Hillary Clinton campaign talks about possible California defeat

This could all be just so much manipulation, an attempt by Hillary Clinton's brain trust to reduce expectations for today's results to give her a little more oomph should she sweep the big states, including California.

But it could be they're genuinely nervous. Clinton is calling for more one-on-one televised debates with Barack Obama, a rare move for a front-runner and one that could signal the campaign thinks she's in trouble. Clinton has done well in earlier debates, while Obama has been inconsistent. Clinton has accepted four debates: one on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos" this Sunday; one the next day on Fox in Washington, D.C.; and one more each in Texas and Ohio.

In a conference call a little while ago with reporters -- including our colleague Peter Nicholas -- Clinton strategists said Obama could win more delegates nationwide today than Clinton, a remarkable reversal of fortunes for a campaign that a few weeks ago was trying to paint Clinton as the inevitable nominee.

In fact, two months ago Clinton told supporters at a Sacramento fundraiser that ...

... it "is all going to be over by Feb. 5." At least she didn't guarantee it.

"We're confident we're going to win a diverse mix of states today, but the results are going to be close and inconclusive due to the proportional allocation of delegates under the Democratic Party rules," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications advisor. "We do expect to maintain the overall lead in delegates tomorrow when we wake up that we do today.''

Clinton's strategists said they could see the fight going through March and possibly onto the convention floor in Denver in August -- great sport for political junkies but a test of nerves for the candidates. And even if Obama gets more delegates today, Clinton's advisors said her lead among "super delegates'' -- party leaders and elected officials who are free to vote as they choose -- would still give her the overall lead. But that would just add to the perception that she's the mainstream choice, and fuel Obama's contention that he's the candidate of change.

So how did Clinton lose her dominant position in California, a state she once led by 16 poll points?

Wolfson: "Sen Obama has put considerable resources into the state. He's had large rallies, he's had great surrogates coming out to urge his supporters to vote.... Much to their credit the state is close. I don't think we're going to know who has won California until very late into the night. That's just the way politics is. The election wasn't 30 days ago. It's today. And as of today it's very close.''

Check back after as the evening proceeds to see how much of that was spin and how much was prediction.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Graham]

I think Hillary, like Bush, is too polarizing to the American electorate and would lose in a national contest against a "moderate" like John McCain. White evangelical voters aren't excited by the prospect of voting for McCain or Romney, but would turn out to ensure that Hillary doesn't win a single state below the Mason-Dixon Line. Obama might lose to McCain as well, but stands a better chance of making inroads into the South and lower Midwest. You win with coalitions. As a moderate, McCain would be attractive to independents, swing voters and other moderates, which would put states that Kerry carried in 2004 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) into play for the Republicans. The Democrats need someone who can put Southern states into play on the Democratic side and Obama would be able to do that better than Hil. Why? Because African-Americans and young white voters in Georgia, South Carolina and other states will stand taller for him than they would Clinton.

[Know better...]

Skipper, you do your race poorly. Have a little faith. Have you, and all the other African Americans moaning the same sob story ever ONCE thought about saying YES! Maybe it's your own lack of confidence in yourselves that keeps everyone else from thinking an African American is electable too. Act indentured, be seen as indentured. Act proud, independant, and strong, be seen that way. I know how I act in my daily life, as a strong, proud, African American. Maybe you should give it a try.

And John? I'd be far more likely to hire someone who had made mistakes in the past (yes, even cocaine) than I ever would someone who can't spell "SCHOOL!" The military hires former drug users, the police forces hire former drug users, etc. The world knows mistakes are made in life. Why don't you? Maybe your mistake was not listening in "scholl".

[RCharles]

Obama seems to be gaining momentum and could easily win the nomination today. If he can maintain and build that momentum into the general election, he will be president.

Hillary is a tougher call; she is divisive and, of late, has appeared tired from the daily grind. I wonder if she can keep up through the run up to a general election and if her divisiveness will cause her to lose the general election.

A very exciting year.

[Jennifer]

I was chanting and sign waving this morning for Hillary in LA in front of the Federal Building and the support was OVERWHELMINGLY favorable.Don't believe the Obamamites when they give negative reviews! Hillary will rock the Nation!!!

Hillary '08!!!

[robert]

OBAMA DEFEAT MC CAIN__IN THIS COUNTRY???

There is no way, whatsoever, that the people in this country on the right (the majority) would EVER elect or allow a black man to be president of the united states.

The south, the bible belt, new englanders - are all very racist people. BUT RACE ASIDE... What does Obama have to offer this country in terms of change. He's NOT a man with a clear vision, one that's unique in any way.
His ideas are not revolutionary -- rather, they are simply borrowed and regurgitated. Unfortunately, if Mr Obama were WHITE - he would not even be known in this election. The REALITY is -- for the first time in history, we have a very goodlooking, well-spoken, young african american man who is running and his look and charm are the only legs his campaign is running on.

We live in an extremely complicated world -- and many people on the right, believe that the war was and is RIGHT. So, Obama's "Right from Day One" mantra will be a big WRONG ANSWER with swing republicans and independents in this country.

We've been watching too many reality TV shows -- American Idol, Top Model, etc... and conditioned to
voting/rooting for the CUTE ONE. WAKE UP!!!
Our lives depend upon it. Vote for the person with the
most experience and proven track record for getting things DONE.

[Miss D]

HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN!

With Clinton in the White House the US will finally have a strong, sensible, smart and capable leader. Clinton can give this country direction and definition. Only she can give us a democratic victory.

[Learylin]

vote for hillary you won't be sorry.

[Learylin]

Who should we vote for,Obama says we should not vote for Hillery Clinton,She has A health care which will make poor people pay,Yes and so did Senator Ted Kennedy in Mass.And he's working for Obama,Also lets ask Senator Kennedy did he vote for the war,And lets not forget Senator Kennedy ran for President and was not Elected President,Because of the women he killed going over the bridge,And left the scene,And reported the accident until the next day.I feel we need to vote for Hillary Clinton,Look at her record,She will help the poor,And get the jobs that we need to make this world better for everyone,Don't just vote for Obama from his speaking,Look at the experience,And then you'll vote for Hillary Clinton.

[Hot for Obama]

If Hillary is elected, it will only mean Ken Starr will be coming out of retirement. Do we really want to go back to the '90s? Time to move forward, and Barack is the man to lead.

Si Se Puede

[Jack]

Obama poured everything he could into California, but he neglected the rest of the country. Clinton caught every state with her Town Hall that the press overlooked.

In all, Clinton will have a big night tonight, but all you'll read tomorrow is how Obama did in California.

There's 47 other states than Iowa, South Carolina, and California. You'd wouldn't think that with how the press has acted this primary. You'd think only 3 states count.

[WOW]

It's so nice to see that the media decides who our candidates are going to be. Oh, I forgot, the Constitution starts with " We the Corporate Media of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice..."

Whatever folks. I love those die-bold machines. That's fair too.

[bwhit]

Skipper, I'm a white guy and live in the DEEP south. I'm going to vote for Obama. More people want to get past the black-white thing than you might think.

[Annd]

The main thing that I see separating Barack from Hillary besides a few policy differences is his hypocrisy in saying he "never" has been beholden to special interest groups.
My foot, what is anyone who believes that smoking!! What about Exelon, and his own PAC, and the money he has accepted from numerous special interests. It's all there for anyone to see in the contribution records. What about his beginning strong with the nuclear leak bill he sponsored, and gradually caving in to the status quo until the bill allows reporting on a volunteer basis instead of requiring mandated reporting of small leaks.
It's a fact that politicians do accept special interest money, but the worst is when Obama pretends to take the high road, makes it a campaign issue, and points the finger at Hillary, all the while knowing his own hands are dirty. If he runs for office on such a blatant lie, what would he do once he is in power and has the office of President in his possessionfor a solid 4 years. And he is the candidate of CHANGE? We don't need another liar and hypocrite in the White House! Please don't fall for his pretended innocence and honesty.

[Eric, CA]

Its dangerous to make firm predictions. It not impossible that Hillary beat McCain, Just very unlikely. Whereas an Obama led ticket will almost certainly clinch the Whitehouse.

I'm a republican who wants to see Obama as our next president.

[Tracesf]

Has Obama been tested? Will he survive a general election? Will young people still be interested in the election in 10 months?

[zamcal]

Typical politicians, what are they "REALLY" thinking. They strategize so often, I think they themselves are blilnded and are beginning to be baffled and confused. More power to them. I think this is why politicians, lawyers and used car salespersons are not highly-regarded professions.

Thank you very much !

[ProblemWithCaring]

This is typical behavior from the Clintons, who have a long history of living and dying by polls.

Bill Clinton actually institutionalized the type of polling by current Campaigns that is the norm now - he was infamously known not to take a piss before focus grouping it to death.

Hillary is a poli-Bot who will do (vote) or say anything to play to the polls. Its as no surprise that her campaign would be giving weight to these latest polls and strategizing ways to "get in front" of the polling data.

[david]

Obama is a very rude, dirty , corrupt politician. In this prudential race, he has been play race card, victim card and the like. Without Tony Razko, he even couldn’t be elected as a Illinois congressman. He wrote letters for Razko for getting government contract, as return, He has received large amount dirty money for his political career and his current presidential campaign, and moreover He jointly bought a mansion with Razko which Obama got $300,000 discount, whereas Razko not, strange? Razko’s trial start March 3, let us seeing more Obama corrupt details revealing.

He is nothing but empty talk. He is just another inexperienced Bush we have 8 years. We don’t want Bush, so we don’t want Obama!

[Tim]

I find it funny all the nonsense spouted about MRS. Clinton's "Experience". First off where did Bill come from when he became president? I do not believe it was New York state.

MRS. Clinton moved to New York after they determined it was the most likely place she could actually win a spot in the senate. To me that speaks of a very seedy character. Clinton demeanor comes across as fake and calculated. Obama at least gives the feeling of a real individual who actually can comprehend the troubles of daily life and not Clinton's "privileged" lifestyle.

It you want the same old garbage that has been driving this country into the crapper, vote for the same old type of candidates we have been getting for years. Otherwise vote for something new, refreshing and inspiring.

[One Nation]

Obama! 08!

It's not just change. It's new life, new momentum, and a new perspective.

Yes WE Can!

[Raj]

what change? and what price change?- The most deceptive and nebulous term of this primary, The only change obama has brought is -galvinize african american votes to rubber stamp him and celebrities (who are better when confined to tv only) prop him up with racial bias while some others of the celebrity kind joined the fray lest they should be deemed to be racial or just plain clueless, just as the media seems to be driving up the euphoria for no reason, obama reminds me of paris hilton at this point- all this only alienates other minorities and more.is this the change you wanted? get real, presidency is serious business, not a drama..obama is no colin powell, if we need the excitement we will go, pay and watch cinema! so, shake off the headiness and vote Hillary!

[JOE SMOE]

HILLERY IS GOOD FOR COUNTRY..A WHOLESOME GIRL THATS DYING TO BE THE PRESIDENT. SHE HAS EDUCATION AND KNOWS THINGS. SHE IS A LEADER AND KNOWS HOW TO LEAD . WITH HER A VICE PRESIDENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY.

[youRchange]

Lets get off the whole experience bit people... look at the stats.....

1. Obama has held an elected office longer than Hillary.
2. Obama has helped pass more bills than Hillary and Edwards together.
3. Obama specialized in Constitutional Law throughout his education.

..... lets give Obama the chance to restore the integrity of our U.S. Constitution.

[Web Smith]

Neither Obama or Clinton are going to stop the war. Obama belongs to the Yale Skull and Bones club that Bush belongs to and Hillary is supported by the owners of the Fed.

What you will get from either one of them and McCain is government growth, tax and spend, and war.

“…Hillary will be good for America… we’ll be very pleased that she’s president.” — Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Portfolio magazine, October 5, 2007 (The Rothschilds are major share holders in the Fed)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heegk07026I

[GK]

I'm a Democrat I'll vote Republican before I vote for Hillary if she is nominated. She is a mean spirited insider with way too much baggage of her own to be successful. Polarizing figures never benefit our country. She's just as bad as Bush in the effect she'd have on our country if she took hold of our Whitehouse with all her long time cronies.

Cant say I ever felt that way about John Edwards or Barack Obama.