Rash of new New Hampshire polls

Courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com, here's a look at a rash of polls in New Hampshire following the outcomes in the Iowa caucuses.

DEMOCRATIC RACE (Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards)

CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire: Obama, 33%; Clinton, 33%; Edwards, 20%.

American Research Group:                         Obama, 38%; Clinton, 26%; Edwards, 20%.

Concord Monitor:                                       Obama, 34%; Clinton, 33%; Edwards, 23%.

Rasmussen:                                               Obama, 37%; Clinton, 27%; Edwards, 19%.

Of note: The Clinton camp, understandably, focused on the two surveys that showed the race a draw, spotlighting them in a release sent out with the headline, "Where is the Bounce?"

The missive, penned by Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn, asserts that the two polls demonstrate that Obama received no boost from his solid Iowa win. He choose to ignore, of course, the two that show otherwise. Here's the RealClearPolitics link that details the trend line for all these surveys and others in the Democratic contest.

REPUBLICAN RACE (John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul)

CNN/WMUR/UNH:                  McCain, 33%; Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 14%; Paul, 9%.

American Research Group:     McCain, 39%; Romney, 25%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 7%; Paul, 6%.

Concord Monitor:                   McCain, 35%; Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; Paul, 7%.

Rasmussen:                           McCain, 31%: Romney, 26%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 8; Paul, 14%.

Of note: No campaign bothered to point this out in a release, but it's clear there's no Huckabee bounce in New Hampshire, following his Iowa triumph. But he wasn't expecting one -- South Carolina is his next target.

Romney clearly was hurt by the Iowa results, but he's not out of it yet. And the battle between Giuliani and Paul at the back of the pack certainly bears watching.

Here's the RealClearPolitics link for the GOP trendline.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[William Burdett]

Thank you for posting all of the recent numbers. I can only hope that the rest of the mainstream media will follow suit; so far they seem to have inexplicably gone along with Mark Penn and focused only on the CNN and Corcord Monitor polls, even though the numbers from Rasmussen and ARG were released along with them on Saturday morning.

[Rick Huffman]

Its Hillary or no vote. Americans are the most stupid of voters, after all they elected George Bush twice. We deserve what we get.

[julie fulton]

Has anyone considered that these polls are done on traditional (old fashioned) phone lines? The vast majority of young people are using cell phones exclusively and are not being included in these polls. That would give Obama and Huckabee higher numbers and Clinton and Romney lower numbers than the polls indicate.

Just a though.

[John F]

Polls are about as correct as the sky is red. Polls did not predict Huckabee and Obama winning Iowa. These polls could be suspect as well. One state took a great candidate out. Joe Biden. Now a candidate with vague ideas and empty platitudes is propelled forward by 1/30 the population of Iowa or only 100,000. To speak of such a dismal turnout as a success is crazy. The Republicans only mustered a little less than the amount that voted for Obama. Only a third of them voted for Huckabee or 1/100 of the population of Iowa.

The problem we face is that the turnout in the general election has to pick between the two nominees that the extreme minority of our country picks. By the time my primary, maryland, comes around all picks will be moot and I don't even get to cast a vote for the best candidate, Biden.

Let's all try to fix the system and really get a consensus candidate from the majority of American people not 100,000 in Iowa.

[Jonathan L]

Just a comment to John F, actually the polls in Iowa very much predicted Obama and Huckabee to win. That was the big news heading intot he caucus that Obama, for the first time in the race, had passed Clinton in Iowa and that the gaps between them in New Hampshire and South Carolina were both shrinking rapidly. The polls are never perfect but a random sampling with a + or - %3 margin is often pretty accurate. Obviously you have to take into account who actually responds to these surveys and who doesn't actually have a land line, but they are a pretty good measure of public opinion. Again they did accurately (within a couple percentiles) predict Iowa.

[Eric J]

The American People vote for buzz words like "Change" and "Baby Killers" Not on substance or records or experience. The average American voter is truly an American Idiot.( Listen to the Greenday song and you'll get the American Idiot reference).I agree with the one person who said look at this stupid nation who voted W Bush in TWICE and then has the nerve to complain about it.This is the only nation where you can STEAL an election as well. Al Gore WON the popular vote yet LOST the election due to stolen and antiquated electoral votes. Can a nation,as a whole, be any more ludicrous? Can anyone say "Fall of Rome"?

[Sean V]

Rick -

Have you considered that George W. Bush was elected neither time and was, instead, installed by fiat? You can be certain that those responsible for this would love to see Hillary in the White House as a neocon-lite alternative, given that the GOP hasn't a prayer of holding the presidency (unless the Supreme Court interjects or Diebold/ES&S come through with a fraudulent vote count).

[Cara Prado]

More recent polling this evening has Obama up by as much as 13 points in N.H.

As X-Patriate says, "Let the steam rise up" to "Pennsylvania Avenue"!

Great Obama theme song:

http://xpatriate-greetingsfromlafayettepark.blogspot.com/

[paul]

Obama should pick Edwards as his Attorney General.

[Alex]

Looks like Obama will win both NH and SC, which will lead to him becoming the Democratic nominee. For the first time in my life (I'm 36), I'm actually excited about a nominee and will definitely vote and continue to donate to Obama.

If for some horrible reason Hillary gets the nomination, I will vote for Huckabee. I would never in a million years vote for Hillary, Romney, McCain and especially Giuliani. These four are all the same.