts have focused on how, in their view, time and opportunity seem to be waning for Hillary Clinton to overtake Barack Obama in the nomination battle.

Amy Walter, a highly respected political forecaster, wrote in the National Journal that "the events of this week" -- mainly, Obama's speech on race relations -- "seem to leave little doubt that the race has tipped decidedly for" him and Clinton's campaign "has run out of ways to tip it back." (For the rest of the piece, go here.)

Another veteran pundit, Time magazine's Mark Halperin, set up a brief look at the status of Clinton's bid to regain the favorite's position in the contest with this caveat: "Make no mistake: Obama will be the Democratic nominee unless something dramatic happens."

In gauging what he terms the "elements of a potential Clinton comeback," he also adds that "her candidacy is still on life support." (For the rest of the post, go here.)

And the Page One political story in today's ...

New York Times, by Adam Nagourney, is headlined: "Clinton Facing Narrower Path to Nomination" (kudos to the headline writer, tasked with coming up with a substantive one-column topper).

Nagourney paraphrases estimable Democratic consultant Tad Devine, who is on the sidelines in the party's tiff, as opining that Clinton "faced a challenge that although hardly insurmountable was growing tougher almost by the day." (For the rest of the article, go here.)

And yet, we can't help but notice some pesky poll numbers that don't spell good news for Obama.

Based on one new survey in Pennsylvania, here's the lead on a Philadelphia Daily News story: "Could Hillary have a lock on the Keystone State?"

More to the point, could she be headed for a blowout that will make the critiques cited above seem premature at best, and perhaps downright silly?

The Franklin & Marshall poll written about by the Daily News, conducted over several days in mid-March, gave Clinton a 16-point-lead over Obama.

More dauntingly for his camp, a survey by Public Policy Polling, conducted on Saturday and Sunday, put Clinton up by an eye-popping 26 points! The pollsters, in a release, note: "Clinton is aided in large part by a 46-point margin over Obama with female voters, 66-20."

Yes, that's certainly a helpful stat for her. (To read more about this poll, go here.)

True, both of these surveys tapped voter sentiment before Obama used the furor sparked by his personal pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, to deliver his wide-ranging meditation on racial tensions in America. But if a look at reaction to the speech among patrons of a Philadelphia tavern with a largely white clientele is any barometer, Obama hardly improved his standing among this slice of the electorate.

The nut-graph from the must-read story on Politico.com concludes that his address, "although widely praised by the pundit caste and Obama supporters, has only seemed to widen the gulf with the Budweiser class here."

Meanwhile, Obama's fortunes appear to be sagging in North Carolina, the state his camp views as a firewall for it following the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. A survey just out from Public Policy Polling shows the lead Obama had enjoyed over Clinton there has basically vanished: The new numbers put him up by one percentage point, 44% to 43%. (For a listing of all the polling that's been done in North Carolina, which holds its primary May 6, go here.)

We concur with analyst Jay Cost who, in his new post on RealClearPolitics.com, says, "North Carolina could be the make-or-break state for both campaigns."

Cost's piece is headlined: "Is This Race Over?"

The answer seems obvious.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Ivan Douglas]

The media is falling over itself to proclaim Obama the winner. His speech was wonderful. He may be wonderful but if polls and upcoming primaries show that Clinton is blowing him away then the super delegates will have to do their job and go with Clinton. That IS NOT stealing the election. That is why the super delegates were put into place. If the Jeremiah Wright controversy doesn't die down--Barack Obama will NOT be a viable candidate in the general election. And for the best of the democratic party, he should step aside before the super delegates are forced to dump him.

[Josh]

Why should we seek to condemn the path God chose to bring Obama to Christ's feet?

[soundbite]

Obama has already won, but the press understandably wants to keep the story alive; it sells papers.

Not to worry. McCain and Clinton have much more baggage than Obama. He'll win in November, once we can concentrate on pulling together.

[Nick DeForest]

Let's get some perspective. Obama will not get the required number of delegates either. So it will be up to the super delegates who must look at each candidate's ability to beat McCain which is shifting in Hillary's favor right now. As for Obama's great speech. Why a speech? Because he does his very best when reading a prepared speech from his always-needed teleprompters. Why didn't he take questions? Is that true leadership? Can we be expecting that he'll have his telepromptersfor every occasion? With few exceptions the media has not been asking any tough questions. MSNBC (Olberman and Matthews specifically) need to get over their man crushes. They act like smitten school girls when they talk about Obama. I hate to admit it but I've had to watch Fox News to get a little perspective as to what middle America might be thinking.

[Anee]

Everyone knows Obama is done. He should concede now, he is un-electable and his division is hurting the Dems.
Clinton is a fighter and that's what we need to beat McCain.

[Sternberg]

His speech was wonderful. I have, though, begun to ask myself, just what has this guy promised us except to bail out of Iraq, and make everything all better? Has he said how he will do those things? I can't remember him doing any of that.

[cbk]

Obama attends a very Racist organization for 20 years, yet say's he only emphisizes this organizations Christian teachings. If McCain had been a member of the KKK (a organinzation that belives in Christ) could McCain just say I only attended the KKK meetings because of the great talks on Christ? The Wright orgainzation is racist to its core. Obama attended some of these Racist meetings, yet he did not try to show his disapointment with the racist teachings, leave the meetings, he only tries to distance himself l in March 2008 when Fox news shows what he has been listening too.

[John]

Four and a half weeks before PA, don't count Obama out. He merely has to show-up to get the nomination at this point. Clinton is the divisive one. She will kill the democratic party rather than concede defeat. And yet she can not legitimately win.

[Goldie]

I see a new problem for Clinton. As reported in the past, including the LA Times I Believe, Clinton is a member of the very secret "The Fellowship" or the "Family" a Bible Study group whose members include Brownback and Inhofe and whose purpose for the decades that it has been operating has been to promote a Christian elite to rule the world. It has in the past done very bad things, being involved with Suharto in Indonesia and very bad stuff in South America, etc. I would hope Clinton comes out and explains why she is drawn to this group and what she agrees with and disagrees with. I think we should know that, especially all the Democrats who might be voting for her.

[Mark]

I'm surprised pundits and members of the press are ready to toss him overboard after holding his feet to the fire through the words of a man whose 40 years of preaching the gospel, have been shrinkwrapped down to a few "soundbites..." I don't remember hearing the uproar over other minister's and their comments on broad and far reaching topics, but then again, they weren't running for president. If America, or those in the media can't get past what one person says, then let's hold each person running accountable for the "lips" of those around them. Let's hold Hillary accountable for Bill and his definition of what "it" is... Let's hold McCain accountable for him forgetting what country he's actually in and the recent anti-Obama video made by one of his supporters... this is absurd and looks like to fox hunt to find something...

[Trojanguy]

The biased far left media are falling all over themselves to make sure that any negative news about Obama is spun correctly to ensure his nomination.....However, I'm sorry to inform you folks that Obama is already political toast. And Michelle Obama, the shrill one, is his biggest liability, and there is absolutely nothing he can do about that!

[frededias]

Rev. Wright is not "racist" and he is not an "America-Hater". Many white people attend his church. They understand him in context. True patriotism requires the strength to criticize the failings of the country you love-- with strong words if need be.

Wright went overboard a few times, but in the end he did more good for his community than the Far-Right-Wing Hannity Swift-Boat Posse ever will. They are where the real hatred is coming from; the Rev. Wright may be bombastic and he may be wrong about AIDS but he is a man of God who loves all races equally. If you listened to more than that 1 minute loop of his worst moments, this would be obvious.

To their credit, most Hillary supporters know this. Too bad a few are willing to jump on the Right Wing Swift-Boat bandwagon to drag a good man down.

[jp spec]

Just use common sense. The country has made a lot of progress in racial problems. However, there is still much to do. So, now thanks to Obama, we have gone backwards instead of forward. (He is a real unifier.) God Dam America.
For twenty years Obama listened to Hate sermons and says this is no reason to not elect him president?

[Jean]

The bomb has dropped on Obama. The seemingly "anti-establishment" insurgent candidate, Obama, now has two major scandals - campaign advisor and 20 year pastor and pal, the racist Reverend Wright and his outrageous hate-filled anti-American "sermons" and the equally shady campaign fundraiser/slumlord Syrian-born Tony Rezko (facing federal bribery and fraud charges for corruption). Rezko helped Obama buy his Chicago mansion that he couldn't otherwise afford (and who contributed and helped raise hundreds of thousands in suspicious campaign contributions to both Obama campaigns). This after Obama helped write letters on behalf of Rezko so he could get government funds which he didn't use to develop the slum properties in Obama's own Chicago senate district. This candidate is TAINTED and cannot win a general election. Americans simply will not put someone like this into the highest position in this country, not someone who uses such boneheaded judgment to employ and surround himself with radical, nebulous, and even criminal characters like these!

[Lee O. Cherry]

Here we go again. If we did not pick on a candidate's race, gender, religion, looks, dress style....what would the media do? Heaven forbid if we pressed candidates on issues.

The media wants to decide who will win Presidencies. I am glad young people have many ways to get information from media sources other than commercial media and make decisions affecting their lives.

[Barbara]

Unfortunately, this is not surprising. He will be crucified by a 24 hour news cycle that plays the Wright tape over and over and over. It won't surprise me if this whole thing continues. Unfortunately, Obama is going on The View, where he will be grilled again. And then what is he not talking about? The economy, etc. This is such a shame.

[Jackie]

I think making estimations about our Dem. nominee right now is ridiculous. Because voter turnout has hit record numbers, there's no telling what could happen, and I think that is absolutely beautiful. I am SO proud to be a young American witnessing a very historic moment for our country! Anyway, VIVA OBAMA!

[salderdice]

There are a lot of us women who read the Bible, and we all are voting for Clinton. Get over it.

[Lorna Hanson Forbes]

Obama lied to us and people now realize that he is a fade---similar to the hula hoop. Time for Obama to go back to Chicago. His past is sketchy.

We can trust Hillary Clinton.

[Sam]

Pastor problems? Oooh the Clinton campaign did it they are sooo evil.

I am an independent liberal but have a major issue with every issue that is brought-up being someone else's fault. If we question Obama we have a right to do so as he is running for the highest office. I wish the Obama supporters would understand that the same kind of "with us or against us" attitude prevailed before our favorite war being propagated by the current administration. I for one don't want to hold anything back from questioning and don't want to hear why it is someone else's fault, especially when Obama spent 20 years under the spiritual guidance of the Rev.

[Obama's edge will disappear]

Obama's edge will disappear. People have begun to realize that when a person, in this case Obama, spends 20 years of listening to racist rants, that that person becomes so influenced by these rants. Obama, if he wins the primary, will lose in the general because of his 20 year association with Wright as well as his vindictive desire to suppress the votes of Florida and Michigan. If Obama gains the nomination because he succeeds in disinfranchisng these voters, then these same voters will support McCain in the general election. If the Dems won't hear their voices, then the Republicans will be more than happy to do so.

[johanB]

It is pretty depressing to read these type of articles in major newspapers. There is such a desperate tone (meaning: We have absolutely no clue, but we just follow the rest of the pact) to this article that you really start to wonder why for God's sake should anyone (Obama) even bother trying to change this corrupt political system. Being intelligent, using your brains, looking at history, will be punished instantly. The no-one can be smarter than me attitude is overflowing the media and ignorance has taken over. Reading some of the above comments, intelligence by any candidate is not rewarded, but arrogance, meanness, lies and a desperate attempt to hold onto the past is the power of the moment.

(FYI, this isn't a newspaper. It's an online blog. Huge difference. Also free.)

[Harry Grace]

Polls notoriously are a few days behind the news story. Let's wait for polls next week, to see how The Speech went over. According to Ed Rendell, there are enough people in Pennsylvania who will never vote for a black person, that the Wright controversy has now given them the excuse they need to vote for Billary. Let's hope the rest of the nation is more educated and enlightened than that. I have my doubts, but we'll see. There's still a month to go, and that's 2 or 3 lifetimes in politics. Who knows? Maybe someone will get their hands on Billary's tax forms and the names of all the Saudis and Mark Riches who contributed to that library. That'd be nice to see the media doing their job.

[Brad Edwards]

I think Mr. Obama threw away his chance to reach across the divide with his speech. And lost his footing in the process. Black or White anger will only continue to divide our culture and institutions. Why has he stayed with a church that clearly has a bias? That does preach hate. I only ask because I personally don't understand why he would stay and continue to " support " the church and pastor. Why he would not have chosen to find a church where color does not rule. ( ? ) Hate is not a color issue. Hate is a human issue for whites or black or any race.

[elaine]

People...Clinton's tenacity not to concede and Obama's shocking rise to popularity during the Democratic campaign has divided the party so deep, that I, as registered Democrat will vote the McCain-Romney ticket. You know what? I distrust and dislike Hillary ethics so much because of the divisive games she displayed that many Demos are doing the same thing I am. What's worse, African Americans will boycott the November elections anyways should Hillary win. We played into the GOP strategy to the tee. How about that. We did it to ourselves.