Opinion: McCain set to go on a roll?
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Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina could be excused for irrational exuberance tonight as he basked in the glow of the hard-fought victory by his friend and ally, John McCain, in the Palmetto State’s GOP presidential primary. Still, Graham’s attempt at political analysis left something to be desired.
The Times’ Maeve Reston was on the scene at McCain’s victory party in Charleston when Graham, the campaign’s co-chair in South Carolina, predicted his favored candidate now would have ‘unstoppable momentum’ leading up to Florida’s Jan. 29 primary.
If so, McCain would be the first -- in either the Republican or Democratic races -- to truly capture the ‘Big Mo’ this year. His fortunes in Florida now should be improved, but it’s hard to imagine GOP voters in the Sunshine State will now be swept off their feet by McCain-a-mania -- especially given that he won in South Carolina by all of three percentage points and garnered just a third of the total vote.
As we noted recently in print, this has been a surge-less campaign so far.
In the Republican race ...
Mike Huckabee’s Iowa win made him a contender, but all it got him short-term were third-place finishes in New Hampshire and Michigan. Similarly, McCain rode out of New Hampshire with a crucial victory ... and promptly came in second to Mitt Romney in Michigan.
Romney, in turn, went from 1st in his native state Tuesday to 4th in South Carolina (he found solace in his triumph in Nevada’s caucuses today, ignoring the fact that only he and Ron Paul tried hard in the state).
Similarly, among the Democrats, Barack Obama’s win in Iowa -- and consequent jump in New Hampshire polls -- spurred predictions that he was on a roll that would sweep him to his party’s nomination. Then, of course, New Hampshirites actually voted ... and the Obama coronation came to a halt.
But Hillary Clinton’s upset victory in the Granite State can’t be seen as sparking a groundswell for her in the Nevada caucus contest that she won today by 5.5 percentage points. The New Hampshire win kept her from being possibly swamped by Obama and restored an advantage in the Nevada she long had enjoyed -- an advantage stemming from strong support from Latino voters.
If Clinton parlays her Nevada showing into a victory over Obama in the South Carolina’s Democratic primary next Saturday, we’ll give a nod to the power of momentum. But not until then.
-- Don Frederick