Hillary Clinton lengthens Pennsylvania lead over Barack Obama

A fresh poll from Quinnipiac (doesn't that sound like a character in a Herman Melville novel?) University finds Hillary Clinton adding to her lead over Barack Obama in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary. And you can't help but think some of this stems from the debate over race and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Race does matter, judging by the poll numbers. Overall, Clinton led Obama 53% to 41% among all likely primary voters, a widened gap over the 49% to 43% lead she had Feb. 27. The poll, conducted over six days ending Sunday, has an unusually tight margin of error of 2.7%, which means Obama's slide is within the margin but Clinton's gain exceeds it.

The most interesting stuff, as usual, is in the details. The poll found that the racial gap has widened. White voters preferred Clinton by 61% to 33%, a change from the 56% to 37% lead last month. Similarly, black voters backed Obama 76% to 18% percent, compared with a 69% to 23% earlier finding.

There's a lot of time -- and a lot of campaigning -- to go, but at the moment, the numbers are tracking better for Clinton than for Obama, at least in Quinnipiac's poll. You can browse the rest of the polls here, but pay particular attention to the trend lines on the Real Clear Politics aggregate graph. It shows Obama flat in Pennsylvania, while Clinton climbed. And she was ahead there to begin with.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Jonathan]

You are aware that Obama is up by 170 pledged delegates, right? So the 10 to 15 delegates that Clinton will probably pick up in Pennsylvania matter because...?

[bob]

First of all, I am not a Democrat. But I think it would be a shame if Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary because of the Rev. Wright issue. I'll be the first to admit I found his comments outrageous; however, looking back over the Clinton legacy and all the "skeletons in the closet" they have, I find it hard to believe the Democrats would allow Hillary to represent them in the November election. When you really look back at it, Bill Clinton is the one who initially entered race into the campaign. And this from a man who claims to be a friend of black America. Just goes to show you, when you want down and dirty politics, get the Clintons involved.

[superjo]

Clinton needs to win the popular vote. If she does, the superdelegates are obligated to support the will of Democratic voters.

[Belle]

It's important because if Hillary can eke out a win in terms of popular vote, she has a case to make with the super delegates. That's why.

[j101]

In Obama's road to the white house map of the country he already notes he probably won't win PA. His map has been right on so far. So he won't win PA but he still wins the white house!

[Fredric Fortney]

I believe Mrs. Clinton will continue to gain in National polls and it shall become clear that she is the strongest candidate for president as we approach the Denver showdown.

Experience shall prevail over change as our economic woes worsen. Mrs. Clinton has made a strong case for experience and Mr. Obama has not made a strong case for change; most likely because he has failed to define what he plans to do that is different from the platform driven home by Mrs. Clinton.

[God Bless America.]

It doesnt matter now that Barack has more delegates. The delegates he won was when he was not exposed as belonging to a racist church. If you have elections in those same states where Barack was leading, I would bet you he wouldnt make it. Barack has already been exposed, his heart where is at is not for the American people. Why would Americans vote for him now?
If the DNC respects his number of delegates now, watch out, the republicans may have more ammo on him and this is why Barack cannot disown the pastor because he knows there is more tapes out there.

[Andrew Ian Murphy]

Personally, what I think we are witnessing in this poll is two fold...first we see the deteroration of the campaign into racial politics, somthing I never thought we would see, and the second is that if you dig up negative images related to the other canidate, the public result will be a drop in the polls. Clintos campaign dug up dirt on Obama's preacher, thus we see adrop in the polls.

Hopefully Mr. Obama will take note of this and start digging...though I do recomend he not dig too deep, else he will stumble into actual rotting corpses of men like, Vincint Foster, Charles Mcdugal, and Ron Brown who died in a small plane crash and got shot in the head at the same time.

[Marks]

Race matters when incessant blather pounding on the obvious leads to nothing new, that's media.

What's the point of campaigning if people are set in their ways racially? If Obama is only defined as a black. Hillary is only a woman and she has Bill.

I don't go into polling booth to deny ethnic groups. I don't place race or gender ahead of other necessary data to consider.

One person on TV news said, can't vote for black candidate. A woman claimed, the President has to be male.

Democrats fight about it but there will be a loser. The question is whether Democrats move over to McCain and that's not easy when the Senator is now claiming to be Conservative Republican.

Aren't Democrats trying to get from under Republican rules?

All remaining states still to vote have to know, Hillary is almost at the point she can't win. Ohio didn't put her in the lead. Pennsylvania won't either. Florida isn't voting again. Michigan isn't likely.

Politics is a loser process if people can't get over the racism and bias in themselves.

.

[Truesdell]

Obama's fine speech will be reflected in the next Pennsylvania poll. He will likely lose the PA primary but it will be much closer than those reported poll numbers.

In any event his delegate lead is impregnable. He just picked up some more delegates from Iowa and will add enough delegates from Texas to upend the conventional wisdom that Hillary won there. Washington, Oregon, North Carolina and Guam, all favorable grounds for him, loom ahead.

The Superdelegates are politically savvy enough to follow the will of the voters. And they have indeed been moving in his direction.

Obama vs. McCain it is.

[Melvyn M. Rosales]

The hatred and arrogance in Rev. Wright's comment could be just a tip of the iceberg. This comment is not just a spur of the moment. Its seriousness must have been rooted to his personal belief, which developed in time. As Senator Obama considers this man intelligent and an adopted uncle, who knows if Rev. Wright's wisdom is shared by the senator in one or more of their private conversations. As it became public, the senator's natural instinct is to repudiate it. What a way to go.

[Duke of Luxembourg]

This whole race thing is distracting us from the big issues. It's really quite pathetic, and I think the candidates need to get a hold of themselves before things get way too out of hand. Personally, the fact that Obama was black never influenced how I voted. Even after all this controversy with his former pastor, I'd still vote for him.

[John]

I also find it herendous that the Clinton campaign has associated a sort of correlation between Reverend Wright's comments and Sen. Barack Obama. Though Wright's comments were offensive, you should listen to the speech Barack gave today and how it truly faces the discrimination between many of us. Mr. Obama is a great man and we would be blessed to have him as president of the United States.
Obama '08

[ndo]

I'm not sure how "recent" this Q poll is, actually. In fact, the last time a "recent" Q-piac poll was released, it was actually performed at least a week prior to its being published. However, it seems a tad too convenient and suspicious for any polling center to release something like this on a day that just happens to coincide with Obama's biggest speech this campaign. Now, while most of us realize the poll would have to have been conducted prior to this speech, the layperson would assume these numbers could be a result of his speech, which just isn't true. Beyond this Wright flap and SNL noise -- both candidates' camps are right: the media is stepping far and egregiously past the line that corrals the Fourth Estate. It's time they be held accountable for "guiding" the electorate's opinions.

[danny]

The question is will white people vote for Obama after the pastor controversy? Is he white enough even though he is half white? How do we know whites wont be racist and choose 100 years more in iraq than a half white president?

[soothsayer]

Did anyone catch snippets of the sermon given by Rev. Wright's replacement just the other day? Didn't sound like he was very concerned about Wright's comments. In fact, sounded as though he defended him and agreed with the basic tenor of his former boss' speech. So....ask yourself this simple question: Do you want the "home church" of next President of the United States reflect such views, make such statements, spew such divisiveness? That may play well in Damascus, Tehran, or Amman, but it will not on US Main, Wall or Back streets. Obama is finished. The way he will be ousted from the top Democratic position has yet to play out. What a dilemma for the Democrats, the party may implode unless he withdraws!

[Jeff]

If Obama was given the same scrutiney as Hillary from the press at the beginning of this race he would NEVER, NEVER have this lead. Now that the press is finally sort of equal to both of them, Obama isn't the "superman" they made him out to be. But is he does win I will vote for him and her if she wins.
We can't have McCain (Bush lll ) in the White House. But if McCain wins everyone that voted for him deserves whatever you get. No crying over spilled milk.

[mariann]

WHY YOU SHOULD NOT VOTE FOR HILLARY ROTTEN CLINTON:

Many millions of jobs that have been harbored safely within the borders of the U.S. as an active part of the U.S. economy have been moved to distant locations outside the U.S. where labor costs are significantly reduced. The outsourcing of U.S. jobs, often referred to as “offshoring”, while not new, has become quite prolific since the advent of NAFTA by the Clinton Admini- stration. The immediate reaction was that hundreds of manufacturing plants were closed and relocated outside the States. Champions of NAFTA and the World Trade Organization rationalized that low-skilled and low-paying manufacturing jobs would be replaced with higher paying jobs in high-tech and service sectors. Corporate momentum is such that outsourcing has gained wholesale acceptance by companies across-the-board seeking lower costs and higher profits. Job outsourcing has moved up the corporate ladder of hierarchy from telemarketing jobs to highly-skilled and managerial positions. Multinational Corporate America has been relocating the very jobs that NAFTA and the WTO announced would replace low-paying manufacturing jobs. The newest wave of job outsourcing is being exercised in accounting and financial services, computer and IT services along with telecommunications.

Mexico was a huge testing field for NAFTA and corporate internal structuring. For a time, Multinational Corporate America sustained many manufacturing plants in Mexico within reach of the U.S. border. When the labor costs and the professional level of the Mexican worker began to increase, most of the plants were quickly abandoned for other less expensive provisions overseas. The corporate taste for labor manipulation was fully birthed.

Multiple times, Congressional measures have been considered to restrain the federal government from granting contracts to companies to send work overseas. The Bush Administration has consistently opposed the legislation. The administration has continually supported tax incentives to outsource jobs overseas. Unprecedented levels of sensitive personal information are being shipped overseas where privacy protections are not in place. The federal government has made efforts to undermine state laws by convincing state governors to accept new rules for trade agreements, working to promote the use of funding that employs outsourced workers overseas.

While it is safe to say that these multinationals have heavily funded the Bush campaigns, the same support was obviously in place when the trade agreements were pressed into service by the Clinton Administration. The role of money in politics often appears to be very subtle. General Electric, Deloitte Touche, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, SBC and Verizon are among the top exporters of U.S. jobs since 2000. There is speculation and analysis, but almost no solid information of the number of U.S. jobs that have been outsourced. Ernst & Young sends tax preparation work to India. Aetna has medical records reviewed in India. Deloitte sends government work to India and commonly brings Indian workers from overseas to perform government work. The large organizations that support a multinational workforce have resisted disclosure of any information that might work against their corporate benefit. The government has worked as a partner to stem public scrutiny of job outsourcing with no federal reporting requirements for outsourced jobs. Multinational corporate America is fearful over a public backlash of opinion that would prevent them from exercising complete autonomy over their corporate workforces.

Increasing numbers in the United States labor force compete with developing third-world countries. The U.S. government continues to subcontract work to private contractors that often outsource with an overseas affiliate or subcontractor. Corporations like Deloitte Touche, have increasingly been sending IT and managerial jobs overseas. It is not uncommon for Deloitte, a major governmental finance and accounting firm, to bring foreign workers into the country to educate them while maintaining control of all aspects of worker’s lives, a form of indentured servitude. Work visas are commonly employed to bring foreign workers to work in the States for reduced wages. The action is considered as harmless and justifiable because of the number of multinational offices held by many players of Corporate America.

The effect of job globalization is the suppression of wages in the United States. 57% of reemployed displaced workers earned less in new jobs than in the jobs that were lost from outsourcing. 34% of those displaced workers saw earnings reductions of more than 20%. Brookings Institute recommends that outsourced reemployed workers recover 47 cents of every dollar that they used to earn.

Perhaps the ultimate expression of capitalism results in the export of jobs to lowest-cost countries to enable what used to be “American companies”, now multinational corporations that have the sole goal of maximizing their corporate profits. The ultimate political expression has evolved to a sector of the world that is, in effect, ruled by multinational corporations

[NorthCarolinian]

Whatever her supporters think or want to believe, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton know she has lost the race for the Democratic nomination. By offering Obama her VP spot, she is trying hard to become his VP. Clever and crafty move!

[NorthCarolinian]

Whatever her supporters think or want to believe, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton know she has lost the race for the Democratic nomination. By offering Obama her VP spot, she is trying hard to become his VP. Clever and crafty move!

[Ed]

What else do we not know of Barack Obama?

-- Side deals of Nafta with Canadian Embassy

-- Side deals with withdrawal of troops on Irag War

-- Side deals on his voting record about the war funding

-- Side deals about his experience of foreign policy

-- Side deals on voting record as Illinois state senator

Finally, side deal with Rezco on his mansion.

Can Obama overcome these handicaps once he faces the radical right?

My conclusion: Obama is not ready for Presidency, he should stay in the Senate as a fiscalizer. He is too raw to be Democratic standard bearer and too many skeletons to hide come General Elections in Nove.

[Gurvinek]

The "Wright" setback matters and very much so. And Mr. Obama rushes to salvage with paternal speeches/lectures. Sitting in the radical church, listening to hateful preaches but waking up just today with righteous words. Well, Paris worth the Mass.

[daniel]

Sorry, but this gain in PA, is showing that the American people are actually seeing the real Obama and are actually are seeing that Hillary Rodham Clinton is the correct person to lead the Dems into the elections and to win the White House. She is the only one that has mentioned anything in the last week about the economy etc....its time to stop voting on good speeches and vote for someone that is actually going to help the our country.

[John Bard]

I'm an ex-pat Brit and don't have a vote. But I do have an opinion. For what it's worth, if Obama is not elected as the Democratic candidate - and consequently the next President - then that will send a message ringing around the world: Business as Usual. And that would be bad for the world, disastrous for America.

[ivan]

Will one of the dim-witted Republicans please tell me what the skeletons are in Hillary Clinton's closet? You don't realize that Reagan had Iran-Contra. Bush/Cheney have had so many ethical lapses that there's not enough space here to list them all but lying about evidence to start a war is on the list. The difference-- elected Democrats are wimps who don't pursue impeachment or spend 60 million dollars trying to dig up more dirt on a Republican President. After all was investigated, Bill Clinton lied under oath about sex with an intern. What are the PROVEN Clinton skeletons that are any worse than Reagan's, Bush's or Thomas Jefferson's? Get real.