Hillary Clinton campaign talks about possible California defeat

This could all be just so much manipulation, an attempt by Hillary Clinton's brain trust to reduce expectations for today's results to give her a little more oomph should she sweep the big states, including California.

But it could be they're genuinely nervous. Clinton is calling for more one-on-one televised debates with Barack Obama, a rare move for a front-runner and one that could signal the campaign thinks she's in trouble. Clinton has done well in earlier debates, while Obama has been inconsistent. Clinton has accepted four debates: one on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos" this Sunday; one the next day on Fox in Washington, D.C.; and one more each in Texas and Ohio.

In a conference call a little while ago with reporters -- including our colleague Peter Nicholas -- Clinton strategists said Obama could win more delegates nationwide today than Clinton, a remarkable reversal of fortunes for a campaign that a few weeks ago was trying to paint Clinton as the inevitable nominee.

In fact, two months ago Clinton told supporters at a Sacramento fundraiser that ...

... it "is all going to be over by Feb. 5." At least she didn't guarantee it.

"We're confident we're going to win a diverse mix of states today, but the results are going to be close and inconclusive due to the proportional allocation of delegates under the Democratic Party rules," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications advisor. "We do expect to maintain the overall lead in delegates tomorrow when we wake up that we do today.''

Clinton's strategists said they could see the fight going through March and possibly onto the convention floor in Denver in August -- great sport for political junkies but a test of nerves for the candidates. And even if Obama gets more delegates today, Clinton's advisors said her lead among "super delegates'' -- party leaders and elected officials who are free to vote as they choose -- would still give her the overall lead. But that would just add to the perception that she's the mainstream choice, and fuel Obama's contention that he's the candidate of change.

So how did Clinton lose her dominant position in California, a state she once led by 16 poll points?

Wolfson: "Sen Obama has put considerable resources into the state. He's had large rallies, he's had great surrogates coming out to urge his supporters to vote.... Much to their credit the state is close. I don't think we're going to know who has won California until very late into the night. That's just the way politics is. The election wasn't 30 days ago. It's today. And as of today it's very close.''

Check back after as the evening proceeds to see how much of that was spin and how much was prediction.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Stacy Casillas]

HILLARY AS THE NOMINEE = A MCCAIN WHITE HOUSE.

Fair or not, she carries to much Bill Baggage to get the necessary Independent and Swing voters in November -- and to win the general election, you need those votes.
Obama, on the other hand, has wide, cross-over appeal.
Only OBAMA CAN BEAT MCCAIN.

If you don't want another four years of a Republican in the White House, be smart. Think November. VOTE OBAMA.

(Check out today's Washington Post Op Eds and David Brooks' piece in the NYT. Also, Michael Mogulescu (sp) on the Huff Post spells it out perfectly.)

Only Obama can get enough of the general population to win the White House.

[bB60]

Right wing talking points seem to work pretty well for the New Kid on the Block-the American Idol. Let's just wait and see if David Axelrod's confection, can pull it out and continue to fool the people- So far so good-most voters seem to think that experience doesn't matter-even after 7 years of Bush. I live in a state, Massachusetts that has another one of Axelrod's "authentic" candidates. Our new governor, Deval Patrick's 'yes we cans" have turned into, "don't give up on me." Same rhetoric-same inexperience.
Shame on anyone who falls for this again. "I'm a uniter not a divider." Yeah-right.

[tom in butte]

Either Obama or Hillary can defeat McCain or McMean as his staff calls him, McCain is a horrible debater, lazy, lost, old, confused, a flip flopper and born again conservative for the moment, and will look like a lost senior citizen ("Grumpy Old Men", when matched up against either Obama or Hillary, the best thing about Obama is he can argue for the Future and against McMean's defense of the worse president ever broke back George (as in the deficit and world opinion of this great Nation).

[Frank Tillery]

OBAMA-HAGEL '08

[John]

would you send your child to a scholl where the principle did cocaine? would mcdonald's hire you if you told them you did cocaine in the past.

why is the president's post so cheap?

donotvoteforobama.com

[Chris]

Don't underestimate Hillary, she can beat McCain. She's smart, she's tough and she's a great debater.

[Joe]

The senators are elected to make decisions on behalf of you (after all we all pay there salaries) and thus I don’t think they should be voting “present”. If someone votes present 130 times due to conflict of interest then they have no business in public office.

Any job interview one goes to most certainly will face the question, what experience you bring to this job? During the debate in LA, the moderator asked a question something like - Romney may be better qualified to be the president because of his CEO experience and how you both will respond to that. Mr. Obama having no experience to bring to the table attacked back by questioning Mr. Romney’s return on investment so far. The more experienced candidate gave a well thought answer from her experience that for starters government is not exactly like a company since it’s for the people and by the people. Just one example, folks the answers and decisions to tough situations come from experience and can’t be staged or written by a good speech writer. As much as I like to see someone from my state be the next president, there is a better qualified candidate for the job. Go HRC.

[Andy]

Gotta agree that a Clinton nomination = republican in the white house. While I think many of the old school democrats may prefer Hillary, they'll vote for whoever gets the nomination. Obama will command way more vote from independents and even republicans. Obama will win the election.

If we get Hillary, we can say hello to McCain for 4 years. If we get Obama, then we will finally get a pres who knows what he is doing.

[mona]

I say you all need to take a stroll in the park and wait until the votes are all counted. There have been numerous times she said and I quote, "She doesn't believe in polls, she believes in people, " and I have been to many of her rallies way back in November when she was ahead in the polls where she told her supporters not to pay attention to the polls because there was alot of work to do between now and February 5th. Hillary never takes anything for granted!! She got this far in life working hard and she will continue to work hard even if she is not the democratic nominee. She could have chosen all her married life to take a back seat to Bill Clinton but didn't. Instead after an 8 year presidency she continues to be a public servant to our country. She is definitely a remarkable woman.

Hillary for president 08

[L D Madison]

Dem Debaters.
They did not stand up for equal rights for all debaters, exp. Gravel and Kuchinich. What makes you think they would talke the opportunity to stand up for your right to communicate. The forest starts with the trees.

[Beska]

I don't know if I would send a child to a scholl [sic] where the principle [sic] did cocaine, but I can guarantee that I don't take political advice from people that can't even approximate correct spelling or punctuation.

[Aguilar]

It doesnt look good for Obama in fact. I'm a Latino in Ohio and I've heard from relatives in Los Angeles they're all supporting Clinton. They went with a familiar name, Bush, last time and now they're making a similar sheeplike mistake with another familiar name, Clinton. Look beyond the dynasty friends. Please reconsider.

[Ryan Healey]

HILLARY AS THE NOMINEE = A CLINTON WHITE HOUSE

McCain's age, health and the odd history of his wife are all going to catch up to him before November. Also, once he has the nomination, his "we did the right thing in Iraq" stance is going to cause him alot of trouble with the American people once they start to pay attention to the two nominees and compare them issue by issue. Obama simply can't hold up. Have you see how poorly he does in debates?? Let's pray the Democrats come to their senses and nominate Hillary, who knows how to handle the incoming fire.

[GregB]

With all the bitter division and strife on the Republican side, it seems that a Democratic victory in November in all but assured. The only thing that could trip up the Democrats at this point would be if Hillary wins the nomination. That is probably the only thing that will energize the Republicans enough to set aside their own internal disagreements and come to the polls in a massive "anti-Hillary" vote. Many Republicans will refuse to vote for McCain, but those same Republicans will certainly mobilize to vote against Hillary.

Hillary Clinton = best way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

[Gavin]

"the election wasn't 30 days ago. It's today. And as of today it's very close."

Actually, about half the voters of the state -have- been voting for 30 days: Early voting trends will be a huge push for Clinton, as she had double-digit leads in the state a month ago, Obama has been steadily closing the gap but it won't be enough for a full on route.

At the end of the day, Clinton will have more delegates, but Obama will have collected enough to hang in and keep fighting, hoping to keep his momentum climbing.

Tonight and tomorrow will really end up being a massive spin battle, and I think Clinton is already attempting to set the stage by keeping expectations low.

Think about New Hampshire, the story wasn't that Obama had closed a huge gap to come within 3% of the total popular vote and in fact winning the same amount of delegates--which elect primary winners--but the story was a "Clinton Comeback" from a state she should have won handily.

It was a master PR move, and I think we are going to see some of that this week.

[Don't be lulled]

Obama Supporters:

PLEASE VOTE AND GET YOUR FRIENDS TO THE POLLS!

Lowering expectations is one way to suppress the turnout.
Look what happened in New Hampshire....

Vote vote vote!

[Shelly]

You people who so confidently claim McCain will win the election if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination really are funny.

You seriously think that 71% of the country that can't stand dubya and his 'war' are going to vote for a war-mongering McCain?

Please. There are only so many morons in this country and they do NOT hold a majority.

If Obama does win, let's hope he isn't another Jimmy "leaders for a change" Carter.

And if Hillary wins, let's hope the media refrains from their clearly negative slants (read the headlines people - it's right there BEFORE you even get into the story) and let's her turn this country around.

And stop repeating the garbage you have been brainwashed with by the biased media. I've seen it once in the news, I don't need to see it again by a 'commenter'

[David]

To those who said, Hillary nomination means McCain in Whitehouse, I say Amen. That is because I intend to vote for Obama, not Hillary. If no Obama, then its gonna be mcCain. I guess there are many more out there, that are thinking the same thing as I do.

The important thing is not who can beat who in a debate, it is who is better for the country and for the world. The job of US president doesn't stop with US, it affects the whole world, more than presidents/PM of any other country on earth. So, think big. Think global. Think about the future. Think about the environment. Think about life after election day, not just the 4 years from that day, but for 400 years. We can starve and reduce the deficit, but we can't live without water, and won't live if we can't breath. Think about it.

[Skipper]

Let's be realistic. I am black & I know America will not
elect a black president. If we do not want another
republican president we must vote for Hillary. I would
like to see a black president, but I don't live in a fantasy world.

[On And On]

Wow - gone are the days of professional, objective journalism.

You guys over here at the L.A. Times aren't professional enough to even TRY to hide your bias.

Totally sickening.

[Kashy]

I'm a New Yorker and I think this nation had enought clinton politics. Why can't this country and the democratic party move away from the old history of almost 40 years of clintons.

As far as the debates- I don't trust her. In New Hampshire she cried, In Nevada old Billy Boy accused voter fraud, In SC- well they better not go back again to ask for votes they have insulted the intelligence of black voters and paid a heavy price- African American lash out across this country.

Obama plays it straight, he doesn't calculate every little word he says.

I still think Hillary because of all the early voting will win Calif- If Obama does its a new day for this democracy.

[KTLee]

It's interesting that President Clinton is able to help his wife's campaign so much. Where was he when Al Gore needed him in 2000? Where was he when we all needed him to keep Bush and Cheney out of the Whitehouse?

For those who are too young to remember, Al Gore, Clinton's VP, should have been able to glide into the presidency on Clinton's coattails if the Clinton years had really been as rosy as some are now trying to paint them. Instead, Gore's only chance of being elected was to put as much distance as possible between himself and the disgraced, disbarred, impeached President Clinton.

A stained blue dress, a lie under oath to Congress and the American people, and a ridiculous hedge regarding the meaning of the word "sex" enabled Republicans to claim they had cornered the market on decency, integrity, "family values."

The Bush-Cheney reign of terror is part of the Clinton legacy. If Senator Clinton wants to count her husband's presidency as part of her experience, she owns that, too.

Yes, a Clinton nomination = McCain in the Whitehouse, or Romney, or even (shudder) Huckabee.

[timothy roberts of california.]

Obama is what we need in this country to up lift americans out of their seat.i love Mrs.Clinton but at this time and age CHANGE is important if you look at all the presidents we have had in this U S of A,they haven't done anything to make this country better but give us wars.Race wise is a sad thing if people vote against Obama because thier not seeing the big picture he has the ideas that this country need to move forward to becoming a great state and i think no one can do it not even a female nor any other male but obama is fair and its time for that.From the Washingtons to the bushs nothing has come good from them.Mr.Clinton,Mr.JFK,and the very few presidents the was in office made a change and they were mistreated.Don't get me wrong it's time for a female to run thing but we need to let the civil rights way of things go through the door first.Go!!Obama GO

[timothy roberts of california.]

Obama is what we need in this country to up lift americans out of their seat.i love Mrs.Clinton but at this time and age CHANGE is important if you look at all the presidents we have had in this U S of A,they haven't done anything to make this country better but give us wars.Race wise is a sad thing if people vote against Obama because thier not seeing the big picture he has the ideas that this country need to move forward to becoming a great state and i think no one can do it not even a female nor any other male but obama is fair and its time for that.From the Washingtons to the bushs nothing has come good from them.Mr.Clinton,Mr.JFK,and the very few presidents the was in office made a change and they were mistreated.Don't get me wrong it's time for a female to run thing but we need to let the civil rights way of things go through the door first.Go!!Obama GO

[PicassoInActions]

REgardless who is going to win Clinton or Obama at the end after they will make CLinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton they will sweep all democrats under one basket.
Republicans don't ahve that luxury.