It doesn't necessarily stay in Vegas

LAS VEGAS -- Amid all the confusion of the Nevada Democratic caucuses, from people leaving in frustration to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claiming separate victories, an interesting pattern emerged. And building on what happened in the "non-primary" that Democrats conducted in Michigan, it is going to make next weekend's South Carolina primary "verrrrry interesting," as Arte Johnson used to say.

Nevada's caucus was the first full Democratic presidential nominating contest to include a significant number of black voters, and Obama won overwhelmingly here in predominately black Precincts 4028 and 4461, reflecting what national polls show has been a significant shift in support by black voters from Clinton to Obama.

Obama was similarly strong in in last week’s Michigan primary. "Uncommitted" –- seen largely as votes for Obama and John Edwards, whose names were not on the ballot –- took 68% of the African American vote, with Clinton getting 30%, according to exit polls. But those results came in a race in which only half the candidates were on the ballot and no one was awarded any delegates, dampening turnout.

On Saturday, the votes mattered. Obama’s success among black voters wasn’t enough to give him the win. About 8% of Nevada residents are African American, compared with nearly 13% nationally. But Obama’s growing support among African Americans could shape ...

a different outcome in the next matchup in South Carolina, where as many as half of the state’s Democrats are black. And after that comes the Feb. 5 lineup of states with large minority populations.

As long as we're in Vegas, let's take you inside one of the caucus sites. Saturday morning, the energy was high in Precincts 4028 and 4461, among six precincts that met at the Doolittle Community Center about eight miles north of the Las Vegas Strip. Precincts 4028 and 4461 met in the main gym with its walls of white-washed brick. Precinct 4028 sat on on the blue plastic-coated bleachers lining the south wall and Precinct 4461 on the north bleachers.

The doors were supposed to open at 11 a.m. but by 10:30 a.m. more than 50 people were already in line. And once inside the caucus-goers traded cheers as they waited, giving the caucus the feel of a high school basketball game. "Obama means change," chanted the Obama group. "HRC, let's hear it for our nominee," was the response from the Clinton supporters.

Precinct 4028 captain Arianna Berengaut, a Democratic activist from Maryland, ran the process on the south wall. Slightly built, she had a voice that couldn't carry across all the bleachers on the south wall, so she had to move from one end ot the other repeating instructions.

The voting itself involved asking all the supporters in the Clinton section of the bleachers to hold up a hand, and then drop it as they were counted. It was repeated for the Edwards group -- one woman, Bobbie Whitmore, remained uncommitted when Edwards was declared unviable -- and for Obama.

In Precinct 4028, 156 people turned out, 115 for Obama and 40 for Clinton. Across the basketball court, 157 people turned out, 121 for Obama and 32 for Clinton.The rest in both precincts were either for Edwards or uncommitted, and neither reached the 15% viability threshold.

Then Berengaut kneeled on the varnished basketball court and pulled out her cellphone to use the calculator to determine which candidate won how many delegates to the county convention -- the next step in the process to pick the state's delegates to the national convention. The final tally in 4068: Obama got 13 delegates to three for Clinton.

The process itself left Obama supporter Thomas Bywaters cold. "This process is unbelievable," Bywaters, a 35-year-old special education teacher, said as Berengaut did the paperwork. "It's scary to me but if it's been successful in other places I guess it will work." He was particularly taken aback by the counting of hands, with no ballots to back it up. "I think I could come up with a better way myself," he said.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[DR Evans]

The Las Vegas Review Journal reports:

"Rumors abounded of voters being intimidated or otherwise mistreated by opposing campaigns. The Obama campaign, rather than concede defeat, vowed to investigate such claims.

"We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to 30 minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a nonuniform fashion," campaign manager David Plouffe said.

He said the improprieties combined with Clinton campaign "efforts to confuse voters" and urged people to call a special hot line to report such incidents."

Is the Times covering this story?

[Ronald Loui]

Actually, Artie Johnson used to say it was "verrrrrry verrrrry interesting" in his German accent. And speaking of Germany, don't forget that Germany loves Obama. That's with 0.00% African-American vote -- so broad is Obama's base. Actually, in Australia, Canada, France, Japan, many of our traditional allies, I wonder whether Hillary would even carry the old woman demographic, so popular is Obama reputed to be. So let's not be counting racial composition in every state. Obama has broad support, period.

Now, the interesting thing for California is that Hillary won Hispanics in NV with twice the margin that she won women. In part, that's because women under 45 still tend to choose Obama. But what is the special appeal of Hillary to Hispanics? And will the pattern continue in California? Or will more Californians break for Obama, where the Hispanic population is presumably better educated, more middle class, and more diverse? Someone please shed light on this. Why did the Hispanics vote for Hillary 3:1 in Nevada? What were they thinking?

[Jenna]

Latinos voted for Hillary because they aren't as easily moved by Obama's great platitudes. They remember the previous Clinton years and they were good to Latinos. There is no reason to believe that Hillary wouldn't do a great job and help usher in a new era of prosperity. Although it will probably be tight, I predict that Hillary will take California in part because of the support she will get from the Latino community.