Will the polls, and the vibe, finally reflect reality?

We've been here before. The pending question is: Will we be fooled again?

The story line is in place for today's "Potomac primaries" in Maryland, Virginia and D.C., a narrative determined by other recent contests, the body language from each of the Democratic presidential campaigns and -- most influential -- the polls. Based on all of this, it should be another shining Barack Obama moment.

But in his mind, and those of his aides, there must linger a memory of New Hampshire.

Boosted by his win in the season's inaugural contest, the Iowa caucuses, the question on the day of the Granite State primary was by how much -- not if -- he would win that vote. Every final poll showed him ahead. Hillary Clinton did not even have a victory speech ready. But that night, of course, she got to make one.

The lay of the electoral land wasn't quite as clearcut ...

when last week's Super Tuesday dawned. Still, there was hope in the Obama camp -- buoyed by the high-profile Kennedy clan endorsements he had received -- that he could steal a win from Clinton in California, the day's big prize. At least one poll predicted as such.

The night ended OK for Obama; he fought Clinton pretty much to a draw in contests across the nation. But there was no California win for him; indeed, his showing in the state left something to be desired for him and his partisans.

So now comes another chance for Obama to put some real daylight between himself and Clinton.

The polls are arrayed with rare unanimity, showing him with substantial leads in Maryland and in Virginia (a big Obama victory in D.C. is a foregone conclusion). Team Clinton, meanwhile, is feeling the heat, trying to focus the attention of supporters on battles that are three weeks away.

In a campaign season that has defied one forecast after another, perhaps tonight the results finally will match the expectations. If not, there are any number of pollsters, in particular, who should start considering another line of work.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Roger]

My Question: Is McCain Eligible to the office of President?
Why the question? Well he was born in Panama.. Therefore under the constitution he does not qualify to the office of The President.

Article II Section I of the US Constitution reads:

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States."

The Key word is “NATURAL BORN CITIZEN”.

He is a Citizen of the United States because both parents are but because he was Not born in a USA Territory then accordingly to the Constitution he is not eligible to the office of President.
Panama in 1936 (The year he was born) was LEASED and the USA holds no Territory OWNERSHIP.
The founding fathers during the process of writing the Constitution were engaged in a debate as to what kind of Americans should be eligible to the office of President and Vice-President.

In 1790 an Act of Congress was passed where it said “"the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond Sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born Citizens".
But The Act of 1790 was superseded by the Naturalization Act of 1795 therefore the Act of 1790 it is not valid.
So, to be a "natural born citizen," a person must be born in the United States; otherwise, they are citizens by law and are naturalized.
As of Today no court or Congress has yet address again address the key words
“Natural born Citizen”

So do you see the embarrassment that is coming to the Republican party if McCain becomes the party nominee?

Respectfully yours,

Roger

[Jesse]

Polls are great, and their errors are often explainable, but it's not how wrong they are that frustrates people

The problem is that they feel like an imposition, like they're telling us how to vote. I honestly don't think people want to vote based on momentum or poll data, they want to vote on issues.

This article lists and describes each place where Senator Clinton and Senator Obama's votes differ. This are the bricks behind their facade.
http://politicalmaelstrom.blogspot.com/2008/01/actual-differences-between-barack-and.html

[highwayscribery]

That's been the beauty of the thing, its unpredictability. But really, those media-driven expectations have tended to put a perceptive damper on Obama's achievements. "Fighting Clinton to a draw," was a fortuitious result and might have been recognized as such were it not for Zogby's prognostications. In any case the candidates have been heading in opposite directions and it may become more pronounced tonight with Obama leaving the superdelegate problem behind. Anybody had to think twice at the idea "NASCAR Men" being a strength for Hillary in Virgina?

[Sascha]

In Italy we have a saying: 'non parlare di corda in casa dell'impiccato', something like 'don't talk about ropes in the house of an hanged man'.
That's to talk about a recent declaration by the latest Nobel laureate, the writer Doris Lessing: she said that, if elected, Barak Obama, would be killed in a very short time.
I wonder why you didn't comment about a fear which I think very much present in the mind of Mr.Obama and his staff...

[serena1313]

The polls for the past week or two have been unanimous showing Obama with 10-20 point commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Virginia and Maryland.

Needless to say it has been an exciting time for all of us instead of the "presumed", inevitable winner. It has given more voters a say in who gets nominated.

Insofar as Jesse's comment I disagree because anyone who votes according to the polls instead of who they want in office is giving away their vote.

Insofar as Obama's loss in California, considering that 784,000 undeclared -- decline to state -- voters, less than 10%, only 72,228, voted seems low. The ballot problems may account for that?

At any rate unless voting machines act up Obama is looking good in all 3 states today.

Go Obama.

[Gene Venture]

In a diverse community, we do not trust people with a glib tongue. The Obama campaign aired his support for issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, when the primary concern of Latinos were jobs, education, and health care. Hillary Clinton has been either ignored or ostracised by the various news medias, that have even attacked former President Bill Clinton. But many voters have not forgotten the former President's record of peaceful prosperity, However, there are those who are willing to gamble with Obama's inexperience as they have gambled with Bush's inexperience. Bush's inexperience has forfeited our place among civilized nations, and for the first time in the history of our beautiful declared war on a nation who did not attack us. Lastly, let us not forget the mothers, fathers, widows, and fatherless children who receive their loved one in flag drapped coffins because of Bush's inexperience.

[Marks]

Sascha

It can be said Nobel winners don't know what their talking about sometimes.

People can die in a variety of ways but to suggest political assassination is asinine.

Some things don't translate between countries and that thought shouldn't be promoted. All the politicians here have more than enough security. Plus, majority of America has decent thoughts considering our politicians lives, they aren't being shot.

Find something else in Italy to worry about.

[Sidmore]

He will qualify as a natural born citizen. I am pretty certain that it is not defined as you said. And the naturalization act would not supercede that designation for citizens unless it specifically addresses it. That is usually the way it works. So no embarrassment other than his 100 year Iraq stance!

[Sascha]

Thanks, I've quite a lot to worry about in Itay but, frankly, what happens here is not as important as what happen in the United States.
Am I mistaken in saying that 4 Presidents have been killed in office while a few more suffered assassination attempt more or less serious?
Now, in the last few years America's standing in the world has slipped and the coming recession won't help much. A black President would be a tremendous boos to the Us image in the world; at the same time, an assassination of a black President or a black nominee would be a terrible disaster: 'look at these americans, racists to the bone!' Here in Italy there's tremendous support for Mr. Obama from the media and public opinion: he's already doing a lot of good to America's reputation. That's one of the reason I'm worried.
Clearly, it is a difficult theme but Doris Lessing knows very well what she's talking about: she's from
South Africa, after all.
In a few occasion Fox News has mistaken Obama's name in 'Osama' and on the Internet outrageous lies about the Senator abound - am I wrong?

[Terry W. Brookman]

Oh be serious the Clinton’s have alienated themselves. They are at the heart of our problems, that idiot Bush would not have been elected if Bill had taken care of business. Can anyone remember the last sixteen years, the youth of today remember the last four at the most. Barack Obama may be the start of something new, a since of political responsibility. We the people need to watch who we elect and respond with haste when they do not respond too our will. Busch should mhave been impeached the day after he diverted our assets from Afganistan to Iraq.