Republicans take one on the chin in a special House election

Republian chieftains have had reason to sleep a little better at night lately. With their party's presidential race settled, they are gleefully anticipating the continued trench warfare in the Democratic contest. On the the financial front, as the New York Times reported Friday, the Republican National Committee finds itself far more flush than its Democratic counterpart.

But the results in Saturday's special election to replace ex-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will not occasion sweet dreams within GOP ranks.

Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis, 52% to 48%, in the battle to replace Hastert, who gave up the seat he had held since 1986 -- easily -- several months after the Democratic takeover of the House in the 2006 elections meant his tenure as speaker was over.

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, gamely tried to dismiss the results in a release issued late Saturday.

"The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend," Hanretty said. "In fact, there has been no national trend this entire election season. The presidential election is evidence of that. ... The one message coming out of 2008 so far is that what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.”

Her spin won't wash.

Foster's victory in Illinois' 14th district (which includes the town of Dixon, Ronald Reagan's birthplace) will reverberate, at least in the short term. Pundits will wonder whether it will join the ranks of the stray special election ...

that turns out to be a harbinger.

In the fall of 1991, Democrat Harris Wofford's win over a much-better known Republican, Richard Thornburgh, for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania opened up by the death of Republican John Heinz came to be viewed as an early indicator of the economic discontent that a year late would win Bill Clinton the presidency. (The campaign also made the political world -- particularly Clinton -- stand up and take notice of Wofford's two main strategists, James Carville and Paul Begala.)

In May, 1994, a hint of what was to occur later that year surfaced in Kentucky, when Republican Ron Lewis won a special election for a House seat that a Democrat had held for more than 40 years before he died in office. The Democrat who was picked to try to hold onto the seat was so confident he traveled to Washington for some apartment hunting before the vote. But Lewis' victory presaged the GOP wave that in November sent scores of new Republicans to Capitol Hill and gave the party control of Congress.

Foster's triumph in Illinois may end up a fluke; perhaps this November -- when he seeks a full two-year term and voter participation assuredly will be larger than it was Saturday -- he'll get bounced.

But for now, Democrats will revel in it as a sign of things to come (especially since Republican presidential-nominee-to-be John McCain headlined a recent fundraiser for Foster's GOP foe).

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Dr. Jesse Kally-Williams]

The Democratic Party has the terribly bad luck this year of having a party chairman whose performance so far has revealed that he is an epitome of incompetence and indecision. His name is Howard Dean. His lack of good judgment, decisiveness and political courage will cost the party dearly. He could have stopped all these insults, negative ads and attacks – the washing of dirty linen in the public – long ago. The Democratic National Committee seems not to care a dime about losing or winning the White House. Its performance so far is akin to some corrupt political organization in a third-world-country. It is more interested in serving the whims of the old-guards and keeping the ineffective old flames burning than winning the presidential contest. This is an unfortunate and sad year for such a political genius like Obama to appear in the race. He has influenced the themes, the methodology and the entire spirit of both the Dem and the Rep parties this year. Yet the NDC has failed to seize the moment.

[Lynn]

What you forgot to mention is that Barack Obama did appear in an ad for Foster. Obama may have good coattails for the November election. In some states, however, like Colorado, Democratic candidates for Congress will have to run without the help of a Clinton, because they are so despised.

[pappo]

And why didn't you mention Obama's support? While Hillary Cli-berman didn't do anything for Foster, Barack was cutting ads and giving him some ground support. With Obama at the top of the picket the Democratic Party will be competitive throughout the 50 states.
Please Don, give some credit for this historic victory to Obama!!

[jef]

You mention John McCain, but you neglect to mention that Barack Obama was a strong supporter of Foster, even taking time out of his campaign schedule to cut a television ad for him. As a result of this Obama will probably pick up an additional superdelegate: Foster.

[Brad K]

Huge win for the Democrats, and it suggests Barack Obama has coattails even in Republican-leaning districts. Foster relied heavily on a campaign ad featuring Obama. Oberweis brought McCain in for a fundraiser, elevating this race into a proxy war. Even Republican Congressional Campaign Committee chair Tom Cole attributed Foster's victory to Obama's popularity. Republicans had held this seat for 35 years. National Democrats, including Superdelegates, would do well to consider what this portends for the general election, with polls showing Obama leading or competitive in a number of previously Republican-leaning states in the Midwest, South, and interior West, and forging a broad coalition that includes moderate Republicans and independents while also bringing in record number of new young voters and energizing the Party's African-American base. With this winning formula, Obama has the opportunity to redraw the political map in November.

Clinton's strategy, in contrast, is the same failed strategy relied on by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004: focus on a handful of "big states" and Democratic base states, which leaves the Democratic candidate needing to "draw an inside straight" by winning every one of a small handful of electoral battlegrounds. Current polls show Clinton not competitive in a number of states, including Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas, where Obama currently leads or is in a statistical dead heat with John McCain. Obama won't win them all, of course, but a close competitive presidential race in those states will pay huge electoral dividends for Democrats all the way down the ticket.

[M. P. Goel]

It is most important for the Democratic Party to facilitate the
choice of the right candidate to be the FRONT RUNNER for
Election 2008. WE MUST WIN THE OVAL OFFICE THIS TIME
to ensure reversal of this downward trend that is leading the country towards socio-economic disastor.

[SC]

Is the failure to mention Obama's connection to Foster simply sloppy journalism or symptomatic of editorial bias? Either way, the LA Times is not providing readers with top notch analysis.

[Tom J]

Foster can now be added to the super-delegate count for Obama. More importantly, other super-delegates are seeing the effect of Obama's coattails. If Clinton's at the top of the ticket, she'll energize Republicans to vote, and they won't just be voting against her.