Exit polls reveal some hidden secrets of California's voters

Nationally, Super Tuesday seems to have been the election that nobody lost. Everybody won something, enough to stay in the competition a few million dollars longer.

In California, exit polls produced a few nuggets of revealing information about voters' concerns and desires:

Despite the best efforts of Sen. Barack Obama including advertising, endorsements and the campaigning of Sen. Edward Kennedy, the Illinois senator made no significant inroads into the strength of Sen. Hillary Clinton in the state's large Latino community. So he lost the state.

About seven in 10 Latino voters chose Clinton, while only three of 10 voted for Obama.

And what made a significant impact was that about three in 10 Democratic votes ...

were Latino, almost twice the share of the Democratic vote as in 2004's primary. Unfortunately for Obama, who counted on his demonstrated strength in the African American community, less than one in 10 Democratic votes were black.

Of those, though, Obama reaped nearly eight of 10 black votes. Clinton got the other two.

About nine out of every 10 Democratic voters believe that Clinton is prepared to be commander-in-chief, while only about two-thirds think Obama is ready for that role. Yet there's not as much animosity between Clinton and Obama supporters as you might expect. More than half of each's voters say they would be satisfied with the other candidate.

On both the Republican and Democratic sides, the economy was the most important issue. But Mitt Romney, who ran as the candidate with the most business and economic acumen, got only slightly more than half the vote of those who saw the economy as most important. Sen. John McCain, who recently said he didn't know much about economics, still got nearly half that vote.

Romney did score, however, with those concerned about illegal immigration. Those who worried about that went strongly for the former Massachusetts governor.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Pat]

Despite Obama not fully capitalising on his recent surge, there is much still to play for him; a few more days and I think he could have made the breakthrough. As much as Clinton may feel a sense of relief, with Obama doing well in many states his credibility with voters will rise as a real possibilty come November and he has plenty of time to bring the latin onboard.

[bhe]

Asians which comprise of one in four Calif. population still have race issue. Most of them would not vote for African American, thats another reason Clinton wins Calif. I am female Asian and voted for Obama. I was disappointed that he didn't win Calif.

[Alan]

Another facotr in the campaign: age. Senator Clinton did extremely well among voters over 65; Senator Obama won big among younger voters.

But the most important comment in the article is that the supporters of one is ready to support the other candidate. A unified Democratic party is very bad news for the GOP.

[Keith]

The Republican turn-out was paltry compared to Democrats. Maybe conservatives have just tuned out.
The economy thing is funny about McCain, and I'm sure will be used with great vigor in the presidential election by the eventual Democrat nominee. McCain is just going to get shellacked in the general election. I hope all of you conservative Republicans remember that you chose to stay home last night over the presidential term.

[sjl]

Despite the media pile on how obama would win CA the last week HILLARY WON and WON big. Obama had an impressive win with 3 states, but if one fairly provides analysis, one would have to ask wheres the beef? He won states that wouldn't matter to the General Election for Democratic win, as per the voter turnout. He hasn't won a major state except IL. All the odds have been against Hillary with the media, the rebpus and the obama revolution and the old guard pushiing obama down our throats, and HILLARY pulled it off and the sweetest of all in CA and MA, and not one can congratulate her. Who can win the General and beat the rightwing crackheads? Its not obama.

[tsr]

Congrats to Senator Hillary Clinton on winning the big states. She is the strongest candidate for President.

I live in Florida and voted for her. She won Florida but that win seems to be ignored by the media.

I am a 50 year old Asian female and I will support Hillary all the way to the White House.

[M.L. Johnson]

It seems that the news media as well as the pundtits are avoiding the obvious voting patterns that would seem to indicate a considerable racial undertone with the Latino community. As a black man living in Los Angeles I have seen racial conflicts escalate in the past few years between Black and Latino Americans. These conflicts, which have often escalated to the level of violence in the public schools and even murder on the streets of L.A. not to mention the Jail/Prison system in the County aswell as the State. Yet when the VAST majority of Latino voters polled State that their reasons in voting for Clinton is the economy. The majr question not being asked is; Are the the Lation votes actually for Clinton or are they in reality votes against Obama for racial reasons. It's a very sticky subject but one that needs to be addressed not only for the election but fr the future of the Black Latino communities as well as the Nation as a whole..

[Manny]

Lost among these few nuggets is the Asian-American factor. The group went overwhelmingly to the Clinton column. One can argue that indeed, Mrs. Clinton, has a larger base than Obama. This is very significant because, in more ways than one, California looks more like the real America.

[Al]

What I am surprised about is that the people in California are not tired of the career Politian. The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result (Not from Webster’s). That is what you are getting when you vote for Hillary Clinton, she takes money from special interest groups, who will control her and how she votes. Bill wants back in the white house and Hillary is his ticket to get there. Maybe Californians should read the book For Love of Politics Bill & Hillary the White House Years

[Dave]

The biggest issue with Obama is that he's never held a job. He's done a little civil rights law and some law for wealthy friends, but that's it (other than less than a full term in Senate).

Having never faced a reduction in force or any other aspects of the workplace, the only people he will resonate with are those who are living in the 60's during the LBJ era.

[Pacific John]

"Yet there's not as much animosity between Clinton and Obama supporters as you might expect."

...despite the best efforts of the press.

[SharonAustinTX]

It would be helpful if the LA Times and all media would tell us how the early voters/mail in ballots broke down. This would give us the total picture not only in the results, but because so many people voted early before the intense campaigning went on. Thank you.

[mariann]

Obama needs include more appeal on the voter's economic needs, paint Clinton as "status quo", and spend more TIME in the bigger delegate-rich states FROM THIS POINT FORWARD (that's why he lost California, while Clinton won mostly on time and name recognition)

[Steve Keegan]

I am 35 years old, and this is the first vote I have ever casted with national implications that I felt actually counted for something. Congratulations to both parties for moving up the California primaries. For the first time EVER, the largest state in the Union, actually got a say in the future of this country. Now if the local media outlets can actually learn how to take an accurate poll for once, we will be in good shape. They were only about 20 points off in both races. Nothing serious.

[mona]

I am a HIllary supporter and I will admit it was a draw tonight. Irregardless of the delegates which I am sure the Obama camp will now say is most important after saying it didn't matter in Florida, there was only a 100,000 difference in the popular vote. Obama won the most states but Hillary won the more populated states, yet overall with the popular vote the democrats were split. However I found it most interesting tonight that majority of those who voted for Obama make an income of 150,000 and above versus Hillary's voters majority of her voters make 45,000 and below. I find this interesting on two levels when it comes to Obama's platform. He likes to spout at his campaigns and debates how he does not take lobbyist money because it influences politicians. Well it is obvious with the income level of his supporters he has his own personal support of lobbyists.He has also run a campaign heavily and publicly endorsed by Hollywood and if you don't consider Hollywood the biggest lobbyist of all then someone should redefine lobbying. On his platform regarding politics of old he needs to remember it is those politics that gave him the privilege to run for president. It's not a perfect government but it is one that was built on the hard work and sweat of our forefathers and you should not degrade that just to convince a whole generation to elect you. It is great Obama is building momentum and getting our young people involved but you should also maintain a respect for the old.

[Jim Fung]

I'm waiting for the press to pick up on the fact that according to the exit poll on MSNBC, Hillary won the votes of CA Democratic primary voters who considered health care the most important issue, 60-31%.

Health care won California for Hillary. i wish the media would stop focusing on race, ethnicity, or gender as explanatory variables.

[Bill R.]

I am alarmed at a report that as many as 750 thousand votes were thrown out because some voters didn't realize they were supposed to mark a "bubble" on party affiliation, many of them independents. Apparently also a number of independents were turned away from the polls by election officials. This really taints the result, since we know most of these independents would have gone for Obama.

[CD]

As a Latino voter I don't understand how the majority of Latinos in the state voted for Clinton. Perhaps it had a lot to do with lack of knowledge of who Obama is, but it perplexes me how the majority of Latinos who may be of immigrant status to this country could back a candidate who refuses to give drivers licenses to undocumented immigrants. Obama was really the only candidate that stood up and said I am not going to point the finger and penalize these people for coming to this country for a better future because of the horrible economic conditions in their own country brought about by American corporations. We all know undocumented immgrants are in this country, that they are going to drive if they have a car, and that to penalize them for this and restrict them from obtaining auto insurance is moronic. I don't get it.

[Toby]

Hopefully, this is a revelation for the Black Community that Latino voters are NOT friendly to the needs of the Black Community. Blacks should be voting Republican if they are to have any hope of stopping the invasion from the Latino third world and reclaiming their communities, jobs, and political clout.

[Anonymous]

I believe Sen. Obama is an unifying force and Sen. Hillary is divisive. She talks about her 35 years of experience, but very few media people actually evaluate the contents of her experiences. She says she is for women, but she and her husband courted (before she decided to run for President) leaders of Dubai where women are degraded and unions are not allowed to form; no media people have asked how much money did the Clintons receive for courting Middle East leaders. How much money did the Clintons receive from their relations with Walmart and Tyson when they sold their stock (before she decided to run for President)? These companies have treated their employees horribly, as Hillary now states she is for mandated universal health care. Why doesn't the media ask how she will enforce such a mandate? The Clintons were middle class when they came to the Whitehouse; now some say they are worth $50 million, how?

Too much time is being spent by "old school" leaders repaying their obligations to ex-President Bill Clinton. Hillary is riding on his coat tails and the public goes along with what is seen on TV that has very little analysis of issues.

[Tom J]

I think the endorsements came too late to have had an effect on any voters other than those already wavering. Those who had already decided to vote for Clinton might have been a bit 'tilted' by the endorsements, but not enough to reach the needed 'tipping point'. Given a couple more weeks, that point might have been reached as those voters learned more about Obama. First you see a candidate as a posslibility, then you learn mroe about him, then you decide. The endorsements only got those voters to the first step.

I'm still wondering if the Clintons weren't playing the 'code words' game that Team Bush played earlier with the evangelicals. Use words that mean something to a particular group (Latinos) but could be expected to sail right over the heads of other groups (whites and blacks).

I'll tell you why. When a 'normal' person inadvertently insults a friend, they're quickly apologize for the perception as soon as they realize offense has been taken. Their friend is their first concern. They don't get indignant and blame their friend. They say "I'm so sorry! That isn't what I meant!"

In the case of the Bushes and the Clintons, they only said "That isn't what I meant - you should know better!" - with a followup of blaming the media and their opponents. iow, the coded message remained : "You know what we mean, but to win this election we can't really say it."

[jj]

It is disappointing that race is an issue for Latinos and Asians in this election. But then, the same can be said about African Americans, who too, cannot see beyond their own race.

[Celso Bernal]

I am a Mexican and I recently became a US citizen and this was my first time voting. I voted for Hillary because I think she has more experience with politics. Obama is also a very strong candidate, but I like Hillary more because of the way she communicates her ideas. I did not considered the candidates race or gender in order to make my decision. My co-workers who are also Mexican also voted, and some of them voted for Obama and others for Hillary without caring about the gender or ethnicity of the candidates. I believe that the gender or ethnicity do not matter when making these type of decisions, but the experience and confidence each candidate portrays.

[Lee W.]

You wrote, "Sen. John McCain, who recently said he didn't know much about economics, still got nearly half that vote," but YOU do not know much about McCain, since you should have known better after watching Tim Russert ask that question to McCain on national televsision in the most rescent debate. Are YOU up on the news or are you just misinforming for the heck of it?

[jblee]

California was the big prize yesterday and I'm glad Hillary Clinton won. All the endorsements by the big-names for Barack Obama muddied his message. He should have concentrated on letting the voter know where he stands on issues - he should have been able to flesh out his ideas.

But in the end, it didn't seem to matter since the voters were clearly influenced by race and gender when voting for their choice. Some of the comments bemoaning that fact were interesting. As a woman, I felt at the beginning that the white male vote would not go to Clinton, and perhaps would harm her. Stats show that Barack got most of the white male vote. So the voters all have their fears and their biases be it white, black, hispanic, asian or whatever.