New California poll bad news for Giuliani

Fresh polls aplenty on the presidential races today, including one gauging voter attitudes in crucial California. (It's been a long, long time since that adjective was attached to the state during primary season.) And if there's one candidate for whom the surveys are a downer, it's got to be Rudy Giuliani.

In line with Giuliani's collapsing poll numbers nationwide and in other states of late, the new L.A. Times/CNN/Politico.com survey finds him lagging behind a resurgent John McCain among Republicans in California -- and fighting for second place with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. By contrast, a statewide Field Institute poll a month ago showed Giuliani in the lead -- the position he enjoyed in virtually every California poll for more than a year. (See the trend line here.)

The new poll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, testifies to McCain's comeback in the GOP presidential contest. In the December Field poll, he was in fourth place among those Republicans likely to vote in California's Feb. 5 primary, with 12%. In the new survey, his 20% support among likely voters puts him in first place. Romney is next, at 16%, followed by Giuliani (14%), Huckabee (13%) and Fred Thompson (6%).

The poll reports little such upheaval in the Democratic race. Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama ...

by 16 percentage points among likely voters in the party's primary, 47% to 31%. (John Edwards is a distant third, with 10%.) The Field poll had Clinton leading Obama by 14 points.

Some caveats are in order. The new poll's margin of possible error, for both sampling groups, is large -- plus or minus 6 percentage points. Also, about six in 10 of the likely GOP voters say they might change their minds about whom they are backing. And, following the polling debacle in New Hampshire's Democratic primary, all surveys should be approached with caution.

Still, the new poll (which you can read more about here) is one more bit of evidence of the price Giuliani has paid for ignoring the Iowa caucuses and, in the final leg of the New Hampshire campaign, scaling back in that state -- all with an eye to scoring a win in Florida's Jan. 29 primary. The strategy caused him to fade from view over the last month or so -- and clearly cost him support.

Three new national polls -- USA Today/Gallup, CBS News/New York Times, ABC News/Washington Post -- underscore Giuliani's tailspin. All put McCain atop the pack, to greater or lesser degrees. Giuliani, who routinely led the national polls last year, runs third place in two and fourth in the other.

As if Giuliani's camp needed it, there was still another discouraging poll result for him today. In Florida -- his self-selected make-or-break turf -- a survey by Connecticut's Quinnipiac University finds, essentially, a four-way tie. The numbers: McCain, 22%; Giuliani, 20%; Huckabee, 19%; Romney, 19%.

On the positive side for Giuliani, his spirits no doubt were boosted by well-received campaign appearances Sunday. And he's picked up something that's a rarity for most Republicans: a celebrity endorsement.

Jon Voight, a onetime leading man who has resurrected his acting career through character parts, announced today he supports Giuliani and plans to stump for him in Florida and California. We've got to give Voight credit -- he ain't a frontrunner.

-- Don Frederick

   

Comments

[Wendy73]

McCain the liberal is getting most of his votes from independents and Democrats. That seems so bizarre to me. Huckabee does well among the "one of us" evangelicals because of his ministry, but he too is too liberal for a Reagan Republican Party. Guiliani is not a social conservative. Mitt Romney is the true conservative Republican. Look at the numbers, he had the led in the conservative base votes in Iowa and in New Hampshire. Now that is a telling story. We vote for McCain or Huckabee and the GOP can truely say goodbye to the Reagan principles that have made the Republician party strong in this nation

[Wendy73]

Look at the results of the Iowa and New Hampshire votes:

McCain the liberal gets the independant and democrat votes.
Huckabee gets the ever faithful evangelical sheep
Romney gets the true conservative ReaganRepublican votes.

[Dave]

It will be interesting to see if McCain can hold up with his stance on immigration.

So many people are against him on this issue.

[rjb]

FRED THOMPSON IS A TRUE CONSERVITIVE, LEADER AND WILL WALK TALL AND HANDLE THIS COUNTRYS PROBLEMS...CALIFORNIA IS THE MOST 'DRAINED' STATE IN THE COUNTRY, AND IT NEEDS A REPUBLICAN 'TURNOVER' TO CLEAN IT UP.. FRED THOMPSON IS THE MAN..YOU ALL WILL SEE IN THE END OF THIS YEAR.

[Brad]

Vote for peace.

Vote for Ron Paul.

[Jim Dobson]

I am voting for Romney. He inspires and brings hope to this country. No other candidate can fix the economy and keep American competitive internationally. I like Romney more and more. He has the expertise, brains, and values to lead and improve this country.

[jatcagirl]

isn't the new LA times poll the one that put ron paul at 8%? shouldn't ron paul be listed between huckabee's 13% and thompson's 6%?

if anyone is still thinking about voting for giuliani, please read the jan 08 vanity fair article "what giuliani doesn't want voters to know."

it's a crazy race with the liberal KOS asking michigan dems to vote for romney tomorrow to keep the repubs in turmoil

as a lifelong republican, i see only one clear choice. read for yourself www.ronpaul2008.com

[Elliott Bradley]

With the surge of Hililary support in California many excecutive blacks are looking for an alternitive to the Clinton machine. We are suffering from Clinton fatigue. The mentality of the Clintons as its relates to black folks is "I am hear to help you", but not as a peer group the partner with you. If Obama looses I hope he has a third party run up his sleeve. or Mc Cain is sure to get my support.

[Mr. Unite Us]

Obama leads among by 3&. Clinton leads among women by 13%.

[Charles King]

I think that it a good thing that people who break the law should have to answer for it .yes i am talking about illegal broder crossing